Derby vs Stoke Prediction: Rams to get the win they need

The final day of the Championship season delivers a clash in which the two teams facing off are at risk of getting relegated. Derby County welcome Stoke City to Pride Park on Saturday (12:30, Sky Sports+). The hosts secured a huge three points at fellow strugglers Hull City last weekend to put them in a strong position on home soil.

Stoke have suffered back-to-back defeats at the hands of league leaders Leeds United and Sheffield United. They are a point and one place above Derby but there are just two points separating the Potters in 18th and Hull in 22nd. Read on for my Derby vs Stoke predictions, aided by the latest team news and match odds. 

Football Odds

Team News

Derby are missing Curtis Nelson (ACL), David Ozoh (thigh), Lars-Jorgen Salvesen (knee), Dajaune Brown, Ryan Nyambe (both hamstring) and Jacob Widell Zetterstrom (cheekbone) due to injury.

Callum Elder is a doubt to feature having missed the last six matches with an issue of his own. Jeff Hendrick will need to be monitored ahead of the weekend after missing the trip to Hull because of a calf problem.

Rams boss John Eustace is likely to stick with the same XI that has triumphed in their previous two fixtures against the Tigers and West Bromwich Albion. This will see Marcus Harness and Jerry Yates continue up front.

Stoke are still light in defensive areas with Josh Wilson-Esbrand, Eric Bocat (both calf), Michael Rose and Enda Stevens (both unspecified) unavailable due to injury. Midfielders Sol Sidibe (back) and Jordan Thompson (ankle) are also confined to the treatment room for the visitors.

Boss Mark Robins is likely to persist with Sam Gallagher up front, while the supporting attacking positions are should be maintained by Lewis Baker, Bae Jun-ho and Million Manhoef.

Ben Pearson and Wouter Burger have been partnered regularly in the engine room, and this is expected to continue in the East Midlands.

Derby vs Stoke Odds

Derby have won three of their last five home games in the league, and have posted back-to-back victories away coming into this clash. They are 21/20 (which has an implied probability of 48.8%) to come out on top on Saturday.

The Rams have drawn two of their past five fixtures in the second tier, and the stalemate is marketed at 2/1.

Stoke are 16/5 to come away with the three points, which they have managed in two of their previous four outings in the league.

At least one team has failed to scored in each of the Potters' last four games in the Championship and BTTS - No is on offer at 8/11.

Derby to win @ 21/20

What a job John Eustace has done at Derby. Despite losing his first three games, he has guided the Rams to 20 points and they are in an excellent position to maintain their Championship status on the final day.

This is a massive game for both clubs because they are both at risk of relegation. Derby have the momentum of two away victories coming into this and they arguably have the best manager in the division in charge of them, so I think they will get the job done on home turf.

Stoke have had their confidence shattered by a heavy defeat (6-0) to Leeds and a 2-0 defeat at home to Sheffield United. This is a game in which they could be more competitive in, but I think they have a tough task ahead of them at a packed-out Pride Park against a team who are excelling under their new head coach.

The Rams are tough to break down and are very strong on the counter-attack, while last week's winner at Hull showed their threat from set-pieces. I'm confident they will secure the victory they require on Saturday.

Under 2.5 goals @ 8/15

I do think this could be a tight affair in DE24, though, given what is at stake for both of these clubs. I think under 2.5 goals may be a smart selection for this fixture as a result.

This has been a winning selection in five of Stoke's past six matches in the Championship, two of which have come on their travels.

Under 2.5 goals has been a successful bet in five of Derby's previous seven outings in the second tier, while there have been fewer than three goals scored in each of the Rams' last four matches at Pride Park.

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