England vs Wales Prediction: Russo the provider?

England silenced their doubters with a thumping 4-0 win over the Netherlands in their second group match at Euro 2025, which now means that they should make it to the quarter-finals, providing they can beat neighbours Wales on Sunday in St. Gallen (20:00 BST, ITV1). 

The Lionesses have seen two contrasting performances so far, while Wales are all but out of the tournament, and will need a miracle to make it through at this stage. Below you can find my England vs Wales predictions, featuring team news and more. 

Team News

Sarina Wiegman is surely going to name an unchanged XI for this match, given how good England were against the Dutch. They dominated from start to finish, with Ella Toone likely to retain her place in the number 10 role, with two-goal hero Lauren James on the right and Lauren Hemp on the left behind Alessia Russo. 

It means Beth Mead and Chloe Kelly will have to settle for places on the bench, while Kiera Walsh and Georgia Stanway will continue their partnership in the heart of midfield. At the back, Jess Carter is likely to continue at the centre of defence after her switch with Alex Greenwood - who moved to left-back against the Netherlands. She will partner Leah Williamson, with Lucy Bronze starting at right-back ahead of Hannah Hampton in goal.

Today's Football Fixtures

Gemma Grainger could make major changes to the Welsh team for this game, with their tournament likely to come to an end. Olivia Clark, Hannah Cain and Rhiannon Roberts were all dropped for the defeat to France and could return, while Hayley Ladd will hope to get some minutes having been left on the bench. 

Olivia Clark could play in goal in place of Safia Middleton Patel, while Jess Fishlock became  the oldest goalscorer in Women’s European Championship history against France and would love to get amongst the goals again. 

England vs Wales Odds

England are the heavy favourites to win this game, priced at 1/25 while Wales are 40/1 underdogs to secure an unlikely victory. That gives England an implied win probability of 96% heading into this one, with a draw at 14/1. 

Over 2.5 goals is 1/4, BTTS is 7/4 and Russo is the favourite to score first at 10/3. 

England -3 @ 6/5 

This should be pretty routine for the Lionesses, who looked really good against the Dutch. Wiegman’s side created an xG of 2.90 v 0.22 in their last match, proving their dominance and the moves to put James on the right and switch Greenwood and Carter seemed to elevate their performance level. 

I’d expect that to continue against a far weaker Welsh outfit, that lost 4-1 to France and 3-0 to the Netherlands by comparison. Wales are ranked 30th in the world, while England are fifth, so the gap in quality between the two squads is sizeable. 

Wales have now lost their last four matches, and this is going to be a big ask for them to keep England at bay. Let’s back the -3 handicap, and back the Lionesses to win by four goals or more in this final group game. 

Alessia Russo to assist a goal @ 2/1

I think England will score plenty of goals during this tournament, and an interesting tactical point is the role of number nine Russo. She would have loved to have got amongst the goals against the Netherlands, but instead worked hard up top, providing a remarkable three assists out of the four goals scored. 

After chasing long passes from goalkeeper Hampton, she would then tee up a teammate for an attempt at goal, and I can see this continuing against Wales. She may be the provider rather than the Golden Boot contender for England at this tournament, with a whole load of talent supporting the Arsenal striker. 

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