Ferencvaros vs The New Saints Prediction: Hungarians to hammer Welsh champions

The New Saints began their 2024/25 Champions League campaign earlier this month with a 4-2 aggregate victory over Montenegrin outfit Decic in the first qualifying round. The Welsh side's reward for that triumph is a second qualifying round tie with Hungarian giants Ferencvaros, the first leg of which takes place at the Groupama Arena in Budapest on Tuesday (19:00).

Read below for my Ferencvaros vs The New Saints prediction and all the latest team news and match odds.

Football Odds

Team News

Ferencvaros will be without last season's OTP Bank Liga top scorer Barnabas Varga after the 29-year-old suffered a facial injury in Hungary's final Euro 2024 group game against Scotland last month.

However, goalkeeper Adam Varga and right-back Endre Botka, both on international duty in Germany with Hungary, are available for selection after playing a part in pre-season.

Among the summer arrivals at Ferencvaros were Brazilian playmaker Kady Borges and Belgian midfielder Philippe Rommens, with both signing for seven-figure fees, and the duo are in contention for their competitive debuts on Tuesday.

Former Aston Villa striker Brad Young helped fire TNS to the Cymru Premier title last season with 22 goals, three more than his nearest rival Jordan Davies (Connah's Quay), and he was the hero for the Welsh side in the first qualifying round after netting twice in the home leg and once in Podgorica.

Ferencvaros vs The New Saints Odds

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After reaching the 2023/24 Europa Conference League knockout round play-offs last year, it's no surprise to see Ferencvaros made huge favourites to triumph at home here. The Hungarians are priced at 1/6, giving them an implied win probability of 85.7% compared to 7.7% for The New Saints, who are given odds of 12/1.

The draw can be backed at 5/1, both teams to score at 5/4, and over 2.5 goals at 8/15.

Ferencvaros to win to nil @ 8/11

Ferencvaros stormed to a sixth straight OTP Bank Liga title last season, finishing 16 points ahead of second-placed Paks and going unbeaten at home in the league from November 13 onwards.

They suffered a disappointing exit in the first qualifying round of the Champions League last year, losing 3-0 at home to Faroese side KI after being held to a goalless draw in Klaksvik.

However, they stormed through the qualifying rounds of the Europa Conference League, beating Shamrock Rovers (6-0), Hamrun Spartans (8-2) and Zalgiris (7-0) over two legs.

They won all six of those games, only conceding to Hamrun Spartans (home and away), and went unbeaten at home in the group stage of the competition, beating Cukaricki (3-1) and drawing with Genk and Fiorentina (both 1-1).

The Hungarians only exited the Europa Conference League to eventual runners-up Olympiakos in the knockout round play-offs, losing 1-0 home and away. This shows their pedigree in European competition, while TNS lost 5-1 on aggregate in the Champions League first qualifying round last year before going out 4-3 to Swift Hesperange in the Europa Conference League second qualifying round.

Ferencvaros only conceded 10 times in 17 league matches at the Groupama Arena last season, so they are well-versed in keeping clean sheets at home. TNS managed to strike once in Montenegro last week, but that goal came via the penalty spot.

The argument may be that they did not need to go all out to score given the 3-0 lead they took from Wales, but regardless, Ferencvaros represent a big step up in opposition, and I think the visitors will be up against it to find a goal in Budapest.

Ferencvaros -2 handicap @ 7/5

I'm also leaning towards a heavy win for the hosts on Tuesday.

For the above selection to land, we need Ferencvaros to win by at least three goals, something they did twice at home in the qualifying rounds last year.

Given their home record last season, I think Ferencvaros will be eyeing up a big victory at the Groupama Arena, so as not to leave anything to chance in Wales.

They held West Ham United to a 2-2 draw last week and should take great confidence from that, despite it only being a friendly. There were some top players in the opposition's line-up, including Mohammed Kudus, James Ward-Prowse and Emerson, who all played 45 minutes, and the Hungarians more than held their own.

With several international players in the squad, Ferencvaros have it within themselves to put TNS to the sword in Budapest.

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