Perhaps the most intriguing qualification group for Euro 2024, Group F, returns on Saturday afternoon as Estonia host Sweden in a must-win game for both sides. Below we pick out the betting angles to provide you with some value.

Team news

Janne Andersson has been in charge of Sweden since 2016, but it’s fair to say he hasn’t had a squad quite as talented as this current one. With Manchester United’s Victor Lindelof, Aston Villa’s Robin Olsen and Newcastle United’s Alexander Isak, there’s a Premier League spine to a side that is looking to bounce back having lost their World Cup play-off to Poland last year. 

For Estonia, goalkeeper Karl Jacob Hein and centre-back Maksim Paskotši play their football in England for Arsenal and Spurs respectively. Henri Anier is currently the top scorer in their squad with 21 international goals, but he’s now playing for Lee Man in the Hong Kong Premier League. 

Sweden to win and BTTS No

These two have had poor starts to the qualification campaign, and now the pressure is on Sweden to pull something out of the bag. They’ve been beaten by Austria and Belgium already, but thumped Azerbaijan 5-0. Ultimately, they need a big win here to keep the pressure on the top two, in the hope that one of them will slip up in the run-in.

Estonia actually got the same result against Belgium (3-0 loss) and a better one against Austria (2-1 loss) in comparison to Sweden, but importantly, they failed to beat Azerbaijan. On paper, the Swedes boast a far superior squad and they should be able to win this game fairly comfortably. Even away from home, they have to win this game to have any chance of qualification. 

Sweden to win with -2 handicap 

Without Zlatan Ibrahimovic, new attacking talents have flourished for Sweden and as a result, they could click here. Isak is establishing himself as one of Europe’s top strikers at Newcastle, while Viktor Gyokeres is now flourishing at Sporting CP after his £20m move from Coventry City this summer. 

To compliment them, Dejan Kulusevski has made a bright start to the season under Ange Postecoglou, while Anthony Elanga looks reinvigorated at Nottingham Forest. That’s a dangerous front four no matter how you look at it, while captain Emil  Forsberg will be trusted to create chances for them to stick away. 

Estonia might not be able to cope with all of this attacking talent, and as a result, we could see a big away win. With goal difference likely to play an important factor in this group, don’t expect Sweden to settle for a narrow win.