Colombia vs Bolivia Prediction: Home win will secure World Cup spot

Colombia know that one win from their final two qualification matches will confirm their place at the World Cup next summer, but as they host Bolivia (00:30 BST, Friday), they also know that simply matching Venezuela’s result this matchday will get them there.

With a four-point gap to seventh place and a much healthier goal difference, it seems unfathomable that Los Cafeteros won’t feature in the United States of America, Mexico and Canada in 2026. Below you can find my Colombia vs Bolivia predictions featuring team news and more.

Team News

Jhon Duran is the big absentee from the Colombia squad having missed Fenerbahce’s last game before the international break, and so we can expect Jhon Cordoba to lead the line in this one. La Liga duo Yaser Asprilla and Cucho Hernandez are also out of the squad but captain James Rodriguez is included at the age of 34.

Premier League duo Jefferson Lerma and new Wolves man Jhon Arias should feature with Bayern Munich’s Luis Diaz the key man in the attacking third. Interestingly, Dayro Moreno has been handed a shock call-up at the age of 39, and he last made the squad back in 2016. He has scored an impressive goalscoring record for Once Caldas, but his team currently sit second-bottom of the Clausura table in Colombia. 

Football Odds

Bolivia will be without winger Lucas Chaves through suspension after he was sent off early on in their home win over Chile. Ramiro Vaca is also injured, while Boris Cespedes has been left out of the squad altogether. 

Miguelito is the star of this team having scored six goals in 10 appearances during this qualification campaign. 

Colombia vs Bolivia Odds

Colombia are the 1/9 favourites to win this game, giving them an implied win probability of 90% for this home match. Bolivia are the 16/1 underdogs to find a rare away win while a draw is 6/1. 

Over 2.5 goals is 4/9, BTTS is 6/4 and Luis Diaz is the favourite to score first at 5/2. 

Colombia to win with -2 handicap @ 23/20

Nestor Lorenzo needs a win to take some pressure off, given they haven’t won a match since last October. This should be the perfect fixture for the home side, given Bolivia have notoriously struggled on road - to put it lightly. 

Bolivia didn’t win a single away match in World Cup qualifying for 67 consecutive games between 1993 and September 2024, when they secured a 2-1 away win at Chile to bring an end to over 30 years of struggle. At home, at high altitude, it is a different story, but on the road they are pretty tragic. 

Colombia have drawn their last three matches, including getting a point away at Argentina last time out, so they should be able to qualify for the World Cup in style.

Correct score - Colombia 3-0 Bolivia @ 5/1 

I don’t like the look of any of the goalscorer options, with Luis Diaz just 4/6 to score at any time. So instead, I’ve plucked out a correct score in search of some value. Colombia have only failed to score once in their last four matches, while they enjoyed a big 4-0 home win over Chile in October last year. 

Meanwhile, Bolivia have lost three of their last four away games to nil, so I think the 3-0 pick offers the best value in terms of a correct scoreline. More of a hunch than a pick backed by data this one. 

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