Corinthians vs Sao Paulo Prediction: Cards to come out in Classico Majestoso

We've got the Classico Majestoso to look forward to in Brazil's Serie A on Thursday (22:30 GMT, Premier Sports 2), as Sao Paulo take a trip across the country's most populous city to take on rivals Corinthians at the Neo Quimica Arena.
Below are my Corinthians vs Sao Paulo predictions, alongside all the latest team news and match odds.
Corinthians vs Sao Paulo Betting Tips
*Odds correct as of the time of publication
Team News
Memphis Depay was in international action for the Netherlands on Monday, helping his country to a 4-0 victory over Lithuania in Amsterdam, but he should be back in Brazil to lead the line for Corinthians on Thursday.
Rodrigo Garro misses out, however, as he is suspended, while Andre (ankle), Raniele (hamstring), Hugo Souza (leg) and Vitinho (knee) all look set to miss out due to injury.
Seven Corinthian players, including Depay, are at risk of missing their side's next game, at Cruzeiro on Sunday, as they are one yellow away from a ban.
Speaking of suspensions, Andre Carillo is back after he served a ban for an accumulation of yellow cards in Corinthians' 1-0 home defeat to Ceara on November 9.
Sao Paulo, meanwhile, are missing a whole host of players, including knee-injury victims Jonathan Calleri, Juan Dinneno, Ryan Francisco, Andre Silva and Rodriguinho.
Wendell (heel), Pablo Maia (foot), Luan Silva (muscle) and Marcos Antonio (hamstring) are also believed to be confined to the Sao Paulo treatment room, while former Chelsea playmaker Oscar continues to miss out with a heart problem.
Corinthians vs Sao Paulo Predicted Lineups
- Corinthians: Felipe Longo; Matheuzinho, Andre Ramalho, Gustavo Henrique, Matheus Bidu; Carillo, Maycon, Breno Bidon, Dieguinho; Yuri Alberto, Depay
- Sao Paulo: Rafael; Franco, Robert Arboleda, Sabino; Maik, Bobadilla, Luiz Gustavo, Diaz; Lucas Moura; Ferreira, Luciano
Corinthians, who have lost their last two games and are winless in the last seven head-to-heads with Sao Paulo (D1, L6), are 13/10 to win the Classico Majestoso for the first time since July 2023, implying a 43.5% probability of success. The visitors, meanwhile, can be backed at 11/5, or a 31.3% chance, to return to winning ways after a 1-0 home defeat to Red Bull Bragantino on November 9, with the draw priced at 2/1.
Corinthians vs Sao Paulo Stats
- SAO received four red cards across three H2Hs last year
- SAO have been shown four reds across their last four games
- Breno Bidon (SAO) has picked up 10 cards (nine yellows, one red) in 29 Serie A apps this term
Home Team Red Card Yes/No - Yes @ 9/2
Both previous meetings this year between Corinthians and Sao Paulo have been feisty affairs, with five on-field yellow cards awarded in a January 3-1 win for the latter and four in July's 2-0 victory. Still, no reds were issued, which made a change from last year's head-to-heads, when four were handed out across three games.
All four reds were handed to Corinthians players, with Caetano dismissed for violent conduct in Sao Paulo's 2-1 win at the Neo Quimica Arena in January last year.
Caetano was handed his marching orders again at the same venue in last year's 2-2 draw in June, and in Sao Paulo's 3-1 victory at the Estadio Nacional Mane Garrincha three months later, Fagner was sent off in the first half for two bookable offences, was followed in the second half by Andre Ramalho, who received a straight red.
Corinthians' discipline has been under scrutiny again this season, with only Fortaleza and Red Bull Bragantino (both 98) picking up more yellow cards than Timao (97), who have played a game fewer than the latter.
While Dorival Jr.'s side have only received four reds, three of those have arrived in their last four games.
Breno Bidon was dismissed in a 1-0 win at Vitoria on October 25, and in their 2-1 loss at Bragantino on November 5, both Jose Martinez and Charles Rigon saw red.
So, in the Classico Majestoso, where emotions are usually high, 9/2 looks like a decent price to back a red card for the home side.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Player to Receive a Card - Breno de Souza Bidon (COR) @ 12/5
Only Jose Martinez (12 - 11 yellows, one red) has been shown more Serie A cards for Corinthians this season than Breno Bidon (10 - nine yellows, one red), who is averaging a card every 2.9 games.
The 20-year-old has avoided a card in his last two appearances, but in his side's final game of October, a 1-0 win at Vitoria, he was sent off for two bookable offences.
The Brazilian, linked with overseas moves to some big European clubs, is averaging 2.1 fouls per game in this season's Serie A, up from one per game last year, when he picked up five yellows in 29 appearances (22 starts).
Sao Paulo are likely to start several players who win, on average, at least a foul per game, including Luiz Gustavo (one), Alisson (1.1), Luciano (1.4) and Ferreirinha (1.6), so the Corinthians ace may be forced to concede a few free-kicks on Thursday, with a card a very real possibility for him.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
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