Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Prediction: Mbappe & Alvarez to test goalkeepers

What a treat for Spanish Football fans as we have a massive All-Madrid Derby in the Champions League as Real Madrid face their city-rivals Atlético. The first leg will be broadcast live on TNT Sports 1 from 20:00 on Tuesday evening.

Who better to get the assignment for this one than our Madrid-based La Liga Betting Expert? Mark Sochon takes us through the team news and the two sides with his Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid Predictions for us at Betfred Insights...

*You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid meet in the Champions League for the first time in eight years on Tuesday night. Atleti are hoping to finally get the better of their city rivals in Europe, having lost all of the previous five Madrid derby ties in this competition. 

That includes two finals and many heartbreaking moments for fans of Los Rojiblancos. From that Sergio Ramos goal in Lisbon, to penalty despair in Milan, possibly the most successful era in Atlético Madrid's history has still been blighted by the pain of defeat against their city rivals. 

It's a feeling that Atleti fans know well, particularly in this competition, although this is largely a new generation of players on both sides of the Madrid divide, compared to the teams that met in the Champions League in four consecutive seasons between 2014 and 2017. 

Diego Simeone will be hoping his current squad is therefore free from the psychological damage of defeats in each of those four ties. They've competed pretty well against Los Blancos in more recent times, with the last five meetings in all competitions finishing level after 90 minutes. 

Atlético Madrid can also largely claim to be the form team coming into this game. They've only lost one of their last 26 matches in all competitions, and moved above their neighbours with a 1-0 home victory over Athletic Club in La Liga on Saturday. 

Julián Alvarez came off the bench to net the winner in that game, a fifth goal in five matches for the Argentine, a run that started with a goal at the Santiago Bernabéu in a 1-1 draw in La Liga last month. 

The former Man City forward has formed a strong strike partnership with Antoine Griezmann, and this is an Atleti side that can certainly attack as well as defend, as demonstrated only last week when they drew 4-4 at Barcelona in the Copa del Rey. 

It'll be interesting to see just how many risks Simeone is willing to take in the first leg of this tie. His natural instinct would be to keep it tight and keep everything alive for next week's return clash at the Estadio Metropolitano, but selection issues in the home camp certainly serve up a window of opportunity for the visitors on Tuesday night. 

Real Madrid are likely to field a similar lineup to the side that was outplayed at the Benito Villamarín on Saturday, in a 2-1 defeat against an Isco-inspired Real Betis. They dropped points for the fourth time in five league matches in that game, but the home team can at least take confidence from the way they brushed Manchester City aside in the last round of this competition. 

With Kylian Mbappé on top of his game, Los Blancos dominated the English champions scoring three times in both legs, to seal a 6-3 aggregate victory and set up this Madrid derby round-of-16 showdown. 

While they made a slow start to their title defence, Real Madrid have won each of their last five Champions League matches, scoring at least three times in all of them. The City win felt like a turning point in their campaign, with Carlo Ancelotti's shift to something closer to a 4-4-2 system delivering the goods, and certainly getting the best out of their marquee summer signing. 

Madrid have still only kept one clean sheet in the competition so far this season though, so Atleti's forward players should make the trip across town feeling good about their chances of finding a way past Thibaut Courtois at some point in this game. 

Team News: 

Real Madrid have been dealing with a defensive injury crisis for much of the season, with regulars Dani Carvajal and Éder Militão both out long-term, but it's the midfield that may be the area of greatest concern for Ancelotti heading into this match. 

Jude Bellingham picked up his third booking in the Champions League this season in the second leg against City and will be unavailable here as a result. With Dani Ceballos injured, and Fede Valverde also a major doubt, Los Blancos are short on options in the middle of the park, but the attacking trio of Mbappé, Rodrygo and Vinícius are all available. 

As for Atlético Madrid, who secured a top-eight finish in the league phase to bypass the play-off round, their only selection doubts are over César Azpilicueta and Koke. 

Neither of those players would be likely starters even if passed fit though, so Simeone is in a position to field what he sees as his best best lineup for this game. That should see the likes of Alvarez and Marcos Llorente return, after both dropped to the bench on Saturday. 

Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid Odds

Real Madrid are the 10/11 favourites to win the first leg of this tie. You can back the Draw at 13/5, a winning bet on each of the last four meetings at the Bernabéu. Meanwhile, Atlético are priced at 16/5 to win at the home of their city rivals for the first time since 2016. 

You can take your pick in the Total Goals market, with Over 2.5 available at 10/11, while Under 2.5 is also priced at 10/11. Real Madrid are priced at 10/11 to score over 1.5 goals in this game, while you can back Atleti to score over 1.5 goals at 9/4. 

Mbappé is the 7/2 favourite to score first, while you can back the Frenchman to score anytime at 5/4. Vinícius is on offer at 13/8 to get on the scoresheet, while you can back Rodrygo to score anytime at 5/2. 

From a visiting perspective, in-form Alvarez is likely to be the main goal threat. The 25-year-old scored first with a panenka penalty when the clubs met on this ground last month and he's priced at 7/1 to score first again on Tuesday night. You can also back Alvarez to score anytime at 5/2, while Griezmann is on offer at 11/4 to get on the scoresheet. 

There are also several Price Boosts available on this game, including Both teams to score, Each team 4+ corners and Atlético Madrid 40+ booking points which has been boosted to 15/2. 

Bet 1 - Both teams to score @ 4/5 

There was a time when these Madrid derby meetings were notoriously tight, but that hasn't really been the case in recent years.  

All of the last nine clashes between the big two in the Spanish capital have served up goals at each end. With Real Madrid likely to be in a position to field a stronger lineup next week, the away leg could serve up a genuine opportunity for Atleti and they should take at least some risks in this game as they look to exploit the home team's selection problems in midfield and at the back. 

While it's unlikely to be as open as the eight-goal thriller that Los Rojiblancos were involved in last week in Barcelona, I'm backing Both teams to score at 4/5, a winning bet in six of Real Madrid's last eight games in all competitions. 

Bet 2 - Kylian Mbappé 2+ shots on target & Julián Alvarez 1+ shots on target @ 2/1 

This match will feature two of the form strikers in the Spanish top flight, with Mbappé and Alvarez having both opened their Madrid derby accounts when the sides met in February. While they each took a little bit of time to settle in the Spanish capital following high-profile summer moves, both players have really found their feet since the turn of the year. 

Mbappé is looking much more confident up top for Los Blancos, in a system that is perfectly geared to engineer chances for the 26-year-old. He has registered at least two shots on target in eight of his last nine Madrid appearances. 

Alvarez has done likewise in each of his last three outings for Atlético, despite only coming on in the 59th minute at the weekend.  

With both players in such good form, I'm using the Bet Builder to back Kylian Mbappé 2+ shots on target and Julián Alvarez 1+ shots on target at 2/1.

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark's Football Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...