Lille vs Sturm Graz Prediction: Les Douges to boost top-eight hopes

Three wins and a draw from their first five games have put Lille OSC on course to qualify from the league phase of the Uefa Champions League with a play-off spot surely the least they can expect now, although the French side might need a few more points to make absolutely sure.

Their next opponents in the competition, Sturm Graz, are in a much less favourable position having lost four times already, and a defeat for the Austrians at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy on Wednesday (17:45, TNT Sports 4) could be catastrophic for their play-off hopes. Read on for my Lille vs Sturm Graz prediction, complete with team news and match odds.

Team News

Angel Gomes, Samuel Umtiti, Nabil Bentaleb, Ethan Mbappe and Tiago Santos are all still ruled out for Lille, while Thomas Meunier is a doubt after missing last Friday's 3-1 win over Brest. Mitchel Bakker was suspended for that Ligue 1 victory but is available for selection in Europe and could replace Gabriel Gudmundsson at left-back.

Benjamin Andre is walking a disciplinary tightrope as a card on Wednesday would see him miss Lille's trip to Anfield to face Liverpool next month, but the Les Douges skipper is adamant that won't be playing on his mind against Sturm Graz. He said on Tuesday: "There will be no holding back, the Champions League is an intense match. I'm in the duel, I'm going to get some cards. The most important match is tomorrow, Anfield we'll see later."

Football Odds

The visitors still can't call upon injured Brighton & Hove Albion loanee Kjell Scherpen so 20-year-old Daniil Khudyakov, who has deputised for the Dutchman in his side's last three games, will line up between the sticks once again.

Bosnian defender Jusuf Gazibegovic will also have a watching brief on Wednesday on account of the one-match suspension he will serve for an accumulation of yellow cards in the competition.

Meanwhile, Austrian defender Alexandar Borkovic recently returned to training after a lengthy spell on the sidelines due to an ACL injury, but while he's stepping up his recovery, he's unlikely to feature in midweek.

Lille vs Sturm Graz Betting Tips

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Lille have won three of their last four Champions League matches and are 1/2, or a 66.7% chance, to make it four in five - or six overall - on Wednesday. Sturm Graz, on the other hand, have an implied win probability of 15.4% on account of their 11/2 odds.

The draw is priced at 100/30, both teams to score - which has landed in three Lille league phase matches - at 5/6, and over 2.5 total goals at 4/6.

Lille to win, both teams to score, and Canadian marksman Jonathan David to register at least two shots on target has been boosted from 100/30 to 4/1, and David is 8/11 just to score anytime or 5/2 to strike first in Villeneuve d'Ascq.

Max Biereth (3/1) is considered the visitors' most likely anytime goalscorer after netting the only goal of the game in their 1-0 victory over Girona last time out in the competition.

Match Result & Total Goals Over/Under 3.5 - Lille & Under 3.5 Goals @ 6/5

Backing Lille to win to nil (7/5) or Lille to win and under 2.5 total goals (13/5) both came into my thinking for this first tip as 60 per cent (three) of their five league phase matches have finished with two or fewer goals with one of those, a 1-0 victory over Real Madrid on October 2, also seeing the French side collect a clean sheet alongside a win.

Sturm Graz, meanwhile, have seen 80 per cent (four) of their league phase games end with under 2.5 total goals, all of which have come since the start of match week two. The Austrian outfit also lost the first three of those to nil against Club Brugge (0-1), Sporting (0-2) and Borussia Dortmund (1-0), so the aforementioned two selections are worthy of consideration ahead of Wednesday's meeting between Lille and Sturm Graz.

I'm opting to play things slightly safer by picking Lille to win and under 3.5 total goals, a selection that has landed twice for Lille in this season's Champions League, while four of their five matches have finished with three or fewer goals - the 3-1 triumph at Atletico Madrid on October 23 proving to be the outlier so far.

All five of Sturm Graz's games in the league phase have finished with three or fewer goals, and backing Die Schwoazn to lose and under 3.5 total goals was a winner in their first four matches before they snapped out of their losing streak with a 1-0 victory over Girona last time out in the competition.

That triumph did come on home soil, however, and although their only goal away from Austria did come in France, away to Brest (2-1) on September 19, it was actually scored by a Brest player - Edimilson Fernandes, who put through his own net.

It will be difficult for the visitors to breach a Lille defence that shut out the likes of Vinicius Jr., Kylian Mbappe and Jude Bellingham at the Stade Pierre Mauroy just a couple of months ago, while Juventus only equalised in their 1-1 draw there via a spot-kick from Dusan Vlahovic.

Lille's only clean sheet in the competition remains that one against Real Madrid, though, and they've conceded at least once in six of their last seven games across all competitions, while Sturm Graz have scored in eight of their last nine including their most recent Champions League outing against Girona.

Back Lille to win to nil or the northern French side to win with under 2.5 total goals if you're feeling more adventurous, but if you're hedging yours bets a little, a home victory and under 3.5 total goals might be the way to go at 6/5.

Bet Builder - Jonathan David (LIL) Anytime Goalscorer, Benjamin Andre (LIL) 2+ Fouls, Otar Kiteishvili (SGA) 2+ Fouls @ 5/1

Kicking off this three-legged Bet Builder is Lille number nine David, who has scored four goals in his first five league phase appearances (four starts) this season. The Canada international struck the winner against Real Madrid, bagged a brace against Atletico Madrid, and then found the net against Juventus, highlighting his big-game credentials.

The 24-year-old was denied by Bologna last time out in Europe but has scored a brace in his last two matches against Montpellier and Brest, and has struck at least once in 11 of his last 17 games for club and country.

We then come onto player fouls, starting with Lille's Andre who, as mentioned previously, has rejected any notion that he will approach this contest differently despite being at risk of a one-game ban which would deny him the chance to play at Anfield next month.

The 34-year-old Frenchman is a combative midfielder who is often tasked with putting out fires in midfield and that much is evident in the 1.8 fouls per game he is averaging in the league phase of the Champions League, while he is also averaging 1.7 fouls per game in Ligue 1 this season.

Andre didn't commit a foul last time out in Italy against Bologna, nor did he give a free-kick or penalty away at Atletico, but he made four fouls at home against Juventus, two against Real Madrid, and three away at Sporting, so I'm backing him to be whistled a couple of time at least by the referee on Wednesday.

Last up is two fouls for Sturm Graz midfielder Otar Kiteishvili who, like Andre, is averaging 1.8 fouls per game in this season's Champions League. The Georgia international committed three fouls v Brest, one v Borussia Dortmund, and three v Girona, only keeping himself clean at home against Club Brugge.

With the likes of Edon Zhegrova and Remy Cabella in the home side's ranks on Wednesday, the 28-year-old and his teammates will have a tough job on their hands to prevent balls being played into David, and Kiteishvili may have to take alternative action to stop the opposition.

Offers

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