Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa Prediction: From hero to villain for Villa new boy

Crystal Palace and Aston Villa both enjoyed impressive wins on the weekend. The Eagles overcame Fulham 2-0 at Craven Cottage on Saturday afternoon, and in the evening, the Villans came from behind to beat Chelsea 2-1 on home soil.

The two sides have already met twice this season; Palace won 2-1 at Villa Park in the fourth round of the Carabao Cup on October 30, and 24 days later, Oliver Glasner's team went to the same ground in the Premier League and claimed a point in a 2-2 draw. The return fixture takes place on Tuesday (19:30, TNT Sports 2) at Selhurst Park, and ahead of the midweek meeting, you can check out my Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa prediction below, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Palace's win against the Cottagers on Saturday was achieved without Chadi Riad, Cheick Doucoure (both knee) and Joel Ward (calf), none of whom are fit to return to action for the visit of Villa.

Glasner's starting XI looks pretty set with goalkeeper Dean Henderson protected by a three-man defence of Marc Guehi, Maxence Lacroix and Chris Richards, who have Tyrick Mitchell and Daniel Munoz to the side of them as wing-backs.

Will Hughes and Jefferson Lerma provide the protection in the middle of midfield to allow the attacking trio of Eberechi Eze, Ismaila Sarr and Jean-Philippe Mateta to weave their magic further upfield.

The Eagles are likely to wait until their FA Cup fifth-round tie with Millwall on Saturday lunchtime to make a few changes to the line-up, but should Glasner decide to freshen things up on Tuesday, Adam Wharton and Daichi Kamada are likely to be at the forefront of his thinking, with Ben Chilwell, Justin Devenny and Eddie Nketiah more likely to be deployed as second-half substitutes.

Football Odds

Ezri Konsa was one of four changes to Aston Villa's starting XI for their weekend win over Chelsea. The 27-year-old centre-back had missed his side's last two matches, a 1-1 stalemate with Ipswich Town and a 2-2 draw with Liverpool, but he was fit enough on Saturday to replace the ineligible Axel Disasi, who was unable to face his parent club.

Konsa's central defensive partner against the Blues, Tyrone Mings, was withdrawn just before the hour mark and he could drop out on Tuesday for Disasi to reclaim his starting spot with Pau Torres (broken metatarsal) still out injured.

Matty Cash, Ian Maatsen and Jacob Ramsey were the three other additions to Unai Emery's line-up on Saturday; left-back Maatsen will likely make way in midweek for Lucas Digne while fellow full-back Cash could come out of the starting XI for Andres Garcia. Ramsey may also drop back down to the bench following Marcus Rashford's impressive second-half performance at Villa Park, where he was the provider for both of Marco Asensio's goals.

Leon Bailey and Donyell Malen will be sniffing around for starts, too, having both only been thrown on in the 78th minute against Enzo Maresca's men.

However, unless Saturday's match-winner Asensio, or the club's only recognised centre-forward, Ollie Watkins, are rested, Bailey and Malen will have to settle for the bench again.

Boubacar Kamara and Amadou Onana (both hamstring) remain sidelined for the visitors.

Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa Odds

Palace are yet to win a Premier League at Selhurst Park this calendar year and have taken maximum points just twice there all season; however, the Eagles are made slight favourites for the victory on Tuesday at 6/4, implying a 40% win probability, while Villa are 13/8, or a 38.1% chance, to win away for just the second time since the start of November.

The draw is priced at 12/5, both teams to score at 4/6, and over 2.5 total goals at 5/6.

Mateta scored in back-to-back games against Manchester United and Everton before the VAR disallowed a second-half strike on Saturday; the Frenchman is 6/4 to get back in the goalscoring groove against Villa, making him favourite in the anytime market with Watkins (9/5) just behind him.

Player to Receive a Card - Marco Asensio (AVL) @ 11/2

Since receiving six yellow cards and one red in 36 La Liga appearances for Real Mallorca in 2014/15, Asensio's disciplinary record in league campaigns has been pretty faultless. The Spaniard has only been cautioned 12 times in the last 10-and-a-half seasons and his most recent league booking came in 2022/23 for Real Madrid.

It's, therefore, no surprise to see Asensio listed so lowly in the player card markets for Crystal Palace v Aston Villa on Tuesday with only Palace trio Eze, Henderson and Kamada (all 6/1) handed a higher price than the three-time Uefa Champions League winner.

However, I believe there's value to be had here based on the 29-year-old's start to life in the Premier League.

It's a small sample size but Asensio is averaging 1.7 fouls per game in the competition, making two in his first start against Liverpool (2-2) last Wednesday and committing three against Chelsea on Saturday.

Perhaps those concessions of free-kicks can be attributed to the adrenaline of moving mid-season to a new league in a new country and a regression to his 0.08 fouls per game in Ligue 1 during the first half of the campaign might be expected.

However, I'm looking to cash in while I can, and I believe it may be worth a punt on an Asensio booking in a tough away trip for Villa.

Villa had two players booked in their cup tie with Palace at Villa Park in October and three cautioned in the league the following month with attacking midfielder Emiliano Buendia (now on loan at Bayer Leverkusen) one of those scribbled into the referee's notebook.

Palace have their fair share of tricky players with Eze arguably the most difficult of all to deal with. The England international has been fouled, on average, 1.6 times per game this season and was upended twice at Craven Cottage on the weekend.

Asensio could well come into contact with Eze and others like Sarr (1.5 p/g) and Lerma (1.3 p/g) who are also proficient at drawing fouls.

Player Shots on Target - Daniel Munoz (CRY) 1+ Shots on Target @ 15/8

Munoz joined Palace from Belgian side Genk in the 2024 January transfer window and made an instant impression with his energy up and down the right-hand side, registering four assists in 16 Premier League appearances, although he failed to grab a first goal in red and blue, averaging 0.5 shots per game in the competition.

The Colombia international has doubled that average this term, though, managing to direct half of his efforts on target, scoring three goals in his first 25 league appearances.

His latest arrived on Saturday at Craven Cottage, where he displayed terrific footwork to beat Fulham's Calvin Bassey and create some space for himself before lashing past Bernd Leno in net.

Munoz also scored in a 2-0 win over Doncaster Rovers in the FA Cup fourth round on February 10 meaning he has scored in two of his last three appearances. Between goals against the League 2 side and Fulham, the 29-year-old forced a save from Everton shot-stopper Jordan Pickford at Selhurst Park, so he has now recorded a shot on target in each of his last three matches.

Interestingly, Villa have conceded a shot on target to a right-back in three of their last four games across all competitions including the two against Chelsea (Malo Gusto) and Liverpool (Trent Alexander-Arnold); the first was to Tottenham Hotspur's Pedro Porro in a 2-1 FA Cup fourth-round win on February 9.

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