Chelsea vs Newcastle Prediction: Thriller at Stamford Bridge?

After another comfortable win in the Conference League, Chelsea will turn their attention back to Premier League matters on Sunday as they host Newcastle United at Stamford Bridge (Sky Sports Main Event, 14:00). Enzo Maresca’s men sit in sixth in the table after losing to Liverpool last weekend, but it’s been a positive start to the new campaign.

Meanwhile, Newcastle manager Eddie Howe can put to bed any speculation of him leaving for the England job and focus on getting his side up the table. The Magpies haven’t won any of their last four league games heading into this double-header with Chelsea, with the pair set to meet again on Wednesday in the Carabao Cup. Below you can find my Chelsea vs Newcastle prediction featuring team news and betting tips. 

Team News

Reece James is set to start again for Chelsea following his comeback from injury, after he was handed a surprise start against Liverpool last weekend. Meanwhile, Marc Cucurella and Wesley Fofana are both back from suspensions which means that on paper, Maresca nearly has a fully-fit squad to choose from. Romeo Lavia is fit again after his hamstring problem, while fringe player Omari Kellyman is the only absentee ahead of the weekend. 

The manager is likely to return to his ‘Premier League XI’ having rung the changes again on Thursday, but Joao Felix’s brace may have put him ahead of Jadon Sancho in the pecking order. Christopher Nkunku also continues to impress, but Nicolas Jackson is expected to hold onto his starting spot. Robert Sanchez will come back into the side although he is under pressure from Filip Jorgensen while Marc Cucurella could offer a more natural option at left-back than Malo Gusto.

For Newcastle, Eddie Howe stated that Callum Wilson would miss this game with his back injury, as the former Bournemouth man has suffered a setback in his recovery. He joins Sven Botman, Kieran Trippier, Jamaal Lascelles and Martin Dubravka on the sidelines but Dan Burn is available for selection after his knock last weekend. 

Harvey Barnes could come into the XI that lost to Brighton in place of Jacob Murphy, while former Chelsea duo Tino Livramento and Lewis Hall are both in line to start in the full-back roles. Howe will hope that one of Bruno Guimaraes, Alexander Isak or Anthony Gordon can provide the magic in the capital. 

Chelsea vs Newcastle Odds

Chelsea are 8/11 to win this game, giving them an implied win probability of 57%, while Newcastle are available at 100/30. A draw can be backed at 16/5, over 2.5 goals is 4/9 and BTTS is the same price. Cole Palmer is the favourite to open the scoring at 7/2. 

Chelsea to win and BTTS @ 9/5

I’m pretty confident siding with Chelsea heading into this one based on what we have seen in recent weeks but I also feel we could be in for an exciting and entertaining clash. There’s just so much attacking quality on display that even on their worst day, I think Newcastle will be able to grab a goal. 

They’ve been dangerous in recent games at the Bridge with their meeting in March ending 3-2 to the home side, while both teams have scored in the last four meetings in all competitions between these two. With Gordon and Isak on the break, it could suit Newcastle - but ultimately I still think they will lose. Chelsea are in a great place right now, and Maresca deserves credit for the way he is managing this squad. With the Magpies out of form, and Chelsea in a purple patch (Liverpool defeat excluded), we should see an entertaining home win.

Cole Palmer to score anytime @ 23/20

Palmer got criticised for his performance at Anfield, but he’s still Chelsea’s star man. He’s also a fan of home comforts and how’s this for a stat. The England man who scored in the Euro 2024 final averages a goal or assist every 63 minutes at Stamford Bridge in the PL, a figure only Erling Haaland can beat. 

He’s got six goals in eight league games so far this season and I’d be happy to back him to add to it on Sunday. Chelsea are a decent side in 2024/25, and I’m less convinced about Newcastle. But this is a game that Palmer should be able to take by the scruff of the neck. 

Offers

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