EFL League 1 Predictions: Luton and Cardiff to bounce straight back up
League 1 returns this weekend as the 2025/26 season gets underway. To help build up the excitement, we have collaborated with football analyst StatmanDave, who has delivered his EFL League 1 Predictions.
Below you will find his 1-24 selections for the upcoming campaign.
League 1 Outright Odds
Here is Statman Dave's 1-24 in full. If you agree/disagree with him then you can find all the League 1 Odds available on Betfred.com and you can also message Dave on X to give him your predictions!
24th - AFC Wimbledon
The team for me finishing bottom of League 1 this season is Wimbledon. They did superbly well gaining promotion via the play-offs and finished the season with the best defensive record in League 2, facing the second-fewest shots (425) and conceding the fewest goals in the competition (35). Usually, this style translates well to promoted sides but The Dons lost both of their starting wing backs: James Tilley and Josh Neufville on free transfers who will be massive losses.
The pair ranked first and third respectively for Tackles Won last season for Wimbledon and only top scorer Mathew Stevens (21) was directly involved in more goals than the duo (Tilley 11, Neufville 9).
23rd - Peterborough United
In 23rd place I’ve got Peterborough United. Peterborough’s model of sign, develop, sell has generally kept The Posh in and around the League 1 play-offs but last season they came unstuck and I can only see it getting worse. They leaked goals last season - conceding the second-most in League 1 (81) and whilst goals kept them up, Peterborough have lost all three of their top scorers from last season - with two leaving for free! (Poku to QPR £0, Mothersille to Stockport £1m, Jade-Jones to St Pauli £0).
Without transfer fees to seriously reinvest, Peterborough’s model breaks down. They also had a terrible end to the season, picking up just three points from their final seven games. Often, form does carry from the end of one season to the start of another and if The Posh can’t stop the rot, I can see them in trouble.
22nd - Exeter City
Joining them in League 2 is going to be Exeter City. Exeter need investment but as a fan owned club they’re not going to get it. They’ve struggled to kick on after gaining promotion from League 2 in 2022 and we’ve seen some very strong newly promoted sides come into League 1 - notably Stockport & Wrexham last season.
In goal, Joe Whitworth is a talent - especially at this level. Starting last season as a 20-year-old, the on-loan Crystal Palace keeper made the second most saves in League 1 but Exeter don’t have enough players of his quality. Gary Caldwell’s hard working style of play is effective, but that can only take a club so far.
They’ve moved a lot of players on and whilst Jayden Wareham and Luca Woodhouse could be solid free transfers, the Grecians need goals and Wareham has never been prolific - even at Youth Level for Chelsea. Yes, they scored the second-most goals from set pieces last season (25) but that was more than they’ve managed in the previous two seasons combined, so that might not be a long term solution for goals (12+10).
And it’s not like they’re rock solid defensively. Only six teams had a worse goal difference in League 1 last term than Exeter (-16) and I think this will be the year they return to the fourth tier.
21st - Northampton Town
Rounding out the relegated sides is going to be Northampton Town. Kevin Nolan did well to keep The Cobblers up after joining in December but Northampton still only managed a 19th-place finish.
As you might expect from a side coached by Big Kevin Nolan, Northampton were great from set pieces last season - with only eight sides scoring more than The Cobblers in League 1 (18) but they seriously need work from open play - with just 19 goals, the fewest in the league, coming when the ball is live.
Add to their lack of goals with an error prone goalkeeper and I think Northampton are in trouble. Goalkeeper Lee Burge actually had the third-worst goals prevented stat in the third tier last season - letting in an extra seven goals according to data from The Opta Analyst.
Whilst they’ve been busy in the transfer market I don’t think it will be enough and Northampton will go down.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
20th - Stevenage
I worry for Alex Revell’s team. They won just four of their last 19 games of their last season, with all of those wins coming against sides who were subsequently relegated.
19th - Port Vale
Port Vale were impressive last season but their underlying numbers aren’t overly promising. They’ll struggle against tougher opposition and may go on some long stretches of poor
18th - Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town didn’t get the rub of the green last time out, they underperformed their xG both for and against and would’ve finished higher if luck had been on their side. Nigel Clough is a good, experienced manager who should steer them clear of relegation.
17th - Rotherham United
Rotherham are a club that will definitely be in and around this relegation scrap but keeping hold of top scorer Sam Nombe (14 goals) will keep them in the division.
16th - Burton Albion
Burton Albion should be safe thanks to the experienced management of Gary Bowyer. Mark Robinson attempted to implement a possession-based approach but was sacked in October with Burton at the foot of the table but under Bowyer (17th December 2024), The Brewers have been the 14th best team in the division.
15th - Bradford City
Graham Alexander is a very experienced EFL manager and should have no issues keeping his Bradford side in the division comfortably. They were great on the break last year, scoring the third-most goals from counter attacks of any side in the league and had the second best defensive record of all sides too.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
14th - Doncaster Rovers
Newly-promoted Doncaster Rovers should be safe given they’ve kept hold of in form forward Luke Molyneux. The only player to register double digits for both goals and assists in League 2 last year, Molyneux was central to Doncaster’s title win. (16G+13A)
13th - Wigan Athletic
Wigan appointed Ryan Lowe as manager on 14th March. The Tics finished the season in mid-table form drawing more games (seven) than any other team in the league in that period. If Lowe wants to have more promotion success as a manager, adding to his two promotions out of League 2.
He will have to find a way to turn draws into wins. New signing Dara Costelloe could be the game-changer. He spent last season on loan at Accrington Stanley in League 2 and then Northampton in League 1scoring 11 league goals in 32 games.
12th - Lincoln City
Lincoln City have finished 11th, 7th and 11th in their last three seasons and I’m expecting them to fall just narrowly outside of that range in 25/26. Their set pieces were excellent last year with a league-high 30 goals from those scenarios, but they only scored 22 in the two seasons prior combined - I’m not convinced that level is sustainable.
11th - Barnsley
Maybe one of the most exciting teams to watch in terms of goals this season, Barnsley have added EFL stalwart David McGoldrick to their ranks to partner Davis Keillor-Dunn - who finished the season in fine form - with nine goal involvements in his final 10 matches.
However goals against are a concern as The Tykes conceded the fifth-most goals last season and are yet to upgrade their defence.
Another mid table season seems the most likely outcome here, although there’s room for variance either way with young manager Conor Hourihane being a massive unknown quantity in many ways.
10th - Blackpool
Steve Bruce will have his work cut out improving on last season’s ninth-place finish with the loss of Sonny Carey and Rob Apter. Even though Bruce has proven himself to be capable at this level I think Blackpool lack the quality to finish higher.
9th - Bolton
Bolton couldn’t quite get over the line and into the play-off places last season and only won seven of their 19 games under Steven Schumacher last season. They’ve also lost their starting central midfielder George Thomason to Wrexham.
Ethan Erhahon, Thierry Gale & Xavier Simons are big transfers and even though Schumacher guided Plymouth Argyle to a 101-point title-winning season the last time he was in League 1, I don’t think Bolton have enough to break into the top places.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
8th - Plymouth Argyle
Tom Cleveley had a positive first season in management last year, in the Championship with Watford, demonstrating the ability to maximise the strengths of his squad, namely ball-carrying, rather than confine them within an overly-regimented system that may have limited individual expression.
If the former Manchester United midfielder can channel those qualities at Home Park, the Devonians should see the best of wing-backs Bali Mumba and Matthew Sorinola, who have both been top-end performers at this level before, most notably in 2021-22 with Argyle and MK Dons respectively.
7th - Reading
I fully expect Reading, now that there’s a level of stability at the football club, to be knocking on the door of the play-offs. Joel Pereira has been tied down and he is one of the very best shot-stoppers in the league - making a staggering 138 saves last term.
Another Man Utd academy product, Charlie Savage, is stepping up his game and registered an impressive 9 assists last time out; the second most in the division. They have a really solid young squad who I expect to continue to grow under Noel Hunt.
6th - Huddersfield Town
Lee Grant is unproven as a number one, but he was entrusted with being an in-possession coach at Ipswich Town, during their back-to-back promotions to, and in, the Premier League. It’s worth noticing that the Tractor Boys played some of the best football in the country during this spell too.
Ryan Ledson, Marcus Harness and Alfie May are superb signings at this level May in particular scored 16 goals and registered eight assists in League 1 en route to the third-tier title last season with record-breaking Birmingham City and has a solid record in League 1 throughout his career.
Grant will have to turn around some very poor form, however. In 2025, Huddersfield were 22nd in the form table, a far cry from their blistering hot start that saw them in fourth place on New Year's Day.
They’re obviously an unknown quantity but I’ve seen enough from Lee Grant’s work at Ipswich and they’ve got enough quality in the forward areas for the promotion spots to be a fair target.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
5th - Wycombe Wanderers
Under current Luton head coach Matt Bloomfield, Wycombe were competing for the title but the mid-season change derailed their promotion push. New manager Mike Dodds picked up just 27 points from 20 games and will need to turn things around sharply if he’s to keep his job. Richard Kone is excellent at generating opportunities for himself and isn’t half bad at taking them either, bagging 18 last term. That’ll keep them in play-off contention.
4th - Leyton Orient
Having lost three of their top five goalscorers in the wake of their play-off defeat, this was always going to be a tough summer for Richie Wellens’ team. I actually think they’ve done very well in the market.
Aaron Connolly has never had a chance as a true starting striker but has quality in abundance and could thrive in this league. Meanwhile, Josh Koroma scored double-figures for Huddersfield last season and ended the season with four in as many games.
The loss of Josh Keeley, who prevented more goals than any other goalkeeper in League 1 last season, is a significant hit but loan recruit Tommy Simkim is highly-rated in the England youth ranks and could be a shrewd replacement. Brighton & Hove Albion loanee Killian Cahill is also one to watch.
There’s plenty of quality here, actually, and I don’t think the rebuild after last season is going to be as drawn out as many have suggested.
3rd - Stockport County
Club-record signing Malik Mothersille was directly involved in 21 goals in League 1 last season for Peterborough and could be a very handy replacement for Louie Barry.
With the experience they gained last season under their collective belt, I don’t expect to see Stockport County regress this year. They finished third last time out and will have learned plenty of lessons from that. Is it enough to kick off into automatic contention? Probably not. There are two huge football clubs dropping into the league who I think will be a cut above in all honesty, but Stockport are the best of the rest. Don’t be surprised to see them promoted via the play-offs.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
2nd - Cardiff City
The thing that impresses me the most about the Bluebirds is the appointment of Brian Barry-Murphy. The Irishman enjoyed a three-year spell as manager of Manchester City’s Elite Development Squad - guiding them to two Premier League 2 titles.
Some of the brightest young coaches have come from Man City and Pep Guardiola. Mikel Arteta is managing at the highest level but we’ve seen Vincent Kompany and Enzo Maresca win league titles with relegated clubs (Burnley & Leicester). Barry-Murphy has the coaching ability and the talent in the Cardiff squad to do something similar.
As mentioned, Salech will provide the goals but Callum Robinson is a great technician for the level of League 1 who can play all across the line. There’s also seasoned pros like Perry Ng and Callum Chambers who should thrive at this lower level.
What’s more is the Bluebirds also have talented youngsters like Rubin Colwill, Ronan Kpakio, Cian Ashford and Dylan Lawlor who should see their development hit new heights working under Brian-Murphy.
1st - Luton Town
Bloomfield is a coach who has a track record at this level. Prior to leaving for Luton, Bloomfield left Wycombe Wanderers second in League 1 as well as the top scorers in the division (50). (14th Jan 2025)
Luton have recruited well - signing experienced players from the Championship on free transfers whilst replacing error prone Tomas Kaminski between the sticks with 22-year-old Josh Keeley. Whereas Kaminski performed the worst in the Championship in terms of goals prevented (-4.1), Keeley prevented more than 14 goals in League 1 for Leyton Orient last season! (14.4).
With a smart managerial appointment and much needed changes in the squad, I think Luton will be the team to beat this year.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.
Share Article
New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.
Most Popular
Denmark vs DR Congo Prediction: Osula could be set for a memorable debut 3rd June 
Poland vs Nigeria Prediction: Super Eagles can find success in friendly 3rd June 
South Korea vs El Salvador Prediction: Son to shine in Sandy as… 3rd June 
Netherlands vs Algeria Prediction: Magic Malen can continue his… 3rd June 
Luxembourg vs Italy Prediction: The kids are alright as Bandini… 3rd June
