Cyprus vs Lithuania Prediction: Hosts to edge this crucial clash

There is a crunch relegation clash in the Uefa Nations League on Friday (17:00, YouTube) as Cyprus host Lithuania in League C Group 2. The hosts have won just one match so far, which came in the reverse fixture against the visitors two months ago. They need just a point here to ensure their safety

Lithuania have lost all their fixtures to date and they simply have to win here for their fight to continue on the final day against Kosovo on Monday. Read on for my Cyprus vs Lithuania prediction, accompanied by the latest match odds and team news.

Cyprus vs Lithuania Odds

Cyprus are 13/10 to win this crucial fixture, which gives them a theoretical chance of 43.5%. Lithuania are valued at 21/10 to take the three points, giving them an implied probability of 32.3%. This is also the same price for a draw.

Both teams to score is on offer at 11/10 and over 2.5 goals can be backed at 6/4.

Cyprus striker Ioannis Pittas was the difference-maker when these sides met back in September, and he is 6/1 to open the scoring on Friday, or 5/2 to score anytime.

Football Odds

Team News

Cyprus boss Sofronis Avgousti has been tinkering with his shape throughout this Nations League campaign. His side started out with a back three, before opting for a 4-2-3-1 formation, which is likely to have impacted their chances of improving results.

He will be forced into one change for this clash as St Mirren midfielder Alex Gogic has been ruled out because of an injury. Anorthosis Famagusta midfielder Andreas Chrysostomou is also not available for selection, but Anderson Correia has been recalled to the set up and he will provide cover on the hosts' left flank.

The hero in the reverse fixture, AIK's Pittas, is set to lead the line once again. The striker has averaged just under a goal every other game in the Allsvenskan this season, but he has found it difficult to replicate that form on the Nations League stage.

He is set to link up with Hellas Verona forward Grigoris Kastanos, who has one goal in 10 appearances in Serie A this season.

Lithuania may be winless in this campaign, but they do currently boast a more prolific attacker on this stage. Armandas Kucys has netted two of his side's three goals in the Nations League so far, with both coming against group leaders Romania - one at home and one away. He will lead the line for his side again in what is their biggest game to date.

Their vastly experienced Fedor Cernych, who is six caps away from a century, had to suffer for a lot of substitute appearances recently, and it looks like that trend will continue on Friday. This means that Paulius Golubickas, who was on the scoresheeet against Kosovo, is likely to operate behind Kucys at AEK Arena.

Cyprus to win 1-0 @ 5/1

The stakes have been raised for this match with the relegation jeopardy and as I mentioned above, each team knows exactly what they need from this match. The onus will be on Lithuania because they need the win more than their hosts, but Cyprus know that their goal difference is much worse, so they cannot really afford to lose this encounter.

Avgousti and his players will be fired up for this match because they know they can maintain their League C status with a point, but I think they could collect an extra two points to get the job done in style.

I'm of the opinion that we could see history repeat itself, so I'm going for them to beat Lithuania 1-0 again. I favour this to happen because they are the home side on this occasion, and they will be roared on by their supporters.

If you're feeling really brave the scorecast for 1-0 and Pittas to score first is priced at a whopping 28/1. I'm not confident in backing or tipping this selection, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it land for the second time in this Nations League campaign.

Both these sides have shown that they are quite a few levels below Romania and Kosovo, who themselves are levels below the elite of the European nations. So with the greatest respect, I don't think there will be much entertainment on offer, even with the high stakes, so I think a narrow victory for Cyprus is worth backing.

Under 1.5 goals @ 6/4

I think you could see where I was going with this in the previous selection, but I think this is another market that offers good value. As I think we could see another 1-0 win for Cyprus, I believe under 1.5 goals worth backing.

On top of this landing in the reverse fixture back in September, neither of these sides have managed to score more than one goal in any of their fixtures in the Nations League this season.

They are two teams that are both limited by quality and I think we will see this when they take to the field on Friday. If you're expecting goals from this one just because of what's on the line, I'd advise picking another game for the entertainment you seek.

Offers

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