Arsenal vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction: Gritty Gunners to get the job done

Bayer Leverkusen were mighty close to securing a first-leg lead over Arsenal in their Uefa Champions League last-16 tie last Wednesday, with Robert Andrich putting them ahead fewer than 60 seconds after half-time, but former Werkself star Kai Havertz stepped off the bench to score an 89th-minute spot-kick and level up the score heading into Tuesday's second leg at the Emirates Stadium (20:00 GMT, TNT Sports 1).

Below are my Arsenal vs Bayer Leverkusen predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Jurrien Timber is doubtful after being withdrawn in the 38th minute of Saturday's 2-0 Premier League victory over Everton with a leg injury. Cristhian Mosquera replaced the Dutchman against the Toffees and may be called upon to fill in again at right-back on Tuesday with Ben White, a more orthodox full-back than the Spaniard, not having featured since February 15.

Gunners boss Mikel Arteta could welcome back Martin Odegaard (knee) and Leandro Trossard (unspecified), who missed both games last week, with the former not featuring since the 4-1 win at Tottenham Hotspur on February 22, but Mikel Merino (foot) has been ruled out of making a return.

Football Odds

As for Bayer Leverkusen, Mark Flekken (knee), Loic Bade (muscle), Lucas Vazquez (calf), Arthur and Eliesse Ben Seghir (both ankle) are sidelined, while Aleix Garcia (head) and Martin Terrier (ankle) are doubtful after being forced off in their 1-1 Bundesliga draw at home to Bayern Munich on Saturday.

However, Alejandro Grimaldo, who served a suspension on the weekend, is free to return for Kasper Hjulmand's side in north London.

Arsenal vs Bayer Leverkusen Odds

Arsenal are 2/7 to win in regulation time and book their place in the quarter-finals, implying a 77.8% probability of success, while Bayer Leverkusen are 10/1, or a 9.1% chance, in the 90 minute Match Result market.

The draw, which would send the tie to extra time at the Emirates, is priced at 9/2, while the German side are 5/1 to win the tie by any means (Arsenal - 1/9).

Betfred's Price Boosts include Declan Rice To Be Carded at 6/1 (was 5/1).

Team With Most Booking Points - Arsenal @ 3/1

Arsenal haven't received the most booking points in any of their last 13 games, last doing so in a 3-2 home defeat to Manchester United on January 25.

However, as I think the Gunners will win on Tuesday, I believe there is value in backing Arteta's side in the Team With The Most Booking Points market at 3/1.

Let's face it; the Premier League leaders are masters of the dark arts. Tactical fouls, timewasting, you name it - they've got it all in abundance.

Domestic referees haven't all been wise to their tactics, but whistle-blowers on the continent appear to be a bit sharper; only Galatasaray (27), Real Madrid (25) and AS Monaco (24) have picked up more yellow cards in this season's Champions League than Arsenal (22), who are averaging 2.44 per game.

Leverkusen, meanwhile, have collected 17 yellows, averaging 1.88 per game.

Die Werkself were shown four yellows in last week's first leg, amounting to 40 booking points, while Arsenal were handed three yellows (30 booking points), but if the game develops as I expect it to, with the hosts assuming control early on, then we could see the Gunners rack up the booking points.

Player to Receive a Card - Cristhian Mosquera (ARS) @ 11/2

Mosquera has done a sterling job as centre-back cover for William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhaes, while he has also filled in admirably at right-back for Timber.

However, it's clear that the 21-year-old is more comfortable in the middle, so Leverkusen may target him down their left-hand side (Arsenal's right), if Timber doesn't pass a fitness test.

Despite only playing just over a half, Mosquera committed three fouls in Saturday's win against Everton, with the Toffees' tricky left winger, Iliman Ndiaye, fouled twice by the ex-Valencia man, who is averaging 1.1 fouls per 90 in this season's Premier League, and 1.4 per 90 in the Champions League.

Mosquera has recorded five fouls across his last two league outings, and in the first of those, a 1-0 win at Brighton on March 4, he was booked in the 11th minute for a foul on Georginio Rutter on the Seagulls' left wing.

Ibrahim Maza, who is averaging two and 1.4 fouls won per 90 in this season's Bundesliga and Champions League, respectively, started on the left-hand side of Leverkusen's front three in last week's first leg, drawing a yellow-card challenge from Arsenal midfielder Martin Zubimendi.

Other players who have operated down Leverkusen's left-hand side, including at wing-back, include Alejandro Grimaldo, Malik Tillman and Christian Kofane, averaging 0.9, 1.4 and 1.5 fouls won per 90, respectively, in the Champions League.

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