Crystal Palace vs Brighton Prediction: Hughes back with a bang in M23 derby

Crystal Palace and Brighton & Hove Albion both suffered disappointing results in midweek, the former drawing 1-1 at Premier League stragglers Southampton and the latter losing 3-0 at home to Aston Villa.

The two rivals will be looking to right the wrongs of Wednesday when they face off at Selhurst Park on Saturday afternoon (15:00). Ahead of kick-off, check out my Crystal Palace vs Brighton prediction below, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Cheick Doucoure and Chadi Riad (both knee) remain in the Palace treatment room, while Chris Richards, who missed Wednesday's stalemate on the South Coast, is doubtful with a calf injury.

Matheus Franca scored his first Palace goal in midweek but is likely to have to impress off the bench again this weekend.

Football Odds

Daicha Kamada, Ben Chilwell and Eddie Nketiah are all pushing for starts, while Will Hughes, who missed last Saturday's FA Cup quarter-final win at Fulham due to illness, could return to Oliver Glasner's first XI after completing a two-match Premier League suspension for accumulating 10 yellow cards in the competition.

Brighton remain without long-term absentees Georginio Rutter (ankle), Joel Veltman (foot), Tariq Lamptey (shoulder), Ferdi Kadioglu (toe), Jason Steele (shoulder), Adam Webster, James Milner and Igo Julio (all hamstring) due to injury.

Changes could be made to the starting XI that suffered in midweek, with Carlos Baleba, Matt O'Riley, Mats Wieffer and Danny Welbeck all pushing for starts after coming off the bench against Villa.

Crystal Palace vs Brighton Odds

Palace have won six of their last nine Premier League games and will move to within four points of Brighton - with a game in hand - if they triumph this weekend. The Eagles are 6/4 to do the double over their rivals after emerging victorious at the Amex Stadium in December, implying a probability of 40%, while the Seagulls are 15/8, or a 34.8% chance, to exact revenge on Saturday.

The draw, which has been a winning selection in four of the last seven head-to-heads, is priced at 5/2, both teams to score at 8/13, and over 2.5 total goals at 4/5.

Jean-Philippe Mateta is 11/8 favourite in the anytime goalscorer market, with Ismail Sarr, who bagged a brace in the reverse fixture, offered at 23/10.

Joao Pedro (21/10) is considered most likely to net anytime for the visitors.

Price Boosts - Both Teams to Score, Both Teams 3+ Corners & Both Teams 20+ Booking Points @ 100/30 4/1

Two of these selections landed in December's reverse fixture, with both teams scoring and winning at least three corners (Brighton took eight of the 13). The third selection, for both teams to receive at least 20 booking points, came close as Palace were shown four yellows (40 booking points) and Brighton one (10).

It was also nearly a winning bet in their final meeting last season, with a Brighton card and a Palace corner all that was missing.

Palace are only joint-13th in the Premier League BTTS table, with 55% (16) of their games seeing at least one goal on either side, but BTTS - Yes has landed in eight of their last nine league games at Selhurst, while eight of Brighton's last 11 away from the Amex have ended with both teams finding the net.

Both teams have scored in 12 of the last 14 meetings between Palace and Brighton, so the first of three selections in this price boost looks good.

Meanwhile, Brighton have taken 147 corners in the Premier League this season, averaging 4.9 per game, and Palace's total of 135 averages out at 4.7 per game, so at least three corners for both sides looks achievable on Saturday. It's been a winner in Palace's last two league games at home and Brighton's previous three travel matches in the top tier of English football.

Brighton have received 63 yellows in the Premier League this term, averaging 2.1 per game (21 booking points p/g), while they've also received one red. Palace have been shown 59 yellows, averaging two per game (20 booking points p/g), and have also been given one red, so 20+ booking points is another easy thing to get behind in this 'derby'.

Player to Receive a Card - Will Hughes (CRY) @ 11/4

Despite only Fulham's Sasa Lukic (11) having been shown more Premier League yellows than Hughes (10) this season, there are seven players shorter priced in the 'to receive a card' market for Saturday's game between Palace and Brighton.

Hughes also averages more fouls per 90 (2.8) than any Palace or Brighton player (min. 900 minutes), and in December's win at the Amex, he gave away three free-kicks, although he managed to evade a caution.

The 29-year-old has committed at least two fouls in his last three appearances against the Seagulls and has been booked four times in 18 career matches v Brighton, including twice in his last five.

I'm expecting Hughes to be thrown straight back into Palace's starting XI on Saturday and that marks him out as a prime candidate to go into the book in this M23 derby.

He could be in close contact with the likes of Joao Pedro and Baleba, who are fouled 2.1 and 1.7 times per 90 in the Premier League this season.

Offers

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