Brest vs Sturm Graz Prediction: Del Castillo to give Les Pirates something to treasure

Brest will make their Uefa Champions League debut on Thursday (20:00, TNT Sports 5) when they face Austrian outfit Sturm Graz at the Stade de Roudourou in Guingamp. The match is being played away from the French side's Stade Francis-Le Ble home as it is considered too outdated to meet Uefa's strict stadium requirements.

Read below for my Brest vs Sturm Graz prediction where, after successfully tipping a 9/1 anytime scorer and 18/5 player card in Tuesday's clash between Milan and Liverpool - which would have returned £460 as a double from a £10 stake - I have returned to the same markets, with the two selections below coming to over 9/1 when paired together.

Team News

Ex-Norwich City midfielder Pierre Lees-Melou was one of the standout performers in Ligue 1 last season as he helped Brest to a third-place finish, but the 31-year-old hasn't featured since fracturing his fibula in May, an injury that cost him a place at Euro 2024 with France and keeps him out of his club side's Champions League debut.

Defender Bradley Locko is also yet to play this season, with his last appearance coming for France at the Paris 2024 Olympics, and the 22-year-old remains sidelined with an Achilles issue.

A couple of former Premier League left-backs, Massadio Haidara (ex-Newcastle United) and Jordan Amavi (ex-Aston Villa), are battling it out to start at the Stade de Roudourou, with Haidara making his debut in Saturday's 3-1 defeat at Paris Saint-Germain, where he played the duration of the game.

Mali international Kamory Doumbia, who scored six times in Ligue 1 last season, including a seven-minute hat-trick against Lorient last December, played his first minutes of the new campaign at the weekend and could be in contention to start in midfield on Thursday.

Football Odds

Sturm Graz defender Alexandar Borkovic suffered an ACL injury in 2023/24 which has kept him out of action for the entire calendar year, so he will be missing again this week.

Other than Borkovic, head coach Christian Ilzer appears to have a full complement available to him, with Die Schwoazn last in competitive action on August 31, when they beat Tirol 4-2 in the Austrian Bundesliga.

Danish forward Mika Biereth, who spent the second half of last season on loan from Arsenal before making the move permanent during the summer, is a player Brest will have to watch out for closely on Thursday, with the 21-year-old scoring in three of his first five league games this term.

Other notable names, particularly to a UK audience, include Scottish right-back Max Johnston, who joined from Motherwell last year, and Slovenian midfielder Jon Gorenc Stankovic, who spent four years at Huddersfield Town before leaving on a free transfer in 2020.

Brest vs Sturm Graz Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Brest vs Sturm Graz page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Brest are 5/6 to triumph on their Champions League bow, giving Les Pirates an implied win probability of 54.5%, while Sturm Graz are 100/30, or a 23.1% chance, to take three points back to Austria.

The draw is available at 13/5, both teams to score at 8/11, and over 2.5 total goals at 5/6.

Ludovic Ajorque, who joined Brest on loan from Mainz during the summer, is 2/1 favourite to score anytime in Guingamp, and 6/1 to strike first, while Biereth is considered the visitors' most likely marksman in both markets at 3/1 and 17/2 respectively.

Anytime Scorer - Romain Del Castillo @ 5/2

Brest scored 53 Ligue 1 goals last season on their way to third, with French forward Romain Del Castillo (eight) leading the way in the scoring charts for Les Pirates.

The 28-year-old enjoyed his most prolific campaign in 2023/24 and is already in the groove this term, scoring in his last two matches - a 4-0 victory over St. Etienne on August 31 followed by the opening effort in Saturday's defeat in the capital. Both of those strikes came from the penalty spot, which marks him out as an attractive option in the anytime scorer market.

Del Castillo is by no means a penalty merchant as five of his eight goals last season - including his first three this calendar year - came away from the 12-yard mark, but being designated penalty-taker always helps to increase your chances of finding the net, and he has proven to be deadly when staring the goalkeeper down from the spot.

The only penalty miss of his career came on the opening day of the 2024/25 season when he was kept out by Marseille's Geronimo Rulli, but two successful conversions against St. Etienne and PSG suggest that he has recovered from that setback.

Player to Receive a Card - Jon Gorenc Stankovic @ 15/8

I'm expecting a closely fought affair in France on Thursday, with Sturm doing their best to frustrate the hosts, making tactical fouls when required. One player who could be key to disrupting Brest's rhythm and breaking up play is Slovenia international Gorenc Stankovic, who is no stranger to making fouls in midfield.

The 28-year-old is averaging 1.5 fouls per game in this season's Austrian Bundesliga, up on 1.4 per game in the 2023/24 campaign, while he was averaging two fouls per game in 2022/23.

Goren Stankovic was even more heavy-handed in Europe last season, averaging three fouls per game across his six starts in the Europa League, and 1.8 across four Europa Conference League knockout stage outings. He picked up two yellows in the Europa League and five in the Austrian Bundesliga, also receiving two red cards in the latter competition, and looks a big contender in the player card market on Thursday.

Offers

Place an In-Play single bet of £10 or more at odds of 1/2+ on any Champions League game on Tuesday or Wednesday and get £5 in Free Bets to use In-Play on Thursday’s Champions League games.

You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.