Crystal Palace vs Newcastle Prediction: Back Isak to score yet again

The race for European Football is very much back on for Newcastle United, whilst the battle to avoid the drop is looking like being won by Crystal Palace. Both sides still have plenty to play for heading into Wednesday’s Premier League clash, which is set for a 20:00 kick-off and is not live on UK TV.

Neil Monnery previews this one and provides his two Best Bets plus a look at the Correct Score market as part of his Crystal Palace vs Newcastle predictions for us at Betfred Insights…

180 minutes of football can completely change perceptions can’t it? Go back just two games and the Eagles were far too close to the bottom three for comfort and Newcastle had just thrown away two points at home to Everton to leave their prospects of returning to European competition looking very dicey indeed.

Well, Palace only went and won at Anfield before tearing West Ham apart on Sunday to move themselves far enough away from the trap door to think that they are all but safe.

Eddie Howe’s men struggled in the first half at the Cottage but managed to come away from west London with the full haul of points, before a tactical masterclass from their manager saw them blow Champions League hopefuls Tottenham Hotspur away.

The home side are now managed by Oliver Glasner and he’s been fortunate enough to have been able to call upon both Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze in recent matches. Roy Hodgson was unable to do that for most of his stint in charge this season and I think that is why they aren’t comfortably mid-table. Both players could easily be starting at top six clubs and when they are on the team sheet, Palace can give anyone a game.

Newcastle’s season has been blighted by injuries but somehow, despite having had a very good starting XI unavailable for long periods this campaign, the Toon have managed to keep themselves in the hunt for Europe.

It doesn’t seem that long ago that there were serious questions about whether Eddie Howe could survive and there was a prevailing wind that José Mourinho was about to saunter in and take over the reins. Those have died down significantly and a strong end to the season and a place in any UEFA competition, would almost certainly see the current management team stay in place.

Wednesday’s game is important for both sides. A win for Crystal Palace would see them get to 39 points and looking at those below, it seems virtually impossible that tally would not be enough to keep them safe. Victory for the visitors would keep them ahead of Manchester United in the race for sixth and a spot in the Europa League.

Team News

The hosts are still without Jefferson Lerma, the man who was once Eddie Howe’s record signing when he was in charge of AFC Bournemouth. The Colombian international is out with a thigh problem that will see him miss the match this week.

Sam Johnstone, Cheick Doucoure, Marc Ghehi and Matheus Franca are all still unavailable for the Austrian manager.

There is a doubt about January signing Adam Wharton, who was taken off in Sunday’s victory over West Ham following a clash of knees with Emerson, although that move was more precautionary and it seems likely he’ll play. The dynamic duo of Eze and Olise are both fit and raring to go and that is very much good news for the home side.

Newcastle’s walking wounded are slowly healing up and the big news is that Callum Wilson was spotted in training with the first team last week. This seems to indicate that he’s likely to be available for the Magpies and a spot on the bench seems likely for the England international striker.

The other long-term absentees aren't expected to make the trip down to Selhurst Park, although several of them are close. The likes of Nick Pope, Kieran Trippier, Miguel Almiron and Joelinton are all expected to return before the end of the season.

Both Lewis Hall and Tino Livermento started on the bench in that 4-0 mauling of Spurs last time out due to a lack of training following knocks. The two full-backs are expected to be available to Eddie Howe from the off, which gives him flexibility over formation having been forced into a 3-5-2 in that victory a week ago on Saturday.

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle Odds

*Please click on the link above for all the latest prices and to bet on this match on the market page on betfred.com

This game is an interesting one odds wise as despite their pretty abject away record this season, the traders have made the Toon Army the betting favourites, available to back at 13/10 for the win as of the time of writing. The Eagles are 13/8 to get the victory, whilst sharing the spoils is priced-up at 5/2.

With their recent good form in front of goal, coupled with Newcastle’s porous backline, it is no surprise that BTTS (1/2) and Over 2.5 Goals (8/13) are both very short prices.

Swedish sensational Alexander Isak has been in red-hot form in recent weeks and the striker is the favourite to score anytime, coming in at 5/4. Jean-Phillippe Mateta scored twice at the weekend for Palace and you can back him at 13/8 to find the back of the net once again.

Remember, check out the market page for all the latest prices, including all the player stat bets available via our #PickYourPunt Bet Builder tool.

Bet 1 - Alexander Isak to score anytime @ 5/4

It may be a bit boring but the form the 24-year-old is in at the moment has been sensational, so to get him at odds against to find the back of the net feels like an obvious play. The Swedish international has scored in five of his past six starts for the club, with his only failure on the road at Craven Cottage, a match in which Newcastle didn’t play well despite their 0-1 victory.

Here though is a stat that you should note. In the 136 minutes that Harvey Barnes, Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon have been the front three so far this campaign, Newcastle have scored eight times, that equates for one every 17 minutes and they are the trio expected to lead the line on Wednesday night. Isak has scored three of them, Barnes with a brace and one for Gordon. That is something to sit up and take notice of.

Bet 2 - Bruno Guimaraes to be carded, Harvey Barnes, Anthony Gordon & Eberechi Eze to have 1+ Shots on Target @ 16/1

For my second selection, I’ve put together a 16/1 Bet Builder using Betfred’s PickYourPunt feature.

The first selection is going to be one of the most popular prop bets of the match by far, as after somehow making it all the way through 11 games on nine yellow cards, Bruno Guimaraes can see a flash of yellow on Wednesday evening without incurring a two-game suspension. How he’s been able to do it, I’m not sure even his manager knows but now he’s got that little bit of wriggle room, the chances of him getting booked have increased significantly.

In addition to that selection, I’ve gone with a trio of attacking players to have a shot on target. Harvey Barnes has been in blistering form, having finally gotten over his freak foot injury, suffered in the Toon’s 0-8 win at Bramall Lane earlier in the campaign. I like him to have at least a shot on target cutting in from the left flank.

His teammate Anthony Gordon knows he needs to improve his numbers on the road having recorded most of his attacking output at home. He commented on it in an interview after the 4-0 win over Tottenham last week and knowing that it is on his mind, I feel he could have be a good one to back for an attacking effort.

I’ve also opted to add in Eberechi Eze. The Crystal Palace attacker has scored in his past two and after a stop-start season, is looking to finish it in fine form and you never know, potentially get a big money move in the summer. His movement will cause Newcastle’s back line trouble.

Bet 3 - Correct Score Prediction - Crystal Palace 1-2 Newcastle United @ 8/1

I have gone back and forth on this one as I can genuinely see all results being possible. The home fans will be looking forward to this one having given West Ham a bit of a hammering on Sunday but the Toon Army will be making the long trip down to London in good spirits as well.

Having Newcastle as slight favourites is probably fair enough and I really like what I saw against Spurs. Dan Burn looks so much better at centre back than he did at left back and that defence that had looked ropey for large parts of the season have secured back-to-back clean sheets. Three in a row feels like a step too far but with Isak’s form and the ability to create on the break, I have Newcastle shading it by the odd goal in three.

Bet Probabilities

Alexander Isak to score anytime is rated as a 44% chance of happening according to the odds of 5/4 available on site. Considering this bet has been a winner in five of the past six Premier League matches, that feels low. The Swedish international has shown in his time in England that he needs a few games to get up to speed following an injury lay-off but once he's in tip-top condition, there aren't many better strikers in the league.

The 16/1 Bet Builder has a 6% chance of being a winner if we convert the odds to implied probability. That feels about right to me. Bruno hasn't been carded since the middle of January but before that, he'd seen yellow in four-straight and in nine of his 20 starts in the league. That potential suspension for hitting ten has now gone away, so he'll play with a bit more freedom. The shots on target selections all feel like a decent chance of happening considering the form of the players selected.

Betting on the Correct Score is always one for low-stakes as it is tough to predict but that 8/1 price works out as an 11% chance of coming in. I do like both teams scoring on Wednesday night but Newcastle's defence has looked better in recent weeks since Dan Burn's move to the middle, so I don't see the types of score lines that Newcastle had been producing. I think Eddie Howe's side should just about win and that is why I've gone with 1-2.

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