Benfica vs Real Madrid Prediction: Alvaro Carreras to see yellow

Benfica play hosts to Real Madrid in Lisbon in this Champions League play-off match on Tuesday night, kick-off time 20:00, live on Prime Video. The two sides played just three weeks back in one of the most dramatic Champions League matches in recent times. Can we see a repeat?

Jamie Pacheco thinks Benfica can win or draw, while the brilliant but undisciplined Alvaro Carreras looks a good bet to pick up a card. Let's check out his Benfica vs Real Madrid Predictions...

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Benfica vs Real Madrid Team News & Preview:

Benfica  

Just a few weeks after that extraordinary 4-2 win for Benfica that involved keeper Anatoliy Trubin scoring with a great header deep into stoppage time to send his team through to make Playoffs, these two meet again at the same stadium.  

Since that match, they secured two 2-1 wins in the league and a disappointing 0-0 draw at home to Tondela. 

A 1-1 draw between Sporting and Porto last Monday night gave them some hope they could still secure a Top 2 finish, but that's pretty unlikely. 

Still, all will be forgotten if they manage to knock out Real here. Not just because of the prize money that goes with that, but also because of the prestige involved.  

Alexander Bah and Richard Rios are likely to miss out through injury.   

Real Madrid  

Real will be fuming about even having to play this match.  

They were in a strong position to go straight through to the next round before that defeat here in Lisbon meant they'll need to do it the hard way now.  

But they're in good form, Since that ill-fated night, they've won three in a row in the league: 2-1, 2-0 and 4-1 on Saturday against Real Sociedad. 

For those who follow my 3-3-3 column, the fact that both teams scored in that Sociedad game helped the column win again, this time at odds of 3.34/1. Just saying.  

The comfortable win meant that Kylian Mbappe was an unused substitute so he should be fresh for this one. There's no Jude Bellingham, though; he's injured.  

Trent Alexander-Arnold started on Saturday but it's hard to know if that means he's going to play from the start here or if they were resting Dani Carvajal for this one.  

Match Winner Odds/Double Chance   

Benfica are 13/5 to win with Real 19/20 and the draw 11/4.  

My first impression is that the price for Real is somewhat short. Not just because of what happened last time and Benfica's belief that they can do it again, but also because José Mourinho has far greater experience in these big European ties than his Real Madrid counterpart.  

This could be one of those games where Mourinho decides to keep things as tight as possible for as long as possible. meaning a 0-0 could well come into play.  

Then again, Real haven't been keeping many clean sheets of late so a Benfica goal, somewhat likely, could well mean they avoid defeat. Take Benfica or draw on the Double Chance market at 5/6.   

*You can check out Betfred's full market on this match by visiting our Benfica vs Real Madrid Odds page on betfred.com

Anytime Scorer 

That man, Vangelis Pavlidis, scored again at the weekend to make it 22 for the season. He also got one in that 4-2 win here against Real back in January. But the 13/10 is a bit on the short side, given he was bigger than 2/1 the last time they played each other.  

Vinicius scored two at the weekend, but they were both penalties, and if they get one here, it will surely be Mbappe taking it. The Frenchman, who scored two after we had him to do just that last time out at 18/5, is just 4/5 ahead of this one, though his scoring record this season is superb. Vinicius is 13/8.  

To be shown a card  

Alvaro Carreras is no angel. The Real left-back has already been booked eight times this season and sent off once, at Celta Vigo.  

Last year he got booked 16 times. Although he was a real fan favourite here at the Estadio da Luz last season before a big money move to Real in the summer, there generally seems to be a bit of needle when players go back to their old clubs.  

It also helps that the ref here is Davide Massa, who has issued 82 yellow cards in 21 games this season and nine reds!  

Carreras is 12/5 to be shown a card and that looks decent.   

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Jamie Pacheco Football P/L 2025 (Excludes 3-3-3 column):