Manchester City vs Real Madrid Prediction: Lots of Yellow at the Etihad

Manchester City will need to buck their ideas up if they are to overturn a three-goal deficit from the first leg in Tuesday night's Round of 16 Champions League tie. Amazon Prime Video have selected this game as their offering for UK viewers with kick-off scheduled for 20:00.

Our Madrid-based Spanish football expert got the assignment for this one and does he think his local team will hold on? Let's check out his Manchester City vs Real Madrid Predictions here on Betfred Insights...

*You can check out all the Football Odds and markets on offer with us over at betfred.com

Real Madrid are firmly in pole position heading into the second leg of their Champions League round-of-16 tie against Manchester City. Pep Guardiola's side have it all to do if they're to avoid exiting the competition against the Spanish club for the fourth time in five seasons. 

While both can point to previous years in which they've been stronger, City were the clear favourites heading into this tie against an injury-ravaged and largely under-performing Real Madrid. However, the first leg did not live up to that script by any means. 

Los Blancos rose to the occasion, as they so often do at the Santiago Bernabéu on a big European night. Fede Valverde, one of the primary targets for the Madrid boo boys earlier this year, scored a sublime first-half hat-trick as the home team breached City's defensive line again and again. 

In comfortably the best performance of Álvaro Arbeloa's brief reign to date, Real Madrid's margin of victory could have been even greater than 3-0, with Vinícius Júnior missing a second-half penalty. 

There were only three changes to that lineup at the weekend as the Spanish giants returned to domestic action with a 4-1 home victory over struggling Elche. However, the second half saw a host of youngsters feature, with Arbeloa giving opportunities to academy products Daniel Yáñez, Diego Aguado, Manuel Ángel and César Palacios. 

18-year-old Yáñez produced a moment of real quality to set up Dean Huijsen for the third goal. However, the best was yet to come, with Arda Güler scoring a screamer from deep inside his own half to complete the rout. 

In the space of one week, the outlook of what was shaping up to be a pretty miserable season for Real Madrid has changed for the better. Meanwhile, over in Manchester, the last seven days have seen City's hopes in the two big competitions take significant, potentially terminal blows. 

Their impressive 3-1 FA Cup victory with a much-rotated team at Newcastle the weekend before last must already seem like an eternity ago. Having fallen flat on the big stage at the Bernabéu yet again, they dropped points in the Premier League, with a 1-1 draw at West Ham on Saturday. 

Man City only faced one shot in the entire 90 minutes, but Konstantinos Mavropanos' equaliser and the visiting team's subsequent failure to find a winner leaves Arsenal in total control of the title race. 

They'll need to banish all thoughts of that to focus on putting the Real Madrid goal under as much pressure as possible on Tuesday night. Guardiola gave his players an extra day off on Monday, and he'll be hoping his squad returns refreshed and ready to attack from the first whistle. 

The Citizens could really do with the best version of Erling Haaland turning up for this game. The Norwegian goal machine has been strangely out of sorts of late, scoring just four times in his last 18 appearances. 

Team News: 

The hosts are missing Joško Gvardiol due to an injury once more. Mateo Kovačić and Rico Lewis have recently returned to training and could feature. 

Savinho and Jérémy Doku both started in Madrid, but the likes of Rayan Cherki, Omar Marmoush and Tijjani Reijnders will be hoping to break into the lineup for the second leg. 

Real Madrid have named both Jude Bellingham and Kylian Mbappé in their squad following recent injuries. Bellingham hasn't played since the first day of February, which strongly suggests he won't be a starter. There's a slightly greater chance of Arbeloa throwing Mbappé straight back in after a shorter lay-off, although the visiting boss may still stick with the players that delivered the goods last week where possible. 

Left-back Álvaro Carreras has also returned to the squad, and could feature given Ferland Mendy is out injured. Éder Militão, Rodrygo, Dani Ceballos and Raúl Asencio are also still sidelined. 

Match Odds: 

Manchester City are the 4/7 favourites to win on the night. You can back the Draw at 4/1, while Real Madrid are priced at 7/2. 

If you fancy City to pull off what would be an extraordinary comeback, they are available at 7/2 to win the tie. You can also back the home team with a -2.00 Handicap at 3/1, while they're given a 5/2 chance of winning both halves. 

Alternatively, you can back Real Madrid and Both teams to score at 6/1. The visitors are given a 2/1 chance of scoring over 1.5 goals, while they're on offer at 13/8 to suck all the life out of their opponents by netting the first goal. 

Haaland is the 12/5 favourite to score first, while the City frontman is available at 4/7 to score anytime. Alternative options in the Anytime Goalscorer market from a home perspective include Antoine Semenyo at 19/20 and Doku at 3/1. 

You can back Valverde, who has scored five times in his last three appearances, to strike at anytime at 11/2 for Real Madrid. Meanwhile, Vinícius is given a 21/10 chance of getting on the scoresheet. 

*You can bet on the match and check out all of our Betting Markets on the Manchester City vs Real Madrid Odds page on betfred.com

Bet 1 - Over 37.5 Booking Points @ 8/11

The first leg was not a particularly dirty affair, but Man City are unlikely to go down without a fight in what is the fifth meeting between the clubs since the start of last year. They'll need to pile on the pressure and take risks, which could leave them vulnerable to counterattacks. That will also increase the chances of home players needing to make tactical fouls in a bid to stop those breaks. 

Real Madrid may also resort to a slightly more physical approach than we saw in the first leg. They no longer have a midfield of elegant footballers such as Toni Kroos and Luka Modrić, and they'll be keen to use their physicality to prevent City's ball-playing stars from getting into their rhythm. 

The likes of Antonio Rüdiger and Vinícius are also not ones to shy away from the confrontational side of the game, so I can see the card count rising and I'm backing Over 37.5 Booking Points at 8/11.

Bet 2 - Second half - Both teams to score @ 15/8 

Real Madrid conceded four goals on the road in the Champions League against Benfica as recently as January, while they let in three at Olympiacos in November. They were all at sea defensively in those games, and while that was not the case in the first leg, there are enough cracks in the visiting backline to suggest this tie is not entirely dead. 

Man City have scored at least twice in all of their last eight home fixtures. However, they could become very vulnerable on the break in the second half as they continue to chase goals, particularly if Mbappé is deployed off the bench. 

Given that, I'm backing Both teams to score in the second half at 15/8. 

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