PSV vs Atletico Madrid Prediction: More away day angst for Atleti

Only a point separates Atletico Madrid (12th) and PSV Eindhoven (15th) in the league phase of the 2025/26 Uefa Champions League after five rounds of fixtures, and on Tuesday (20:00 GMT, TNT Sports 5), the two teams meet at the Philips Stadion in Eindhoven, Netherlands.

Below are my PSV vs Atletico Madrid predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds, in the first meeting between the two clubs since November 2016.

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Team News

Ivan Perisic, who opened the scoring from the spot in PSV's last Champions League game, a 4-1 hammering of six-time champions Liverpool at Anfield on November 26, has missed his side's last two games with an injury, but he could return to action on Tuesday, possibly from the substitutes bench.

Alassane Plea and Ruben van Bommel (both knee) remain sidelined, however.

Football Odds

Atletico Madrid are likely to be without four players, Jose Maria Gimenez, Marcos Llorente (both muscle), Alex Baena (hamstring) and Johnny Cardoso (knee), due to injury.

PSV vs Atletico Madrid Odds

PSV have won two of their last three Champions League games, and the reigning Dutch champions are 21/10, or a 32.3% chance, to make it three victories from four against Atletico Madrid, who are 11/10 to triumph in Eindhoven, implying a 47.6% probability of success, with the draw offered at 13/5.

Double Chance & Both Teams To Score - PSV or Draw & Yes @ 13/10

This should be a competitive contest in Eindhoven.

On the one hand, you have PSV, with an inferior starting XI and squad, but playing at home and with real confidence.

Peter Bosz's side are unbeaten in 14 games (W11, D3) across all competitions, winning the last five, since suffering a 3-1 home defeat to Union Saint-Gilloise in their opening match of the league phase on September 16. They've beaten some big names during that run, including Napoli (6-2) and Liverpool (1-4), and in 21 games this season, only Telstar, who beat them 2-0 in the league at the Philips Stadion on August 30, have stopped them from scoring.

Today's Football Fixtures

Atletico, meanwhile, boast world-renowned names such as Jan Oblak and Julian Alvarez, but they've lost their last two matches, and both of their league-phase away contests in the Champions League this term. Admittedly, their two defeats in the competition have come away to Liverpool (3-2) and Arsenal (4-0), two of European football's richest clubs, while their back-to-back defeats in La Liga have come against Barcelona (3-1) and Athletic Club (1-0), who finished first and fourth, respectively, in Spain's top flight last season.

Still, Diego Simeone's side must be suffering from a slight lack of confidence, even if a seven-game win streak preceded those two defeats to kick off December.

It's tempting to back PSV to win at 21/10 here, but I'm opting for the insurance of a Draw, alongside Both Teams To Score, a selection which has landed in the Dutch side's last four Champions League games (BTTS-Yes alone has landed in all five this season).

Anytime Goalscorer - Guus Til (PSV) @ 11/5

Atletico forward Julian Alvarez (23/20) is the obvious candidate to back in the Anytime Goalscorer market, but PSV's Guus Til (11/5) is the one providing the most value, in my opinion.

The 27-year-old scored 13, 10 and 13 goals, respectively, in his first three seasons with the Eindhoven club, but he's proven to be even more prolific this term, netting 11 in 21 appearances so far.

Til hasn't been quite as productive in the Champions League, notching just once in five games (four starts), but that sole strike did come in his side's last European outing, that big win at Anfield, and is one of six he has scored in the last five across all competitions.

With Atletico conceding four times across their last couple of games, Til will back himself to breach their back line on Tuesday, and at 11/5, I'm happy to lean in his direction.