Euro 2024 Team Betting Predictions: Italy

 | Wednesday 12th June 2024, 10:51am

Wednesday 12th June 2024, 10:51am

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Italy sent Wembley into meltdown after Roberto Mancini's side defeated England in the final of Euro 2020, but the defending champions have had an up-and-down last few years.

Do they have enough quality to retain their continental crown? The holders are much changed from three years ago - both on the pitch and in the dugout - but if they can get out of a tough group then, as they displayed at Euro 2020, they can’t be discounted. Below you can find my Euro 2024 Italy prediction, as well as assessment the squad and the latest top scorer odds.

Euro 2024 Predictions - Italy

  • Outright winners @ 16/1
  • To qualify from group @ 1/7
  • To win group @ 2/1
  • Stage of elimination - group stage @ 4/1
  • Top team goalscorer - Federico Chiesa @ 100/30

Despite their Euro 2020 heroics, the Azzurri are still coming to terms with missing out on World Cup qualification in 2022, and serious question marks remain over the strength of the current squad.

Former Napoli manager Luciano Spalletti - who ended their barren Scudetto-less run in 2023 - is now in the dugout after Mancini quit his post just over a year ago to take charge of Saudi Arabia. Despite taking over just before the conclusion of the campaign, Spalletti managed to get his country on the plane to Germany by beating Ukraine to second spot in England's qualification group.

Italy have been drawn into the 'Group of Death' alongside an unknown quantity in Albania and European heavyweights Spain and Croatia, so it looks as though every point will be vital.

The squad is relatively inexperienced - 15 of the 26 have 20 caps or fewer, with 25-year-old Gianluigi Donnarumma entrusted with the captaincy following Giorgio Chiellini's retirement, so perhaps the Azzurri will surprise a few in the summer.

Euro 2024 Odds


Goalkeepers: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Alex Meret, Guglielmo Vicario.

Defenders: Alessandro Bastoni, Raoul Bellanova, Alessandro Buongiorno, Riccardo Calafiori, Andrea Cambiaso, Matteo Darmian, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Federico Dimarco, Gianluca Mancini, Federico Gatti.

Midfielders: Nicolo Barella, Jorginho, Bryan Cristante, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Davide Frattesi, Nicolo Fagioli, Michael Folorunsho.

Forwards: Federico Chiesa, Stephan El Shaarawy, Giacomo Raspadori, Gianluca Scamacca, Mateo Retegui, Mattia Zaccagni.

Outright winners @ 16/1

Italy's qualification campaign was just as nervy as their bid to reach the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.

Spalletti's intention for this squad is "to win, not compete", and to be fair to him, nobody expected the Azzurri to go all the way three years ago, and 16/1 is full of value if you believe they're a dark horse.

There's six or seven nations that are priced up as likelier victors this summer, and the Italians can use that underdog card to their advantage, especially if they prevail from Group B.

Italy to win Euro 2024 at 16-1

To qualify from group @ 1/7

I'm surprised the price for this is so short, to be honest. Spain are favourites to win the group, but most fans will believe that second place will be a tussle between Croatia and Italy.

Croatia are always the dark horses who have surprisingly never been past the quarter-finals of the Euros despite their impressive World Cup record, and Albania, who qualified for only the second time ever, will be looking to spring some early upsets.

At the end of the day, this is a new-look, inexperienced Azzurri side, who may need to rely on the safety net of third place.

To win group @ 2/1

As inexperienced as Italy's squad appears, if they manage to top Group B, I have no doubts it'll be down to the genius of Spalletti - as mentioned above, he delivered Napoli's first title since the glorious days of Diego Maradona last season.

To be fair to Italy, they often make hard work of qualifying for tournaments, but once the tournament rolls around, they're usually a force to be reckoned with. If they were to top Group B, it'd certainly send a message to the rest of the competition.

Italy to win Group B at 2-1


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Stage of elimination - group stage @ 4/1

I'm going to stick my neck on the line here - I think that the Italians will struggle in Germany.

Despite winning Euro 2020, Italy’s recent tournament record includes two World Cup absences and two group-stage exits.

Spain fell at the last-16 hurdle as holders back in 2016 and Portugal followed that up in 2020. I believe that Italy could fare even worse given who's in their group, and the fact that their squad is inexperienced at this level.

Group stage elimination at 4-1

Top team goalscorer - Federico Chiesa @ 100/30

The Juventus man is his country's talisman, but faces a constant battle with the treatment table.

Spalletti will be hoping that Chiesa can recapture his Euro 2020 form, given the lack of quality options at the no.9 spot. The 26-year-old netted 10 goals in 37 appearances across all competitions this season for The Old Lady, and ended the campaign in decent form, scoring twice in as many games.

Gianluca Scamacca is another goalscoring option for the Azzurri at 7/2, but he has just one goal in 15 appearances for his country. However, the 25-year-old's 19 goals in all competitions helped Atalanta to a fourth-place finish in Serie A as well as continental triumph in the Europa League, so he'll be eager to impress on the international stage.

Federico Chiesa top scorer at 100-30

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You can read all our latest Euro 2024 Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.

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