ES Tunis vs Chelsea Prediction: Costly card for Guenichi at Lincoln Financial Field

A 3-1 defeat to Flamengo in their second Group D game has left Chelsea needing to avoid defeat to Esperance Sportive de Tunis on Wednesday (02:00 BST, Channel 5/DAZN) to secure their spot in the last 16 of the 2025 Fifa Club World Cup. A victory for the Tunisians at Lincoln Financial Field, meanwhile, would send the Blood and Gold through as runners-up behind Flamengo at the expense of their English counterparts.

Below are my ES Tunis vs Chelsea predictions, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this do-or-die clash in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. 

Team News

ES Tunis star Youcef Belaili, who struck the winner in his side's 1-0 win over Los Angeles FC last Friday, is suspended for their final group game after picking up his second yellow card of the tournament against the Americans.

Yan Sasse, who was hooked at half-time in ES Tunis' opening group match, the 2-0 defeat to Flamengo last Tuesday, and came on in the 61st minute against LAFC, could replace Belaili in the starting XI.

Football Odds

Achref Jabri is another option in place of the Algerian forward, but otherwise, head coach Maher Kanzari could name the same starting XI.

Chelsea head coach Enzo Maresca has suggested changes are in the offing for Wednesday's Group D decider.

He said: "We will do some rotation because the ones who played two games are quite tired to play again.

"So we will make rotation, and we will see if there is a chance for those who haven’t played as much."

The Italian's comments could be music to the ears of Benoit Badisashile, Andrey Santos and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, none of whom have featured at all yet this tournament. Meanwhile, Christopher Nkunku and Dario Essugo only enjoyed late cameos in the 2-0 victory over LAFC last Monday.

Nicolas Jackson definitely won't be playing against ES Tunis, however, after the Senegalese striker was sent off four minutes after coming on against Flamengo.

Blues skipper Reece James could also miss out, if his manager's words are anything to go by.

Maresca said: "Reece, the reason why [he didn't train] is because he is ill. Levi Colwill has also been ill in the last two days, but today was better and part of the session."

ES Tunis vs Chelsea Odds

ES Tunis pulled a win out of the bag against LAFC, but the Tunisians are huge underdogs against Chelsea, with odds of 12/1 implying a 7.7% chance of success. The Blues, meanwhile, can be backed at 1/4, or an 80% chance, to collect all three points.

The draw, which would be enough for the Premier League side to finish as runners-up courtesy of a superior goal difference, is priced at 5/1, both teams to score at 5/4, and over 2.5 total goals at 4/6.

Liam Delap, who made his full Chelsea debut against Flamengo, heads the anytime goalscorer market at 21/20, ahead of teammate Cole Palmer (23/20), while Rodrigo Rodrigues (9/2) is first up for ES Tunis.

Player to Have 2 or More Shots - Rodrigo Rodrigues (EST) @ 13/8

With Belaili suspended, more responsibility will fall upon the shoulders of Rodrigo Rodrigues, who has started ES Tunis' first two group games but has been substituted in both without scoring.

The 29-year-old was prolific in the Tunisian Ligue Professionnelle 1 last season, notching 10 times in 16 appearances, and he scored four goals in 11 league outings in an injury-affected 2024/25 campaign.

Today's Football Fixtures

Rodrigo Rodrigues has failed to fire in 15 CAF Champions League games for ES across the last two seasons, but he averaged 1.5 shots per game in 2023/24, and two per game this term.

The Brazilian has tried his luck against Flamengo and LAFC, seeing a long-range effort blocked in the 25th minute by a Flamengo defender before hitting the post with another outside-the-box strike in the 10th minute of his side's victory over LAFC.

Belaili was responsible for four of ES Tunis' six shots against Flamengo and two of their 10 attempts against LAFC, so with the 33-year-old now sidelined, there could be more opportunities for the likes of Rodrigo Rodrigues to increase their shot tally on Wednesday.

Chelsea conceded seven shots to LAFC in their first group game, and 13 to Flamengo in their second, and with ES Tunis needing to win to overtake them in second, we could see the Blues come under pressure in Philadelphia, and I expect Rodrigo Rodrigues to lead the way for the them in terms of attempts.

Player to Receive a Card - Khalil Guenichi (EST) @ 16/5

I unsuccessfully backed ES Tunis midfielder Khalil Guenichi to receive a card against LAFC in my Los Angeles-ES Tunis Bet Builder Tips, but the logic was all there, and I think I can count myself a tad unfortunate that the Tunisian wasn't booked for any of the three fouls he committed, including the penalty he conceded in the seventh minute of second-half stoppage time.

It was the second successive match that the 22-year-old had made three fouls, after he gave away a hat-trick of free-kicks in his side's loss to Flamengo in Philadelphia, where he was booked for his indiscretions.

Guenichi will have a tough job on his hands against Chelsea to contain the talents of midfield counterpart Moises Caicedo, who was fouled five times against Flamengo last Friday. One of those fouls, by the Rubro-Negro's midfield general Erick Pulgar, resulted in a yellow card for the Chilean, and Guenichi could be forced to take similar action on Wednesday to limit the Ecuadorian's effect on the game.

A booking at Lincoln Financial Field would be costly for Guenichi, as it would incur a one-game suspension for an accumulation of yellow cards and see him miss his side's last-16 tie, should they finish second in Group D.

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