Midtjylland vs Fenerbahce Prediction: Under 2.5 goals specialists to strike again

The league phase of the 2024/25 Uefa Europa League campaign comes to a close on Thursday evening with 18 games being played simultaneously. One of the 18 comes from the MCH Arena in Herning, Denmark, where FC Midtjylland host Fenerbahce SK (20:00, TNT Sports 8) in a battle for a knockout phase play-off place. The Danish side are currently 19th, one point and four places above the Turkish giants, but neither is guaranteed to finish in the top 24 unless they win this week.

Below is my Midtjylland vs Fenerbahce prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Midtjylland's number one goalkeeper Elias Rafn Olafsson missed last Thursday's 2-0 victory over Ludogorets in Bulgaria with an arm injury and the 24-year-old will sit out again in midweek, leaving former Huddersfield Town shot-stopper Jonas Lossl to deputise in his absence.

The Wolves are also likely to be without Kristoffer Olsson (illness), Franculino Dju (unspecified) and Cho Gue-sung (knee) for the visit of Fenerbahce.

Chile international Dario Osorio returned from injury last week to open the scoring in Razgrad and he will be one of Midtjylland's key players on Thursday alongside Polish centre-forward Adam Buska and Turkish winger Aral Simsir.

Football Odds

Fenerbahce completed the signing of Anderson Talisca from Saudi Arabian side Al-Nassr earlier this week but the Brazilian attacker isn't eligible to make his Yellow Canaries debut in the Europa League.

Talisca's compatriot, 31-year-old defender Diego Carlos, made his debut for the club in Sunday's 3-2 Super Lig win over Goztepe following his recent move from Aston Villa, but he is also unable to be selected in the league phase.

Jose Mourinho's numbers are further depleted by the one-match suspensions being served by Sofyan Amrabat and Bright Osayi-Samuel for an accumulation of yellow cards in the competition, while Mert Muldur (shoulder), Jayden Oosterwolde, Rodrigo Becao (both knee), Ismail Yuksek (muscle) and first-choice goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic (thigh) are all out injured.

With central midfielders Amrabat and Fred both dropping out of the starting XI, we could see a rare start for Mert Yandas on Thursday, while Allan Saint-Maximin and Filip Kostic are also vying to get the nod from the beginning in Denmark after coming on at the start of the second half against Goztepe.

Midtjylland vs Fenerbahce Odds

Midtjylland recovered from three straight Europa League losses to beat Ludogorets last week and the Danish side are 5/2 to record back-to-back wins in the competition for the first time since October, implying a 28.6% probability of success. Fenerbahce, meanwhile, are winless in their last two league phase games, failing to score in a 2-0 defeat to Athletic Club and a goalless draw with Lyon, yet they are 1/1 favourites here.

The visitors have drawn three of their first seven league phase matches and are 11/4 to make it four in eight on Thursday, a result which would put their participation in the knockout phase play-offs in serious jeopardy.

Fenerbahce centre-forwards Youssef En-Nesyri (13/10) and Edin Dzeko (6/4), who are expected to start alongside each other in attack, head the anytime goalscorer market, with Buksa (2/1) first up for the hosts.

Total Goals - Under 2.5 @ 6/4

Six of Midtjylland's seven league-phase games have gone under 2.5 goals and 16 (55.2 per cent) of their 29 matches across all competitions this season have seen two or fewer strikes, and with a point highly likely to keep them in the top 24 and secure their spot in the knockout phase play-offs, Thursday's hosts may well look to keep things tight again here.

Four of Fenerbahce's league-phase contests, including their last two, have gone under 2.5 goals, while their two competition wins were both 1-1 draws until the 85th minute or later.

A defeat could be disastrous for Fener but Mourinho will be aware that a draw may well be enough for his side to end the night in the top 24, so I can see the legendary Portuguese boss deploying some risk-averse tactics unless results elsewhere go against them.

Whoever goes ahead in this game - if a goal is found at all - you can bet they will sit in and be happy to leave all the attacking to the other side, as long as they keep their own net safe.

As a result, I see this being a cagey, low-scoring contest in Herning, so back under 2.5 total goals at 6/4.

Bet Builder - Midtjylland Over 3.5 Corners, Ousmane Diao (MID) 1+ Shots, Fred (FEN) 1+ Shots @ 3/1

Midtjylland are 22nd out of 36 teams in the 'corners taken' table having won 38 across their first seven league phase contests, averaging 5.4 per game. At home, the Wolves have won 22 corners - 10 v Hoffenheim, six v USG, and six v Eintracht Frankfurt - averaging 7.3 per game.

Fener, meanwhile, have conceded 32 league-phase corners, averaging 4.6 per game, and it only drops down to 4.3 per game when just counting away trips.

Four corners, therefore, feel achievable for Midtjylland on Thursday, and should they reach that number, there's a decent chance that 20-year-old defender Ousmane Diao could be on the end of one.

The Senegalese centre-back scored the only goal of the game in October as his side beat USG 1-0 at home, and his left-footed strike came about from a corner kick.

Diao is averaging 0.9 shots per game in the competition and he has tried his luck at least once in four of his last five league-phase appearances, shooting twice last time out against Ludogorets. He's also averaging 0.8 shots per game in the Danish Superliga, highlighting just how dangerous he is proving at set-pieces across different competitions, and he will back himself to get on the end of at least one delivery into the box on Thursday.

The third and final selection of this Bet Builder centres around Fener midfielder Fred, formerly a much-maligned figure in the Premier League for Manchester United. Fred has made himself an integral part of Fener's midfield over the last one-and-a-half seasons and all six of his Europa League appearances this season have been as a starter.

The 31-year-old hasn't scored in the league phase but is averaging 0.8 shots per game in the competition, recording at least one in his last four European games including two last time out against Lyon.

Fred has been in decent goalscoring form in Turkey, netting four times in 17 Super Lig outings (15 starts) this term, and his shots-per-game average in the Turkish top flight is 1.4, so with Fener potentially needing to win on Thursday, don't be surprised to see him let fly from distance in Denmark.

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