Pafos vs Monaco Prediction: Goals at a premium in Cyprus

Pafos and AS Monaco, level on five points in the league phase of the 2025/26 Uefa Champions League, meet at Alphamega Stadium in Cyprus on Wednesday (17:45 GMT, TNT Sports 4).

Below are my Pafos vs Monaco predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

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Team News

Joao Correia, who was sent off for Pafos in their goalless draw with Kairat in Kazakhstan on October 21, is still suspended and will miss out on Wednesday's game.

Pedrao (knee) is injured for the Cypriot champions, but there is some hope that former Watford winger Ken Sema, who missed his side's 2-1 league win against Aris Limassol last Friday, will be fit enough to return for the visit of Monaco.

Football Odds

The visitors are missing Eric Dier (calf) and Christian Mawissa (hamstring) due to injury, but ex-Arsenal striker Folarin Balogun is available after serving a domestic suspension in Monaco's 4-1 defeat at Stade Rennais in Ligue 1 last Saturday.

Pafos vs Monaco Odds

Pafos lost their first home match in the league phase to Bayern Munich (1-5), but won last time out in the competition at Alphamega Stadium, beating Villarreal (1-0) on November 5.

Juan Carlos Calcedo's side are 4/1 underdogs for Wednesday's game, though, implying a 20% probability of success, while Monaco are 3/5, or a 62.5% chance, to claim back-to-back away victories in the Champions League after overcoming Bodo/Glimt 1-0 in Norway on November 4.

The draw is priced at 3/1, both teams to score at 8/13, and over 2.5 total goals at 4/7.

Total Goals - Under 2.5 @ 5/4

Monaco head to Cyprus on the back of back-to-back 4-1 defeats in Ligue 1, at home to RC Lens and away to Stade Rennais, but their last two games in Europe have produced a combined total of one goal.

Les Rouge et Blanc were held to a goalless draw at home by Tottenham Hotspur on October 22, and last time out in the competition, they triumphed 1-0 at Norwegian side Bodo/Glimt.

Today's Football Fixtures

It's been a similar tale for Pafos, who followed up a goalless draw at Kairat on October 21 with a 1-0 victory over Villarreal in Cyprus a couple of weeks later. They also drew 0-0 away at Greek giants Olympiakos on matchday one, so under 2.5 goals has been a winning selection in three of their four league phase contests, and eight of their 10 European games this season.

Four of Pafos' last five matches across all competitions have featured two or fewer goals, and it's five from the last eight for Monaco, who have scored just once across three times across their last four.

Bet Builder - Derrick Luckassen (PAF) & Mamadou Coulibaly (MON) Shown Any Card @ 11/2

Pafos defender Derrick Luckassen has received eight yellow cards and one red in 20 appearances this season.

The 30-year-old has been booked in three of his last four games, with his latest caution coming in his side's last Champions League match, the 1-0 victory over Villarreal earlier this month.

The Dutchman picked up 20 yellows and one red last season for Pafos, so he's certainly no stranger to a card.

I'm combining a card for Luckassen with one for Monaco midfielder Mamadou Coulibaly, who has earned five yellows in 14 appearances this term.

The 21-year-old has been booked four times in 10 Ligue 1 games, and once in four Champions League contests.

Coulibaly is averaging 1.2 fouls per game in Europe and 1.5 fouls per game in the French top flight.