Spain vs England Prediction: Three Lions to bring it home on penalties

Fasten your seatbelts, England are in another major final as they take on Spain in Berlin to decide who will be the Euro 2024 champions. Gareth Southgate's side have not been the best team at this tournament but they have continually found a way to win games in the knockout stage.

La Roja will provide the Three Lions with their toughest test yet, with Luis de la Fuente's side having been the most consistent team throughout the tournament. It all comes down to this. This group of England players and their head coach are on the cusp of greatness, how's your heart rate? Read on for my Spain vs England prediction, including match odds and team news.

Spain vs England Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Spain vs England page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Spain are 6/4 to win this final inside 90 minutes, giving them a 40% chance of victory. England are valued at 12/5, which gives them an implied probability of 29.4%. If you think that the final will go to extra-time, the draw can be backed at 15/8 (34.8%).

Spain are 8/11 (57.9%) to lift the trophy, while England are 11/10 (47.6%).

Both teams to score is on offer at 1/1 and over 2.5 goals is marketed at 11/8.

Dani Olmo and Harry Kane have both scored three goals at Euro 2024 so far, and they are priced at 18/5 and 2/1 respectively to score anytime.

Euro 2024 Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Euro 2024 Odds page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this competition.

Team News

Spain will be handed a double defensive boost for Sunday with both Robin Le Normand and Dani Carvajal returning from suspension and both should come straight back into the starting XI in place of Nacho and Jesus Navas respectively.

Striker Alvaro Morata is deemed to be fit to start after he was taken out by a security guard in an accident following their victory over France in the semi-final. Dani Olmo looks likely to keep his place in midfield after scoring yet another goal, filling in for Pedri who was injured against Germany.

England boss Southgate seems content with his team's new 3-4-2-1 shape but Luke Shaw will be pushing to start over Kieran Tripper at left wing-back. There are calls for Ollie Watkins, the match-winners against the Netherlands, to start in place of captain Harry Kane as he will look to stretch La Roja's defensive line.

Marc Cucurella to receive a card @ 5/2

It seems quite hard to believe but Spanish defender Marc Cucurella has gone through the tournament without picking up a yellow card so far. The Chelsea man has been penalised for seven fouls across the five matches La Roja have played in Germany over the past few weeks, but he has somehow managed to avoid a booking.

I think this can change in Sunday's showpiece against England, when he will be tasked in suppressing winger Bukayo Saka. Like most of the England players this tournament, Saka received his fair share of criticism for a lack of impact, but in the last two matches he has been brilliant.

He has looked like his confident self that we are so accustomed to seeing when he plays for Arsenal. His tidy ball work and driving runs are sure to give his fellow Premier League peer the run around on Sunday night.

Cucurella has quite a reckless nature when it comes to challenges and I think Saka can capitalise on this. The Three Lions man can use his body and his quick feet to spin the Spaniard, and once that happens, Cucurella will have no option but to foul him to snuff out any break.

Even if Saka were to go off and be replaced by Cole Palmer again, Cucurella knows all too well just how troublesome his Chelsea team mate will be to defend against. So if he's on for the 90, I think the left-back is worth backing to go into the book.

England to win on penalties @ 8/1

Well, a lot has happened since I tipped Switzerland to win the tie against England in the quarter-finals, I was wrong on that occasion and silenced, like most of the Three Lions' critics.

They are not the best footballing team in the world or even Europe, but damn they are effective. Gary Neville has constantly said that there is no one with as much tournament experience at international level than Southgate to lead England.

He's right, the football may not be to everyone's taste, but he has got this England team winning matches, scoring all five penalties in a shoot-out, and a nation believing again. In truth, we've been spoiled as we just expect the Three Lions to reach at least the semi-finals stage at tournaments now, when has that ever been the case?

So, I'm on the bandwagon now. It isn't always the best teams that win tournaments after all and I think we could have another Portugal '16 on our hands, in England's favour.

Southgate's style will be to nullify Spain and frustrate them, while hoping to catch them out on the break. However, I do not think that this final will be settled in either regulation or extra-time. I believe penalties are going to be needed once again, but after their flawless spot-kicks against Switzerland, I have full faith in the Three Lions to defeat Spain in a shoot-out. It's...

Correct score - 1-1 (in 90 mins) @ 5/1

As I think this final is going all the way, I have to go with a draw as my correct score in 90 minutes. I don't think there will be too many goals, as it has been a running theme throughout England's Euros campaign. So I think 1-1 would be a sensible way to go here.

Offers

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Betfred are running their famed Double Delight & Hat-trick Heaven Pre-Match offer on this match, meaning that if a player scores first and then nets again, you will be paid at double the odds. If he grabs a hat-trick, you will be paid at treble the odds!

GOAL FEVER - Place a Match Result single bet (Pre-Match), and if your team wins by 3 or more goals in selected matches, we’ll pay a 25% cash bonus on top of your winnings!

Place a bet on the Anytime Goalscorer market on any Euro 2024 Knockout match and if your player scores in Extra Time we'll pay you out as a winner.

Place a bet on the Player To Be Carded market on any Euro 2024 Knockout match and if your player is carded in Extra Time we'll pay you out as a winner.

You can read all our latest Euro 2024 Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.