Bristol City vs Sheffield United Prediction: Low-scoring first-leg expected

So here we are, the Championship play-off semi-finals. The first one gets underway on Thursday night as Bristol City host Sheffield United at Ashton Gate (Sky Sports Main Event, 20:00). Sheffield United came so close to making it into the top two but couldn’t keep pace with the unrelenting Leeds United and Burnley and so they face the dreaded play-offs once again.

Below you can find my Bristol City vs Sheffield United predictions featuring betting tips and predictions.

Football Odds

Team News

Bristol City have a whole host of injury issues heading into the play-offs, which has seen Liam Manning name only eight subs rather than nine in recent weeks. The main focus will be on Cam Pring, who is racing to get back from injury in time, but may only be risked for the second leg. 

It means we could see an unchanged XI from the team that drew with Preston, although Anis Mehmeti will be keen to force his way into the side. Nahki Wells should lead the line ahead of Max Bird and Scott Twine if he edges out Mehmeti once more, while star man Jason Knight will start alongside Joe Williams in midfield. 

Ross McCrorie scored twice and will play on the left, with Haydon Roberts a candidate to replace Yu Hirakawa on the right. George Tanner, Rob Dickie and Zak Vyner should start ahead of David O’Leary in goal.

Meanwhile, the benefit to Sheffield United knowing they were in the play-offs with two games to go means that Chris Wilder has been able to rest and rotate key players where necessary. It means they head into this tie with only a handful of injury issues. Ollie Arblaster and Rhys Norrington-Davies are the long-term absentees and Femi Seriki picked up an issue that saw him go to hospital, and Sheffield United finished the game against Blackburn with 10 men. 

Aside from that, Wilder has a fully-fit squad to pick from, with Tyrese Campbell likely to lead the line. Star man Gustavo Hamer will start on the left again, while Callum O’Hare seems the most likely to start in the number 10 role at Ashton Gate. Ben Brereton Diaz, Jesurun Rak-Sakyi and Andre Brooks will compete for the right-wing spot with the former Blackburn man the most likely to get the nod. 

Vinicius Souza and Sydie Peck will line-up in midfield, while the back four in front of Michael Cooper should see Alfie Gilchrist, Anel Ahmedhodzic, Rob Holding and Harrison Burrows all line up.

Bristol City vs Sheffield United Odds

Bristol City are priced at 9/5 to win this home leg, while Sheffield United are 7/4 to take the win. That gives the away side an implied win probability 36% while a draw can be backed at 2/1. Goals are usually hard to come by in these first legs so over 2.5 goals is up at 13/8. 

BTTS by the same measure is 11/10 and Wells and Campbell are joint-favourites to open the scoring at 6/1. 

Under 1.5 goals @ 6/4

Shall we start with Sheffield United’s play-off record? The Blades are competing in the play-offs in the second tier for the sixth time, failing to earn promotion on each of the previous five occasions. So you can begin to understand why their fans are a little edgy having missed out on automatic promotion. 

They face a Bristol City outfit that has recorded a low total of 68 points to make it into the play-offs, and they face their first play-off campaign since the reached the final in 2008. It’s all new for Manning’s men, and they will hope to make it all the way to Wembley. 

Unfortunately, I don’t see this first leg being entertaining at all. The away side know they will drastically increase their odds of reaching the final if they can go back to Bramall Lane with the scores level and having taken four points against the Robins this term, they will be confident they can progress from the two-legged tie. 

I just can’t see them opening up here, while Bristol City will also be nervous of losing this game at home and will want to keep things tight at the back. This is going to be a tense game, and I’ll start by backing under 1.5 goals at Ashton Gate.

Bristol City 0-0 Sheffield United @ 6/1

Both first legs in the Championship play-offs last season finished 0-0, with the stronger teams in Southampton and Leeds United more than happy to take things back to their home ground all-square. I see the exact pattern being followed here, with Sheffield United’s goalkeeper Michael Cooper a superstar in the making. 

Both defences will want clean sheets, and with Bristol City’s injury problems I can’t see them going out and putting the Blades to the sword - pardon the pun. I think we are getting a massive price on another first leg stalemate, which would suit Wilder just fine. 

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