Derby vs Luton Prediction: Rams can edge relegation six-pointer

Crikey, this feels rather important doesn’t it. Easter weekend tends to deliver the goods and this Good Friday in the Championship we should finally learn more about how this crazy season could finish. The relegation battle this season is simply spectacular and two of the teams involved meet in the early kick-off on Friday. 

Derby County host Luton Town at Pride Park (12:30, Sky Sports Main Event), hoping to keep their heads above water by the end of the season. They’ve done brilliantly well to climb out of the bottom three, but this game is crucial, as they sit three points above Luton ahead of their meeting. Below you can find my Derby vs Luton predictions for this gargantuan clash. 

Football Odds

Team News

John Eustace made an interesting change for the trip to Portsmouth at the weekend as Nathaniel Mendez-Laing came in for his first start since Valentine’s Day. He joined Marcuss Harness and Jerry Yates in the front three but was taken off after an hour so either Liam Thompson or Kenzo Goudmijn could come into the midfield if Eustace switches back to the 3-5-2 for this crunch match. 

Harness and Yates have been a cracking duo of late, with the latter finding the net at Fratton Park on Saturday. Kemar Roofe, Dejaune Brown, David Ozoh and Ben Osborn are part of a pretty lengthy injury list but Callum Elder could return to the matchday squad after his knock. Sondre Langas, Nat Phillips and Matthew Clarke will start as the back three in front of goalkeeper Jacob Widell Zetterstrom.

For Luton manager Matt Bloomfied, a disappointing 1-0 defeat against 10-man Blackburn means that changes could be made for this one. Unfortunately, their options in attack are limited with both Jacob Brown and Elijah Adebayo ruled out for the season, meaning that Tahith Chong started in an advanced role alongside Carlton Morris. 

Lasse Nordas or Josh Bowler could provide alternative options in the final third, but Jordan Clark and Thelo Aasgaard are expected to keep their places in midfield. Teden Mengi could be brought into the back three, as both sides strive for all three points. 

Derby vs Luton Odds

Derby are priced at 7/5 to win this game giving them an implied win percentage of 42%. Meanwhile Luton can be backed at 11/5 to steal their fourth away win of the campaign, and a draw is available at 15/8. Over 2.5 goals has only come in during 39% of Derby’s matches and is therefore 13/8, while BTTS is 11/10. 

In terms of goals, they may be hard to come by, but Yates is the favourite to strike first at 13/2. If you fancy this to be a tight affair, the 0-0 may be worth considering at 11/2. 

Derby to win @ 7/5

I have to side with the home team heading into this massive six-pointer. Their recent form has given them a shot at staying up as they have now lost just once in their seven outings. Their home form has also been exemplary as they have picked up 10 points from their last four at Pride Park. 

Meanwhile, Luton were unbeaten in five and still have a shot at survival, but they were handed a hammer-blow when they lost at home to Blackburn on Saturday. I think their major injuries have massively thrown them off course as they had previously looked to have found a successful formula with Adebayo and Morris up top. 

Now that duo has been split up and Brown is also out, they are struggling to find solutions, and I think Derby will be able to edge this one. Both teams are likely to play a three at the back, and this is not going to be a pretty game - while it also feels like a defeat could be terminal for the Hatters’ survival hopes. I’ll side with Eustace and the Rams. 

Correct score: Derby 1-0 Luton @ 5/1

Derby haven’t conceded in their last three home games and Luton have only managed three goals in their last five outings. Without a key striker in Adebayo I think they’ve been blunted, but I do also believe these two systems will cancel each other out. This is going to be scrappy and low-scoring. 

Only 39 per cent of Derby’s matches have ended in over 2.5 goals, which is well below the league average. Meanwhile, BTTS has come in during 50 per cent of Luton’s games, so I think it’s likely this will be a narrow win for the home side. I can’t see Luton scoring, and the value lies in the 1-0 scoreline in my eyes. 

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