Newcastle vs Benfica Prediction: Mourinho to guide Benfica to at least a point

Newcastle host Benfica in the third game of the Champions League 2025-26 season, with a kick-off time of 20:00 on Tuesday night, live on TNT Sports.   

Jamie Pacheco talks you through the team news, form and three bets ahead of this one, made up of 5/4, 11/2 and 9/1 shots, as we go through his Newcastle vs Benfica Predictions...

*You can check out all the Football Odds and markets on offer with us over at betfred.com

Match Preview:

Newcastle  

12th place in the league isn't a good start for a good club with an excellent manager and some fine players.  

Yes, of course, the loss of Alexander Isak was likely to cause disruption, a situation not helped by the fact that Yoane Wissa - one of two players brought in to replace the Swede - is yet to make his debut after suffering an injury, 

The other man brought in, Nick Woltemade, has been excellent. He's scored in five matches in a row, including an international fixture for Germany in midweek, with his latest goal at the weekend against Brighton an absolute beauty, flicking it in with a backheel with his back to the goal.  

But Newcastle still lost, and they need to get some wins on the board to regain some confidence.  

That said, they've made a decent start in this competition with an understandable 2-1 home loss to Barcelona, followed by a good 4-0 away win at Union Saint Gilloise.  

The experienced Fabian Schar may return for this one.  

Benfica  

José Mourinho can't have been particularly impressed by the timing of this match. He was without his team for the best part of two weeks while they were all on international duty and then played Chaves on Friday in the Cup, so Mourinho may be feeling his side is going into a crucial Champions League match a little undercooked.  

And it's a match where they need to get something. After the first loss that cost Bruno Lage his job and defeat against Chelsea on Mourinho's watch already, they need points on the board as soon as possible. Yes, the likes of Ajax and Bayer Leverkusen will provide opportunities for wins but Real Madrid, Napoli and Juventus…less so. Lose here and it may just be that they'll have left themselves too much to do as regards making even the Playoffs.  

Match Odds (Double Chance)

Newcastle are 3/5, implied probability of 62.5%, with Benfica 9/2 (18.2%) and the draw 11/4, which is 26.7%.  

They've only ever played twice in official competitions, back in 2012/13, leading to a 1-1 draw in England and a 3-1 win for Benfica in Portugal.  

At the prices, we can make a case for Benfica on the Double Chance market at 5/4.  

Mourinho was in his element as an underdog when they visited Stamford Bridge a few weeks ago. They almost pulled it off in a game where they matched Chelsea for all the key stats. They were also unlucky in that the one goal conceded was an own goal.  

Both Mourinho and Benfica have far more experience of this competition than Howe and Newcastle and that could make a difference too, while Mourinho is unlikely to be playing for 0-0 and has some decent attacking weapons to cause Newcastle problems. If they can keep Woltemade quiet - easier said than done - they'll have every chance of at least a point.  

*You can check out Betfred's full market on this match by visiting our Newcastle vs Benfica Odds page on betfred.com

Anytime Goal scorers  

Under 2.5 goals is the slight favourite here, but I'm not so sure about that, and this may be a more open game than it first seems.  

I wouldn't put anyone off backing that man Woltemade at 13/10 for a goal at any time, given his form, but I'd rather take my chances with two bigger-priced players.  

First, up Bruno Guimaraes, who has two for the season already and got five last season, often saving his goals for the most important matches. Odds of 11/2 are decent for a goal at anytime.  

Much of the above can be said about Benfica's Frederic Aursnes, another who's always picked for the crunch games and has a habit of scoring when it matters most. Like Guimaraes, he has two for the season but is available at a considerably bigger price of 9/1. As we always say, you only need one of these to come in occasionally, so let's hope this is when it does.  

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Jamie Pacheco Football P/L 2025 (Excludes 3-3-3 column):  

• Points Staked: 10.5  
• Points Returned: 11.515 
• Current P/L: +1.015