Swansea vs Derby Prediction: Rams go for five in a row

My, oh my. Derby County’s midweek win made it four in a row for John Eustace and the Rams have now climbed out of the relegation zone. It seemed like an impossibility two months ago, but you have to say they are now looking likely to stay up after this incredible run. 

Their next test comes away at Swansea City (Saturday, 15:00), a side who aren’t completely safe, but look like they have enough in the bank to stay up. Below you can find my Swansea vs Derby predictions as we take a look at this clash. 

Football Odds

Team News

Having come off the bench to bag a late equaliser at Elland Road, Zan Vipotnik will hope to be thrust into the starting XI for this one. Alan Sheehan didn’t name a recognised striker against Leeds, and it worked as they escaped with a point. It could have been more had Josh Tymon converted his penalty, but they will be delighted with that result. 

Vipotnik should start up top as we can expect Swansea to go back to the 4-2-3-1 system that they have used in most games this term. Ji-Sung Eom could also play on the wing, with Liam Cullen and Lewis O’Brien likely to continue their run of games in midfield. Harry Darling’s return from injury was well-timed, and he should partner Ben Cabango at the heart of the defence, in front of Lawrence Vigouroux. 

Derby are likely to be without Ryan Nyambe after he went off after just four minutes on Wednesday night. His injury issues mean that Kane Wilson will play at right-back, while Erik Pieters is waiting for his first minutes for the club having joined the club as a free agent last week. 

Nathaniel Mendez-Laing was also back in the squad in midweek having returned from his month-long injury and that could be a massive boost for Eustace. Marcus Harness and Jerry Yates will continue their fantastic partnership up front in their 3-5-2 system. 

Swansea vs Derby Odds

Swansea are priced at 21/20 to win this home game, giving them an implied win probability of 49% heading into this one. Derby are good value at 3/1 to win in Wales while a draw can be backed at 11/5. 

Over 2.5 goals is 5/4, BTTS is 1/1 and Liam Cullen is the favourite to score first at 5/1 having already scored 10 this term. 

Derby to win @ 3/1

We got a winner by backing Derby to win in midweek, while I also picked out the 2-0 correct scoreline in the Football Bet of the Day, but Harness let us down for the first goal. I see no reason why we shouldn’t go back to the well this weekend, especially given the odds on offer. Now, Derby are currently in a ridiculous goalscoring run which has seen them score nine of their last 11 shots on target.

But confidence is a massive thing in football, and they are full of it. Swansea did extremely well to rescue a point at Leeds, but I’m not sure they are set for a massive improvement with the season coming to an end. It makes far more sense to back Derby to make it five in a row, given the form they are in. Derby have won four games in the last month. Swansea have won three in 2025. Let’s back an away win at a big price. 

Derby to win both halves @ 14/1

This is an outrageous price given Derby’s form. This run of four wins on the bounce has seen them overcome Blackburn, Coventry, Plymouth and Preston on their way out of the relegation zone and I don’t think Swansea are that much better than any of those in truth. 

They are a bottom half outfit with nothing to play for other than a bit of pride. Sheehan is trying to make his mark on this squad but I think this at best is a 50/50 game, so to get such value on Derby to do a job on the Swans is a gift we have to take. 14/1 on the Rams to win both halves is a gamble worth taking in my eyes. 

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