Chile vs Ecuador Prediction: Big price for in-form away side

Ecuador’s third win in a row on Friday has carried them up to second place in Conmebol qualifying, and they are now within touching distance of the World Cup after a wonderful campaign. They beat Venezuela 2-1 last time out, and now travel to Santiago to face Chile, the nation that now sit bottom of the table after a 1-0 defeat to Paraguay last time out. 

Below you can take a look at my Chile vs Ecuador Predictions featuring team news and betting tips.

Team News

Chile were without talisman Alexis Sanchez against Paraguay but it is hoped that he will be fit to return in this one. There are still concerns around Fabian Hormazabal however, as he withdrew from the squad late on while Norwich City star Marcelino Nunez is another key absentee. 

Football Odds

Eduardo Vargas should lead the line again while Arturo Vidal is set to win his 146th cap for his country. River Plate’s Paulo Diaz made the most passes and the most tackles in the defeat to Paraguay, so expect him to lead the defence once more. 

Ecuador are likely to name an unchanged XI following another impressive win over Venezuela. Enner Valencia scored twice as he closes in on 100 international caps, while the midfield trio of Pedro Vite, Alan Franco and Chelsea’s Moises Caicedo is proving to be difficult to beat. 

Brighton’s Pervis Estupinian continues to provide an elite option at left-back while 37-year-old goalkeeper Hernan Galindez will target a clean sheet against the bottom of the table outfit. 

Chile vs Ecuador Odds

Chile are surprisingly the favourites to win this game, priced at 6/4, which gives them an implied win probability of 40%. Ecuador are available at 9/5, while a draw can be backed at 15/8 in Santiago. 

Over 2.5 goals is available at 13/8, BTTS is 11/10 and Enner Valencia is the favourite to open the scoring at 5/1. 

Ecuador to win @ 9/5 

Ummm am I missing something here? I respect our intelligent traders at Betfred.com, but there is absolutely no way Ecuador should be outsiders for this one, let alone available at such a big price. Sebastian Beccacece has revolutionised this side since taking the job and they are now on the brink of World Cup qualification after going six games without defeat, since a respectable 1-0 loss to Brazil. 

Built on a solid defence, they’ve won four of those six games and the goal they conceded against Venezuela last time out was the only goals they’ve conceded during this unbeaten run. Still, thanks to their talismanic striker Valencia, they got the job done and they should be able to beat Chile here. 

Unlike Ecuador, Chile just can’t find any form. They have an ageing squad of players who are way past their best and it has backfired this campaign as they have won just two of 13 games. A win against Venezuela looked to have got them back on track, but that has been their only competitive success in seven games since their Copa America group stage exit - after they failed to score a goal in that tournament. Away win for me. 

Scorecast: Chile 0-1 Ecuador, Valencia to score first @ 25/1

Despite my confidence in the away side, I will back a scorecast here featuring a narrow away win. Ecuador love a clean sheet, having kept five on the bounce before their win over Venezuala, and their best goal threat by a mile is Valencia. The former West Ham striker turned Ecuador captain is such a reliable goalscorer for them, having bagged 46 in 96 appearances. Will he reach 50 goals before his 100th cap?

It’s going to be a close-run thing, but I’m backing him to score once again in Santiago, having hit two against Venezuela. He’s the penalty-taker and sole striker in this 4-5-1 system, so let’s back him to score, and Ecuador to keep another clean sheet.  

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