Dunkerque vs PSG Prediction: Can underdogs find the net?

The Coupe de France has a beautiful way of throwing up shocks. This Tuesday night, at Lille’s Stade Pierre-Mauroy, second-tier outfit Dunkerque will face PSG (20:10) in a classic cup tie. 

PSG are on fire and could still win the quadruple, as they are unbeaten in the league and can win it next time out, while they face Aston Villa in the Champions League semi-final and have already won the Trophees Des Champions. So can they do it? Below you can find my Dunkerque vs PSG predictions.

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Ewen Jaouen has played the last five games in this competition and is expected to start here as Dunkerque’s cup keeper. Opa Sangante scored two late goals against Brest in the last round of this competition from the bench, but he is not guaranteed a start despite that astonishing display. 

Instead, Nattan Skytta, Yacine Bammou, Gaetan Courtet and Enzo Bardeli will be trusted to try and do the impossible, and break down this PSG outfit. They’ve scored 26 goals in total this term and will need to produce something if the second-tier outfit are to claim another scalp. 

Luis Enrique is expected to rotate again ahead of this one, although with the league title all but wrapped up, that does allow him some flexibility in the league. Matvey Safonov could start in goal having played in the last three cup matches, while Presnel Kimpembe could also be handed a start after he made his first Ligue 1 appearance in over two years at the weekend. 

Ibrahim Mbaye, Nuno Mendes, Vitinha, and Desire Doue may all be given starts, while Ousmane Dembele and Bradley Barcola could come into the XI. PSG have this semi-final, then a league game at the weekend, before they face Aston Villa in the UCL, so it is a case of making sure their star names are sharp, without risking injury. It may prove to be a tough balancing act for their Spanish manager, but I feel he will get stronger here, and rest players at the weekend, as he hinted in his pre-match press conference. 

"I'm going to approach it as usual," Enrique told reporters. "Since last season, we've been thinking in general terms and not about a single match.

"We love being in a busy schedule because it means we're involved in all the competitions."

Dunkerque vs PSG Odds

These two have never met before but Dunkerque are 16/1 to win this game, with PSG the hot favourites at 1/12. That gives the French champions an implied win probability of 92%, while a draw after 90 minutes can be backed at 7/1. 

Over 2.5 goals is 1/3, BTTS is 6/5 and PSG are priced at 11/2 to win 2-0 in this semi-final. 

PSG to win and BTTS @ 13/8

PSG are on track to win their fourth consecutive Coupe de France and they are massive favourites for this clash. I can’t see anything other than a PSG win given they are unbeaten in the league and could go all the way in the Champions League as well, but I think we can find some value by also backing BTTS. 

Dunkerque have seen BTTS come in during three of their last four matches, while they beat Ligue 1 side Brest 3-2 away from home in the last round of this competition. They also drew 1-1 with Lille before beating them on penalties, so they can score goals and have proved that against elite French sides already. PSG are obviously a step up, and I’m expecting a big defeat, but I also think they can find the net against a side that could make changes. 

Over 3.5 goals @ 8/11

This one should feature plenty of goals, especially given the disparity in quality between the two teams. PSG are phenomenal in front of goal, and have scored 119 in 44 matches in all competitions this season. 

Dembele has 30 in 38 games, with Bradley Barcola also enjoying a breakout year with 18 to his name. But despite those two bagging goals for fun, Enrique’s men have had 18 different goalscorers this term, so they have plenty of threats for Dunkerque to deal with. 

I think we should see loads of goals in this one, so am happy to choose over 3.5 goals as my second selection. 

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