Spain vs France Prediction: Bet on a low-scoring semi-final

We are down to four as the semi-finals of Euro 2024 lurch into view with, on paper, the most interesting one coming on Tuesday night as Spain take on France on BBC One (20:00 kick-off).

The French have not looked good but have made it this far, whilst the Spanish have clearly been the most impressive side so far in the tournament. Our Madrid-based La Liga expert has got the assignment for this one and you can check out his match preview and his Spain vs France Predictions below...

The first Euro 2024 semi-final takes place in Munich on Tuesday night as an impressive Spain look to overcome neighbours France, who have limped into the last four.

Five games in and Les Bleus still haven’t scored themselves from open play. Two own goals and one Kylian Mbappé penalty account for France’s disappointing goal tally of just three at this tournament.

They’ve been nowhere near their best in an attacking sense, with the likes of Mbappé and Antoine Griezmann subdued. Didier Deschamps’ side are experienced tournament campaigners though and despite their problems in the final third, France have come through a tough group and two tough knockout ties, having only conceded once in five outings in Germany.

France were worthy of their 1-0 victory over Belgium in the last 16 and while they only hit the target with two of their 19 attempts on goal, Deschamps would have felt like his team warranted the slice of good fortune that came their way late on as Jan Vertonghen diverted the ball into his own net to settle the game.

The quarter-final against Portugal in Hamburg was a different story, with neither side truly doing enough to force a breakthrough in a game that looked destined to go the distance from very early on. Mbappé and Griezmann were both replaced and it wasn’t really until substitutes Ousmane Dembélé and Marcus Thuram were introduced into the game that France started to look threatening.

Despite a few lively late bursts from the duo, the game went to penalties and a miss from João Félix ensured that Les Bleus progressed to a fourth semi-final in five major tournaments.

Their recent semi-final record is a good one with victories in the last four at the last two World Cups as well as Euro 2016. Spain by contrast, prior to this summer had only progressed to one semi-final since their victory at Euro 2012 which capped off La Roja’s golden era.

France may have the edge in terms of international experience, but a youthful Spanish attack has captured the imagination of neutrals at a tournament where many of the major European powers have failed to hit top gear or anything remotely close.

La Roja have fired in 11 goals across their five matches and will be feeling really good about their chances of going all the way after edging out hosts Germany 2-1 in Extra Time in the last round.

For long periods, Spain were the better side, taking the lead through the impressive Dani Olmo in the 51st minute, but as the match wore on, a physical German outfit began to turn the screw with Florian Wirtz forcing Extra Time with an 89th minute strike.

Luis de la Fuente had already withdrawn his front three by that point and must have been preparing himself for a barrage of criticism, with the hosts growing in confidence and the match seemingly heading for penalties. However, Spain found late inspiration from an unlikely source, with Mikel Merino heading home late in Extra Time to secure a famous victory for his team.

That was a seventh straight victory for this Spanish squad which came together at the start of June hopeful of mounting a serious challenge at Euro 2024, but perhaps not truly expecting it.

As we head into the final week of the tournament, young Spanish players have blossomed and the likes of Olmo and Fabián Ruiz have really risen to the task, ensuring Luis de la Fuente’s side head into the semi-finals as the outright favourites to lift the trophy.

Team News:

Continuity in team selection has helped Spain build momentum at this championship, but they’ll need to make at least three changes here, with Pedri sidelined through injury while defenders Dani Carvajal and Robin Le Normand are suspended. Captain Álvaro Morata is available though, with initial reports of a booking for him in Stuttgart last time out proving false.

At the back, De la Fuente is expected to introduce Nacho and Jesús Navas. Meanwhile, the absence of Pedri, who was on the wrong end of some rough challenges from Toni Kroos in the early stages of the quarter-final, is not as significant as it might seem given how well Olmo is playing. The RB Leipzig man was involved in both goals in that match and was already fighting hard for Pedri’s place in midfield.

France should be at full strength but there are still doubts about how badly Kylian Mbappé is being affected by the broken nose he sustained earlier in the tournament. Deschamps may consider attacking changes with Dembélé and Thuram options to bring in should he look to drop Griezmann or Randal Kolo Muani to the bench.

The French boss also has the option of restoring Adrien Rabiot to the midfield after the 29-year-old missed the last match due to suspension. Eduardo Camavinga may make way.

Spain vs France Odds

Spain head into the game as the 7/4 favourites in the Match Result market, with the Draw at 15/8 and France at 21/10. You can also back Spain to win the tie at 8/11 with France on offer at Evens to do likewise.

With just four goals scored in five games involving Les Bleus at this tournament, this does not have the makings of a thriller and you can back Both Teams to Score - No at 4/6 while Under 2.5 Goals is priced at 4/9 with Under 1.5 Goals on offer at 11/8.

France will be desperately hoping Mbappé can step up against the country where he’ll be playing his football next term. The 25 year old is 21/10 to score anytime and 4/1 to score first.

From a Spain perspective, striker Álvaro Morata leads the way at 5/2 to score anytime while Dani Olmo and Lamine Yamal are each available at 4/1 to get on the scoresheet.

There are also a wide range of popular bet builders to pick from with Spain to win, Under 2.5 goals and Spain to get the most corners looking good at 13/2.

Bet 1 - Spain Draw No Bet @ 8/11

While France have individuals capable of moments of brilliance, we’ve seen precious little of that from them at this tournament and by just about any measure, Spain have been much the more impressive team. De la Fuente’s lineup is balanced with their wingers causing endless problems for opposing full-backs while with the likes of Fabián and Olmo are capable of giving this French defence more problems than they’ve had to deal with in recent games.

It’s still likely to be a tight affair as semi-finals often are with the stakes so high, but it’s La Roja who look the team more likely to force a breakthrough in regular time and I’m backing Spain Draw No Bet at 8/11.

Bet 2 - Under 2.5 Goals & Over 29.5 Booking Points @ 21/20

It’s very hard to see this game serving up a load of goals despite Spain’s natural attacking intent. Given the pace France have in attack, we may see Luis de la Fuente’s team play a bit deeper than normal to avoid getting caught on the break and it’s unlikely we’ll get many clear opportunities in the opening stages.

The referee may still be busy though and France could try to replicate the physical approach used by Germany in their quarter-final against Spain. There were 13 yellows and one red dished out in that match and with the card count wiped clean ahead of the last four, there are no players who need to worry about a booking costing them their place in the final.

Given that, I’m using the #PickYourPunt builder to back Under 2.5 Goals and Over 29.5 Booking Points at 21/20.

Bet 3 - Spain 1-0 France @ 11/2

While much has been made of Spain’s good work in the opposing half of the pitch at Euro 2024, they’ve done plenty right at the other end too, conceding only two goals at this tournament, one of which was an own goal scored by Robin Le Normand who is suspended for this game.

Fresh from winning the Champions League, Nacho is a very capable deputy for him while even at the age of 38, there’s still plenty of gas left in the tank of Jesús Navas who should replace Carvajal at right back. With France lacking fluidity, I’m backing La Roja to keep it tight and am going for a 1-0 Spain win at 11/2 in the Correct Score market.

You can get all the latest betting prices for all the matches in this tournament on our Euro 2024 Odds page over on betfred.com

Betfred Match Offers:

Goal Fever

Throughout Euro 2024, Betfred are offering all customers a 25% cash bonus if your selected team in the Match Result market wins by 3+ Goals on selected matches. Spain vs France is part of this promotion, so if you back and team and they win by three or more, you would see 25% added to your winnings on that bet.

Double Delight & Hat-Trick Heaven

This Spain vs France game is also one for those who like a bit of a potential bonus in the first goalscorer markets. Should the player you bet on score first and subsequently go on to score a second in the match, we'll double the odds and if they get a hat-trick, we'll treble the odds!

Extra Time Rules

Throughout the knock-out stages of Euro 2024, Betfred are paying out on anytime goalscorer and player cards markets for the full 120 minutes, not just the 90, should a match go to Extra Time.

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish football for us here at Betfred Insights and he'll be following the Spanish national side throughout the Euro's for us. You can check out his and all the other Football Betting Tips from our writing staff on our main Football hub page.