Coventry vs Sunderland Prediction: Cov’s home form can pay off

As always when I write Coventry previews, I must disclose that I am a fan of the Sky Blues - but this one feels slightly bigger than the rest. After a superb second half of the season under Frank Lampard, Cov find themselves in the play-offs after 46 matches, where they will take on Sunderland (20:00, Sky Sports Main Event). 

Regis Le Bris’ outfit have switched off over the last few months, knowing fourth place was in the bag, but can they turn it back on again to get themselves promoted? Below you can find my Coventry vs Sunderland predictions. 

Football Odds

Team News

Coventry have a couple of injury issues ahead of this first leg. Ephron Mason-Clark has missed the last five games through injury and is trying to rush back to be fit for this game, but may just miss out. If he is fit enough for the bench, that will be a boost for Lampard, who is having to play Haji Wright on the left wing in his absence. 

Wright started down the middle when he scored a hat-trick against Sunderland in March, but former Black Cat Ellis Simms is likely to hold onto the number nine shirt despite underperforming lately. Tatsuhiro Sakamoto will play on the right, with Ben Sheaf, Matt Grimes and star man Jack Rudoni the midfield three.

Ben Wilson will keep his place in goal having put in a great performance against Middlesbrough - his first start since October 5. Milan van Ewijk and Bobby Thomas will be risked once more having only just come back from injuries of their own, with Liam Kitching and Jake Bidwell available for Lampard to name an unchanged XI. 

Sunderland have played the last few months knowing the play-offs were on the horizon and as a result, they will travel to Coventry with a near fully-fit squad. Anthony Patterson will start in goal behind a back four of Trai Hume, Chris Mepham, Luke O’Nien and Dennis Cirkin. Jobe Bellingham and Dan Neil will play in midfield, with Enzo Le Fee the most likely to join them in the middle of the park. 

Patrick Roberts could feature on the right side of the attack, while Romaine Mundle may miss out according to his manager. “It will be a bit short for Romaine (Mundle) and Aji (Alese) to be involved in the first-leg,” he said in his pre-match press conference. 

Wilson Isidor looks like the favourite to secure that striker spot ahead of Eliezer Mayenda. It means Chris Rigg will have to settle for a spot on the bench, as Le Bris hopes his squad can find their pre-Christmas form once again. 

Coventry vs Sunderland Odds

Coventry are 13/10 to win this home game, giving them an implied win probability of 43%. Sunderland can be backed at 23/10 while a draw is 21/10, showing just how tough to call this first leg may be. 

Over 2.5 goals that came in during both regular season meetings is 11/8 and BTTS is 1/1, while Wright is the favourite to open the scoring at 5/1, having hit a three against the Black Cats when the two last met. 

Coventry to win @ 13/10

I’m going to back my boys - and for good reason as well. Sunderland can talk about not being focused on the regular league games of late, but the fact of the matter is that they have now lost five in a row heading into the play-offs, and are heading to the CBS, where they lost 3-0 just six weeks ago. Sunderland haven't beaten Coventry in their last 10 attempts, but I'm not going to focus too much on that.

Instead, let's look at their home form. The Sky Blues have been utterly superb in front of their own fans since Lampard walked through the door, losing to only Leeds United and Burnley at the CBS since he was appointed. Amazingly, he’s won 11 of his 15 home matches, drawing two and losing those two only against a couple 100-point teams in the Championship. 

It gives me belief that in front of a sell-out crowd on Friday night, when the atmosphere will be electric, Coventry can come out all guns firing and win this game. I believe we will see a rapid start from Lampard’s men, while I also think there is an argument to be made that Sunderland may not be that unhappy if they only lose this game by one goal heading back to the Stadium of Light. Cov need the home win, and I think they will get it. 

Jack Rudoni to score anytime @ 18/5 

The main man for Coventry this season is still a fantastic price to find the net in this one. The former Huddersfield man scored two crucial goals against Middlesbrough on the final day to put the Sky Blues into the play-offs and take his personal tally to the season for nine. 

Only Wright has scored more goals this season for Coventry, but Rudoni has really come to the fore under Lampard. He’s got it all, and while he is also the assist king with 12, I think we should back him to get a goal. The Cov boss likes to see his side cross the ball, and Rudoni has been a major beneficiary of that tactic, using his height to score a few headers, including the opener against Boro. 

It’s going to be a big game, and we should back Cov’s latest star to rise to the challenge. 

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