Charlton vs Millwall Prediction: London derby offers big value

We’ve got an interesting London derby coming our way in the Championship on Saturday lunchtime as Charlton Athletic host Millwall at the Valley (12:30, Sky Sports Main Event). Nathan Jones has lost his last two games, while Millwall have won two away games so far, but lost twice at home. 

So, how is this one going to go down? Below you will find my Charlton vs Millwall predictions featuring team news and more. 

Team News

The international break seemingly came at a good time for Jones, who has been happy to have a weekend off. "We’ve used the two weeks to get a bit of minutes into a few people, to rest up one or two and then there’s been one or two away,” he said in his pre-match press conference. 

“We’ve got a huge game on the weekend which we’re looking forward to. Reece Burke has had minutes, so has James Bree who’s had more work into his legs. Then [Charlie] Kelman and [Tanto] Olaofe have needed that time and they’ve done that, so they’re all up to speed with greater oomph if you like."

Miles Leaburn could drop out of the side up top if Kelman is ready to go from the off, while Tyreece Campbell and Harvey Knibbs will battle it out for that left wing spot. The versatile Joe Rankin-Costello is an option in midfield or at right-back, although you feel Bree will get the nod in defence given his long-standing relationship with the manager. 

Football Odds

Alex Neil will be delighted that Mihailo Ivanovic is still at the club, although he is yet to get off the mark this season. He will partner Josh Coburn up top and despite a defeat to Wrexham last time out, I don’t think the manager will make too many changes. 

Joe Bryan is a more experienced option at left-back and could be called upon for this derby, while Caleb Taylor offers another option at right-back or centre-back after arriving from West Brom. Will Smallbone is an eye-catching loan addition, but he is currently injured and will play no part in this one.

Today's Football Fixtures

Charlton vs Millwall Odds

Charlton are priced as the 7/5 favourites to win this game, while Millwall can be backed at 11/5 for the win. That gives the Addicks an implied win probability of 42%, while a draw is available at 2/1. 

Kelman is the 5/1 favourite to score first, while over 2.5 goals is 6/4 and BTTS is 11/10. 

Price Boost - Massimo Luongo to be carded @ 11/4

It’s a derby game, so we have to back a player to get a yellow card right? Massimo Luongo has slotted straight into Millwall’s midfield since arriving from Ipswich Town, and his experience is going to be key to their success this season. 

At 32, he was a major figure in Ipswich’s back-to-back promotions, before unfortunately only making two Premier League starts, in the opening two defeats to Liverpool and Manchester City. A fan-favourite for Ipswich, he is a big miss in terms of his character, but he also isn’t afraid of getting stuck in on the pitch. He racked up 11 yellows in 43 Championship appearances while playing for a very good Town side in 2023/24, and I’d expect him to get close to that figure again this term. 

In a tough derby match, I think we should take advantage of this Luongo Price Boost. 

Millwall to win to nil @ 18/5

I’m going to back Neil’s team to win to nil in what should be a really tight encounter. The Lions got torn to shreds by Middlesbrough at home, and then they were unfortunate to lose against Wrexham at the Den, but on the road they have looked strong. They beat Norwich City 2-1 before going to Bramall Lane and securing a 1-0 success, with two further Carabao Cup victories thrown in as well.

Neil has a promotion with Norwich on his Championship CV, and he’s a great fit for Millwall. Despite losing Japhet Tanganga, the defence remains rock solid, and the 4-4-2 system is relatively simple to play. Charlton meanwhile have now lost three games on the bounce in all competitions, and are winless in their last 12 against Millwall, so I’ll back them to just come up short again in this one. 

Offers

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