Lille vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction: Les Dogues to grab the win

Lille welcome Borussia Dortmund to Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy for the second leg of their Uefa Champions League round of 16 tie on Wednesday (17:45, TNT Sports 4). The sides played out a 1-1 draw in Germany last Tuesday, with Les Dogues equalising in the second half. 

The French side will be fancying their chances to progress to the quarter-finals on home turf, but last year's finalists will throw everything they've got into this game. Read on for my Lille vs Borussia Dortmund predictions, including the latest match odds and team news.

Lille vs Borussia Dortmund Odds

Lille have won three of their four home games in the Champions League this season and they are 7/4 (which has an implied probability of 36.4%) to prevail in regulation time.

Dortmund's last two outings in this competition have ended in a draw. The stalemate can be backed at 12/5 (29.4%). The Black and Yellows have been the victors in three of their five away trips in Europe this term, and they are 8/5 to come out on top in 90 minutes on Wednesday.

Under 2.5 goals has been a winning selection in two of Lille's four home appearances in the UCL this campaign, and is on offer at 10/11 this time around.

Football Odds

Team News

Lille are without the services of Samuel Umtiti (calf), Tiago Santos (ACL) and Edon Zhegrova (groin) due to injury, while Osame Sahraoui is a doubt to feature having missed the past four matches with a hip issue.

Les Dogues have additional fitness concerns in Mitchel Bakker, who was forced off at half-time against Montpellier on Saturday with a tendon issue, and Gabriel Gudmundsson, who missed the game due to illness.

Midfielder Nabil Bentaleb recently returned to action following a heart attack but he was not back in time to be registered for the hosts' European squad. Boss Bruno Genesio could be tempted to name the same XI that faced Dortmund over a week ago, but he may be tempted to tweak the system into a 4-2-3-1.

Felix Nmecha (knee) and Filippo Mane (muscle) remain sidelined for the visitors, and they have been joined in the medical bay by Daniel Svensson, who picked up a knee injury of his own against Lille last week.

Chelsea loanee Carney Chukwuemeka is a doubt because of a thigh issue, and he has only been limited to cameo appearances in recent weeks.

The Black and Yellows boast the competition's leading marksman in Serhou Guirassy, who has scored 10 times already this season. He is set to lead the line against his old club.

Lille to win (in 90 mins) @ 7/4

Lille responded brilliantly after going a goal behind in Dortmund and fully merited their equaliser at Signal Iduna Park. They are now in the driving seat for this tie, simply because their home form has been great in the Champions League.

They've already taken down defending champions Real Madrid in Villeneuve-d'Ascq this term, while Feyenoord were thrashed here in their final match of the league phase.

Dortmund started their play-off tie with a resounding 3-0 win at Sporting CP but they are coming up against a side who are yet to be beaten on their own patch in Europe. And across all competitions, Les Dogues have only been beaten twice at home (in regulation time).

This is going to be a tough fixture for Dortmund, and I think Lille will rise to the occasion to book their place in the last-eight.

Jonathan David anytime goalscorer @ 6/4

Lille may be resigned to losing Jonathan David on a free transfer in the summer, which looks set to be one of the stories to follow when the transfer window opens, but he is still giving his all for them in what looks to be his final season.

The Canadian has been a regular source of goals for Lille and he has bagged 22 already in 2024/25 across all competitions. Six of them have come in the Champions League, of which half of them have been scored on home soil.

The striker will want to do as much for Lille as possible in the final months of the season, and this is the kind of game built for him to flaunt his talent. I think 6/4 offers good value on him to score on Wednesday evening.

Offers

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