Fenerbahce vs Nottingham Forest Prediction: Pain for Pereira on debut

Vitor Pereira’s first game as Nottingham Forest head coach comes in the Uefa Europa League on Thursday (17:45 GMT, TNT Sports 1), and it’s a tricky one as Fenerbahce host the first leg of their knockout phase play-off tie at the Sukru Saracoglu Stadium.

Below are my Fenerbahce vs Nottingham Forest predictions, alongside all the latest team news and match odds.

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Team News

Fenerbahce vs Nottingham Forest Odds

Fenerbahce are 5/4 favourites to take a lead back to England next week, implying a 44.4% probability of success, while Nottingham Forest are 11/5, or a 31.3% chance, to secure a famous win in Istanbul, with the draw offered at 23/10.

Match Result - Fenerbahce @ 5/4

Fenerbahce have won all four of their games this month, and now face a side, Nottingham Forest, yet to taste success in February, drawing at home to Crystal Palace (1-1) and Wolverhampton Wanderers (0-0) either side of a 3-1 loss at relegation rivals Leeds United.

It's fair to say the standard of opposition is higher in the Premier League than the Super Lig, but winning is a good habit, and Fenerbahce have some serious momentum behind them now, while Forest's confidence looks to be on the floor.

The Tricky Trees will hope for the 'new manager bounce' that often comes with the arrival of a fresh face in the dugout, and they did win three of their final four UEL league-phase games (L1).

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However, they only won one of their four away matches, beating Utrecht 2-1 on November 11 thanks to an 88th-minute strike from Igor Jesus. They also drew 2-2 at Real Betis and 0-0 at Sturm Graz, while in their most recent European away outing, at Braga on January 22, they lost 1-0.

Fenerbahce were beaten 1-0 in their last European home game, but that was against Aston Villa, who are third in the Premier League, 33 points ahead of 17th-placed Nottingham Forest.

Their first two home matches in the league phase ended 2-1 and 1-0 in their favour against OGC Nice and VfB Stuttgart, respectively, before they were held to a 1-1 draw in their third by Ferencvaros.

Forest are still missing several key players, and in a hostile Istanbul atmosphere, I don't fancy their chances on Thursday against a Fenerbahce side packing plenty of talent in the midfield and attacking third, with Kante and Matteo Guendouzi providing a solid base for the likes of Anderson Talisca and Marco Asensio to sprinkle their stardust.

Price Boosts - Matteo Guendouzi (FEN) To Receive A Card @ 11/5 5/2

Guendouzi was booked eight times for Lazio last season across all competitions, including once in the Europa League, and in 16 Serie A appearances in the first half of the current campaign, he was shown five yellow cards and one red card.

The 26-year-old switched Italy for Turkey in January as he completed a move to Fenerbahce, for whom he made an immediate impact, scoring and picking up a booking on debut in a 2-0 Super Cup victory over Galatasaray on January 10.

Guendouzi has made seven further appearances, starting five times, and in the latest, Saturday's 3-2 win at Trabzonspor, he was cautioned in the 44th minute.

The Frenchman, who averaged 1.1 fouls per 90 minutes in Serie A this season, could be lured into making a few fouls on Thursday against Forest midfielder Elliot Anderson, who is averaging 4.3 fouls won per 90 in the Europa League.

With Anderson suspended for Forest's previous European outing, the 4-0 thrashing of Ferencvaros on January 29, Ryan Yates, Ibrahim Sangare and Nicolas Dominguez started as the midfield three, and they drew three fouls apiece, while another midfielder, Douglas Luiz, was fouled twice in the 1-0 loss to Braga a week earlier.

So, there are plenty of Forest midfielders adept at earning free-kicks, which raises the possibility of Guendouzi making a few fouls and seeing a card.

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