Colombia vs Chile Prediction: Hosts hard to back against in Barranquilla

Colombia's unbeaten run in 2026 Fifa World Cup qualifying came to an end last Thursday as they were beaten 1-0 by Bolivia in El Alto. Los Cafeteros will be looking to return to winning ways on Tuesday (21:30) when they host Chile at Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Melendez.

Below you can find my Colombia vs Chile prediction alongside all the latest team news and match odds ahead of this round 10 clash in Barranquilla.

Team News

Colombia were unbeaten in regulation time in their last 31 outings heading into last Thursday's clash at Estadio Municipal de El Alto but despite Bolivia going down to 10 men inside 20 minutes, the hosts emerged 1-0 winners thanks to a 58th-minute strike from Miguelito.

Such a defeat would ordinarily bring about several changes, but it has to be remembered the altitude they were playing at, Bolivia's terrific recent home record, and the fact Colombia had won 13 of their previous 16 games - this is a brilliant Colombian team, one of the best international sides of the last two years, and there doesn't need to be a knee-jerk reaction to last week's result.

Jhon Duran is one player who could profit from a rare Colombian blank in front of goal as he returns from suspension. The Aston Villa striker had to watch on in frustration on Thursday but is in line to replace the injured Roger Martinez at the point of attack following a sensational start to the club season, one which has seen him net six times for his club side. Four of those efforts have been winning goals, the latest of which saw him net past legendary Bayern Munich goalkeeper Manuel Neuer to hand the Villans a historic victory over the German giants.

If he beats Jhon Cordoba to a starting spot, Duran is likely to be flanked by James Rodriguez and Luis Diaz, as he was in last month's 2-1 win against Argentina at the same venue as Tuesday's game. Behind the trio, Jhon Arias should remain, but Kevin Castano and Mateus Uribe could be replaced by Jefferson Lerma and Richard Rios, who were only utilised as second-half substitutes in El Alto.

Lerman's Crystal Palace teammate, Daniel Munoz, is injured and wasn't able to be called up for the international fixtures this month, allowing Santiago Arias to return at right-back. The 32-year-old should get the nod again this week along with goalkeeper Camilo Vargas, but the starting spots of centre-backs Willer Ditta and Jhon Lucumi, as well as left-back Cristian Borja, are vulnerable.

Experienced internationals Yerry Mina and Davinson Sanchez could earn recalls in the middle of defence, while Johan Mojica is an option to come in for Borja.

Football Odds

We're only at the halfway stage of the World Cup qualification campaign for the South American nations, but Chile's chances of making the showpiece event in 2026 already look unlikely as they have won just one of their first nine games, losing their last three.

La Roja can take positives from last Thursday's 2-1 defeat to Brazil, however, as they took the lead inside two minutes through Eduardo Vargas and held out until first-half added time when Igor da Cruz equalised for the visitors in Santiago. It took Brazil until the 89th minute to find a winner via a terrific strike from Luiz Henrique, and so Chile shouldn't be totally dishevelled heading into Tuesday's contest.

Certainly, after opening the scoring last week, Vargas is expected to keep his place in attack, likely alongside Dario Osorio and Victor Davila again in the absence of talismanic captain Alexis Sanchez, who remains injured.

Ricardo Gareca could opt to name an unchanged starting XI which would mean a midfield trio of Diego Valdes, Esteban Pavez and Rodrigo Echeverria and a four-man backline of Felipe Loyola, Benjamin Kuscevic, Guillermo Maripan and Thomas Galdames in front of goalkeeper Brayan Cortes.

Colombia vs Chile Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Colombia vs Chile page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Unsurprisingly, Colombia (4/11) are heavy favourites to take all three points on Tuesday, giving the hosts an implied win probability of 73.3%. Chile, meanwhile, can be backed at 7/1 (12.5%) to get the better of Los Cafeteros for the first time since June 2016, and the draw is priced at 3/1.

Both teams to score is available at 6/4, over 2.5 total goals at 6/5, and a repeat of last September's goalless draw in Santiago at 8/1.

Martinez (6/4) currently heads the anytime goalscorer market but looks unlikely to feature on Tuesday so teammates Duran and Cordoba (both 8/5) are more realistic contenders to net in Barranquilla, followed by Diaz (13/8). Vargas is considered Chile's most likely goalscorer at 5/1.

To Win to Nil - Colombia @ 9/10

I'm going slightly on the safe side with my first selection and backing Colombia to win to nil at 9/10 - don't worry, there is more value to be had in my second pick.

Initially, I considered Colombia to win and under 2.5 total goals as half (two) of their four wins in World Cup qualifying have seen that bet land - one that didn't was last month's 2-1 victory over reigning World Cup and Copa America champions Argentina, and the other a win by the same scoreline against fellow South American heavyweights Brazil. Six of their nine qualifiers so far have seen two or fewer goals, while four of Chile's have seen fewer than three.

However, I opted against under 2.5 total goals as there have been exactly three scored in Chile's last three games, with Friday's 2-1 defeat to Brazil following a loss by the same scoreline to Bolivia last month and a 3-0 reverse to Argentina four days before that. Chile were also humbled 3-0 by Venezuela last October and 3-1 in Uruguay a month prior.

Colombia are also well-stacked in attack and I wouldn't put it past them all clicking on Tuesday and inflicting a heavy defeat on their opponents. Los Cafeteros smashed Panama 5-0 in the Copa America quarter-finals in the USA in July and also beat Costa Rica 3-0 in the group stage, and seven of their nine wins in 2024 have seen over 2.5 goals.

So, instead, I'm backing Colombia to win to nil, a bet that has won five times this calendar year. Lorenzo's side are due a clean sheet after failing to keep one in any of their three World Cup qualifiers since the start of September, and Chile are an ideal opponent to face to get back on the shutout trail.

La Roja have blanked in 10 of their last 13 competitive games stretching back to a couple of World Cup qualifiers against Brazil and Uruguay in March 2022. They've failed to score in five of their nine matches in the current qualification campaign and were dumped out of the 2024 Copa America at the group stage without scoring a goal in three contests against Peru (0-0), Argentina (0-1), and Canada (0-0).

The continued absence of Sanchez weakens them considerably in the forward department, although Vargas has stepped up superbly in the last couple of games, striking first-half efforts past Bolivia and Brazil.

Crucially, though, those goals came at home, in Santiago, and Chile have scored just once on their travels in qualifying - a consolation effort from Arturo Vidal in a 3-1 defeat to Uruguay in Montevideo last September.

Colombia have conceded four goals at home in as many games but half of those were to Uruguay in a 2-2 draw - the other two in 2-1 victories over Paraguay and Argentina. The Paraguay strike will particularly irk Lorenzo but they have also kept a clean sheet at home to Venezuela, whom they beat 1-0 in Barranquilla over a year ago.

Ultimately, I see this being an easy triumph for Colombia, possibly by a 2-0 or 3-0 scoreline, but let's be safe with a win to nil at 9/10.

First Goalscorer - Jhon Duran (COL) @ 4/1

Lorenzo has the chance to make this selection look stupid if he opts, like Unai Emery has done for the most part so far this season, to bench Duran and utilise him as a second-half super sub. Cordoba replaced Martinez midway through the first half of last Thursday's defeat to Bolivia and is more than capable himself of leading the line in Barranquilla - in all honesty it was a surprise not to see him start in El Alto after being Colombia's number one striker at the Copa America and netting twice.

However, it was Duran who got the nod in last month's victory over Argentina and given his start to the season, and how fresh he should be, there's a great chance that the 20-year-old is thrust back into the starting XI against Chile.

Five of Duran's six goals this season have been scored as a substitute, but that's because he's only started once - a 2-1 Carabao Cup victory over Wycombe Wanderers last month, when he scored a penalty.

The former Chicago Fire forward has only found the net once in 12 senior caps for his country and that was in March 2023 when he fired a first-half equaliser in a 2-1 win against Japan.

Duran started that game, and I fancy him to take his chance early on if he is tasked with fronting the Colombian attack at home to Chile.

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