Inter Milan vs Bayern Munich Prediction: Milan misery for Kane and Kompany

Bayern Munich lost the home leg of their Uefa Champions League quarter-final tie to Inter Milan (1-2) last Tuesday, and the Bavarians have it all to do in Wednesday's return fixture at San Siro (20:00, TNT Sports 2).

Below are my Inter Milan vs Bayern Munich predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Simone Inzaghi made six changes to his starting XI for Saturday's 3-1 win against Cagliari in Serie A. Yann Bisseck, Stefan de Vrij, Nicola Zalewski, Davide Frattesi, Federico Dimarco and Marko Arnautovic all came into the side, replacing Benjamin Pavard, Francesco Acerbi, Alessandro Bastoni, Matteo Darmian, Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Marcus Thuram.

The Italian tactician could revert to the line-up that began last week's first leg in Munich. However, Frattesi will be hopeful that his winner off the bench at the Allianz Arena is enough to see him start ahead of Mkhitaryan.

Football Odds

Denzel Dumfries (thigh) and Piotr Zielinski (calf) missed that victory in Germany and remain sidelined for the visit of Bayern to Milan.

Mehdi Taremi (muscle) and Kristjan Asllani (suspension) were also absent in the first leg but are available to feature on Wednesday.

Bayern are again missing several key first-teamers. Manuel Neuer (calf), Hiroki Ito (foot), Dayot Upamecano, Alphonso Davies (both knee) and Jamal Musiala (muscle) are all sidelined for Vincent Kompany's side.

However, Kingsley Coman (thigh) and Aleksandar Pavlovic (illness), who were absent last Tuesday, made their returns to the team in Saturday's Der Klassiker with Borussia Dortmund, both coming off the bench in a 2-2 draw at the Allianz.

Kompany made one change to his starting XI on the weekend, bringing in Thomas Muller for Raphael Guerreiro, who scored against his old club just 11 minutes after being introduced.

Inter Milan vs Bayern Munich Odds

Inter have won their five previous European home matches this season and are 13/8, or a 38.1% chance, to keep up their 100% record on Wednesday. Bayern, meanwhile, are 6/4 (40%) to claim the victory they need to at least take the tie to extra time, and 9/4 to win the tie by any means.

The draw, which would be enough to send I Nerazzurri to the semi-finals, is priced at 11/4, and both teams to score at 8/13.

Bayern striker Harry Kane missed a golden chance in the first leg and fired another blank on Saturday but is the 13/10 favourite in the anytime goalscorer market for Wednesday's match in Milan. Inter skipper Lautaro Martinez, who put his side in front at the Allianz, is first up for the hosts at 7/4.

Half-time/Full-time - Draw/Inter Milan @ 11/2

Last week's first leg in Bavaria appeared to be heading to the interval goalless before Martinez popped up in the 38th minute to fire Inter ahead. It was I Nerazzurri's only shot on target of the half, compared to four for Bayern, who also posted the higher xG.

Bayern are expected to be the team applying the most pressure again in the early stages on Wednesday, but for different reasons, as they are behind in the tie and need to win by a one-goal margin just to take it to extra time.

Inter might be expected to show a bit more ambition on home soil, but given the game state, there's no real onus on Inzaghi's side to open up and take any major risks. Instead, they will be clever, looking to keep possession and catch out Bayern whenever possibilities arise.

They will, of course, look to be compact in defence, and given they are yet to concede an open-play goal at home in this season's Champions League, getting past their back line will present a real challenge for the visitors.

I see a fairly low-key first half before Bayern really ramp up the pressure in the second period to try and get back on level terms in this tie. At some point, Kompany and his charges will have to chuck the kitchen sink, and when they do, the likes of Thuram and Martinez will look to pounce at the other end.

Inter have won their last nine games at San Siro, and despite the game state, 13/8 for a home victory offers real value on Wednesday. Keeping in mind my prediction on how the first half will unfold, though, I'm backing Draw/Inter Milan on the Half-time/Full-time market, which offers odds of 11/2.

Correct Score - Inter Milan 1-0 @ 9/1

Here's a bigger and braver selection.

Three goals were scored in the first leg, with Martinez and Frattesi netting for Inter either side of a strike from Muller. The consequence of that result is that Bayern now need to win on Wednesday, while Inter would be happy with a draw to take them through to the final four of this season's Champions League.

You can see, then, why backing an Inter 1-0 win produces such high odds. I Nerazzurri don't need to claim victory on the night, and all the onus is on Bayern.

It was a common scoreline for Inter in the league phase of this competition, though, with five of their eight games seeing just a single goal scored - four in their favour.

Inzaghi's side have also won two of their three knockout phase games by a single goal, although they did concede in both, triumphing 2-1 against Feyenoord and Bayern.

My first tip suggested a tight first half on Wednesday and hinted at a goalless game going into half-time before Inter took advantage of Bayern's desperation and won the game in the second period.

A 1-0 win for Inter, therefore, is a solid bet at 9/1, in my opinion. The Italian giants have only conceded once at home in Europe this season, and Bayern may find it impossible to penetrate their back line in Milan.

Offers

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