Riga vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction: Hosts aim to claw back deficit

FC Ararat-Armenia head to Latvia with a 2-0 lead to protect in this Champions League qualifying tie second leg on Tuesday evening (8pm local, 6pm BST). Hosts Riga FC have never made it past the first round of Champions League qualifying, but their recent home record in Europe gives them some hope of a comeback on Tuesday night.

Below are my Riga vs Ararat-Armenia predictions, alongside team news and match odds.

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Team News

Riga's defeat at Kotaik Stadium last week saw goalkeeper Frenks Orols sent off in the second half. Krisjanis Zviedris came off the bench to fill in, and he's set for a starting role on Tuesday night.

The visitors have a full-strength squad to choose from, but they could tweak their lineup after Franca scored as a substitute in the first leg.

Football Odds

Riga vs Ararat-Armenia Odds

Riga head into this clash as 8/11 favourites, with the draw priced at 13/5. FC Ararat-Armenia are 3/1 to build on their first-leg victory.

Goals are expected here, with over 2.5 goals and both teams to score each priced at 4/5.

Riga to win (90 mins) @ 7/10

Riga enjoyed one of their best European runs last summer, when they reached the final qualifying round of the Conference League.

The Latvian side fell to Sparta Prague 2-1 on aggregate, but their impressive stretch of results at home suggests this tie isn't over yet.

The hosts won all three of their home matches in Europe last summer, beating Sparta Prague 1-0. Their away record ultimately let them down, and their defeat in Armenia last week was their eighth loss in their previous nine away games in Europe.

However, Riga have won each of their last four home qualifiers, and they've failed to win only two of the 10 home matches they've played in Europe since the 2022/23 season.

Coincidentally, Ararat-Armenia's run last season ended with home and away defeats to Sparta Prague in the third round of the Conference League qualifiers. The visitors have a patchy return in their European trips, and they could be vulnerable in this second leg.

Riga have won nine of their previous 11 home matches in their domestic league, and the hosts can at least get back in this tie at home.

Riga to win 1-0 (90 mins) @ 6/1

Riga have won five straight home league games, and they've kept four clean sheets during that spell. Their home record in Europe has been built on being defensively sound, while their opponents could aim to sit back and defend their lead.

Since 2022, Riga have picked up five home wins by a single goal. Four of their previous six home matches in Europe have seen them win by a one-goal margin in normal time.

The visitors have a two-goal cushion to protect, so a 1-0 home win, which sends the visitors through on aggregate, is my correct score selection.