Club Brugge vs Aston Villa Prediction: History to repeat itself?

Aston Villa are in a Champions League quarter-final. What a sentence that is to write. In fact, they haven’t reached this stage of this competition since 1982/83, the year after they were crowned kings of Europe on that famous night in Rotterdam. 

Unai Emery’s men are writing their own history this season however, as they face Club Brugge at 17:45 on TNT Sports 1. They’ve already played them at the Jan Breydel Stadium in this season’s competition, losing 1-0 in the group phase, but below you can find my Club Brugge vs Aston Villa prediction.

Team News

Club Brugge are sweating on the fitness of key midfielder Raphael Onyedika who has picked up a muscle issue and missed Saturday’s game against Gent. He would be a big loss if he misses out, but his midfield partner and captain Hans Vanaken will be looking forward to this tie, having scored the winner from the penalty spot when the teams last met.

He’s played every minute so far in this competition and will start again, while Chemsdine Talbi and Ferran Jutgla should lead the attack. Former Norwich City man Christos Tzolis is also one to watch on the left wing, as Nicky Hayen hopes his side can secure an advantage to take to England.

Football Odds

Emery will be glad to have welcomed back Emiliano Martinez to the first team after his slight injury, and his save percentage of 85 per cent has been massive in Villa’s progression so far. There’s also excitement around the January arrivals Marco Asensio and Marcus Rashford, both of whom could feature here having started against Cardiff City on Friday night. 

Asensio scored twice in that one and the PSG loanee now has four goals in his last three appearances for Villa. Ollie Watkins will lead the line, while the return of Boubacar Kamara to the matchday squad in that FA Cup tie gives Emery another option. Tyrone Mings, Matty Cash, Pau Torres, Amadou Onana and Ross Barkley are all out, while Donyell Malen and Andres Garcia are ineligible.

Club Brugge vs Aston Villa Odds

Club Brugge are priced at 2/1 to win this game at home, which seems fair given they finished 24th in the group phase. They’ve beaten Villa at home already, and the Premier League side are 7/5 to get their revenge here, giving them a 41% implied chance of winning according to the odds. A draw is 5/2 if you fancy the sides to head back to Villa Park all square. 

Over 2.5 goals is available at 1/1, BTTS is 8/11 and Watkins is unsurprisingly the favourite to open the scoring at 5/1. 

Double Chance: Club Brugge or Draw @ 4/7

Now Villa are the favourites here and I can see why, but I don’t think it’s going to be easy for them. I do think Emery’s men will make it through to the quarter-finals, but I think it will take a rousing second leg at Villa Park to get the job done. Asensio and Rashford offer alternative options, but they are facing a side that are excellent at home, especially in this competition. 

Club Brugge’s home record reads W3 D1 L1 in the UCL so far this term and against the odds, they dumped out Atalanta in the playoff round with a thumping 3-1 home success. They’ve also seen off Sporting CP and Aston Villa already of course in this season’s competition, so they will fancy their chances. Finishing 24th in the group phase may not tell the story of just how strong they can be at home. I’ll back Double Chance: Club Brugge or Draw at 4/7.

Under 2.5 goals @ 4/5

I just don’t think the first leg of this tie will feature many goals so I’m happy to back under 2.5 in what I believe will be a tense affair. The 1-0 fixture in November could be a sign of things to come, and I just think both teams will be very wary of losing the tie in this first 90 minutes. Ultimately, a draw isn’t the end of the world for either outfit, and it’s a result that Villa would probably be happy to take home. 

I think all of the focus will be on defensive structure and even though there is a decent amount of attacking quality on the pitch, I don’t think they will be given full licence to roam. We rarely see high-scoring first leg ties, and I can’t see that changing here so let’s err on the side of caution with under 2.5 goals.

Offers

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