Estonia vs Azerbaijan Prediction: Another productive trip to Tallinn for Azeris

Estonia and Azerbaijan lost the first two games of their Uefa Nations League campaigns to Sweden and Slovakia last month, so both nations will be hoping to get off the mark in Group C1 when they meet in Tallinn on Friday (17:00).

Read below for my Estonia vs Azerbaijan prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this clash at the A. Le Coq Arena.

Team News

Estonia's head coach Jurgen Henn suffered a big blow to his plans this month following the withdrawal of first-choice striker Rauno Sappinen (Flora) through illness, while midfielder Kevor Palumets (HJK) is suspended following his red card in September's 3-0 defeat to Sweden.

Markus Poom (Shamrock Rovers) could replace the 21-year-old, but Mark Anders Lepik (Flora) misses out with an injury.

Football Odds

Azerbaijan boss Fernando Santos, who masterminded Portugal's success at Euro 2016, must decide whether to start captain Emin Mahmudov (Neftci Baku) on Friday after taking off the 49-cap international in the 3-1 loss to Sweden and keeping him on the substitutes bench in the 2-0 defeat in Slovakia.

Mahmudov is the Azeris' joint-leading active scorer with 10 international goals alongside club teammate Ramil Sheydayev and his inclusion in the starting XI would surely be a big boost to a side that blanked for the first time since November 2023 in Kosice.

Estonia vs Azerbaijan Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Estonia vs Azerbaijan page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

The head-to-head record between these two sides is equally split with a win for each alongside two stalemates. Azerbaijan were victorious in the most recent meeting, however, winning 2-0 in Tallinn last October, and Friday's visitors are 11/8, or a 42.1% chance, to triumph again in the Estonian capital. The Blueshirts, meanwhile are 2/1 (33.3%) to pick up three points, while a draw can be backed at 21/10.

Both teams to score is priced at 1/1 and over 2.5 total goals at 5/4.

Sheydayev (9/4) leads the anytime goalscorer market followed by Ankaragucu striker Renat Dadashov (11/4), while Paide's Robi Saarma (100/30) is shortest priced for the hosts.

To Win to Nil - Azerbaijan @ 13/5

Azerbaijan went unbeaten in their Euro 2024 qualifiers against Estonia last year, drawing 1-1 in Baku and winning the reverse fixture 2-0 in Tallinn. They picked up seven points in Group F, finishing just three points behind Sweden, while Estonia ended bottom on just a solitary point.

It's been a mixed year so far for Azerbaijan, who have won two of their six matches - beating Mongolia 1-0 and Kazakhstan 3-2 in international friendlies - but also lost three times, though all three defeats were against higher-ranked nations, and they weren't disgraced in either Nations League loss to Sweden or Slovakia last month.

Estonia, meanwhile, failed to get on the scoresheet in either of their UNL contests in September, losing narrowly at home to Slovakia (0-1) but seeing two more put past them in Sweden (3-0). They've failed to score in three games this year and their firepower in attack has been reduced by the withdrawal from the squad of Sappinen, who has 12 goals in 55 senior team caps.

I struggle to see where the goals come from without Sappinen, so a goalless draw might be the best they can hope for.

However, Azerbaijan have scored in five of their last six games and struck twice on their last visit to A. Le Coq Arena.

Under the tutelage of the vastly-experienced Santos, I'm backing the visitors to edge to victory on Friday.

Correct Score - Azerbaijan 0-1 @ 11/2

I don't envisage too many goals in Friday's UNL contest, despite three of Azerbaijan's last four games ending with over 3.5 goals.

Estonia were beaten 1-0 in Tallinn by Slovakia last month and have suffered three 2-0 defeats in the past 12 months, two of them against solid international sides in Sweden and Austria, and the other at home to Azerbaijan almost a year to the day.

Azerbaijan have already won 1-0 once in 2024, beating Mongolia by that scoreline in March, and with Santos now at the helm, I can see it being a more regular occurrence.

I've already detailed my reasons behind backing Azerbaijan to win to nil, with Sappinen's absence a big factor in my decision to go against the home side scoring.

Azerbaijan have scored exactly once in a game on three occasions this year, and if they go in front, I wouldn't be surprised to see them bunker down in an attempt to hold onto their lead. 

Offers

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