AC Milan vs Red Star Belgrade Prediction: More league phase fun at San Siro

After losing their first two Uefa Champions League games this season, AC Milan are now unbeaten in their last three and are eyeing up a top-eight finish to the league phase campaign. Their opponents at San Siro on Wednesday (20:00, TNT Sports 5), Red Star Belgrade, lost their first four matches but thrashed Stuttgart 5-1 last time out to give themselves a chance of reaching the knockout phase play-offs.

Read below for my AC Milan vs Red Star Belgrade prediction, complete with team news and match odds.

Team News

No Milan player can better Christian Pulisic's Champions League goal tally of three this season but the Italian giants must make do without 'Captain America' on Wednesday following the forward's recent calf injury which will keep him out until after Christmas.

Pulisic joins Ismael Bennacer and Alessandro Florenzi in the treatment room, while Luka Jovic is also a doubt.

Ex-Chelsea trio Fikayo Tomori, Tammy Abraham and Ruben Loftus-Cheek are among those hoping for promotions to the starting XI after being named as substitutes for last Friday's 2-1 defeat at Atalanta.

Football Odds

First-choice Red Star goalkeeper Omri Glazer has been out injured since mid-October and the 28-year-old will miss out again in Milan, as will Peter Olayinka.

There could be a familiar face to home fans at San Siro with Bosnian midfielder Rade Krunic, who made over 100 appearances for Milan across four-and-a-half seasons with the club before leaving last year, in contention to feature for the visitors.

AC Milan vs Red Star Belgrade Odds

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Milan are 1/4 to record a fourth consecutive Champions League victory on Wednesday, giving the hosts an implied win probability of 80%, while Red Star are 10/1, or a 9.1% chance, to triumph in back-to-back league phase matches.

The draw is priced at 5/1, both teams to score at 8/11, and over 2.5 total goals at 2/5.

Abraham and Alvaro Morata (both 1/1) head the anytime goalscorer market, with Aleksandar Katai first up for the Serbians at 100/30.

Total Goals - Over 3.5 @ 1/1

Four of Milan's last seven games in all competitions have produced over 3.5 total goals, including both Champions League contests in that period - a 3-1 win at Real Madrid on November 5 and a 3-2 victory at Slovan Bratislava three weeks later. Milan also lost 3-1 at home to Liverpool in week one on September 17 and beat Club Brugge 3-1 at San Siro on October 22, meaning 80 per cent (four) of their five league phase matches have finished with over 3.5 total goals.

Red Star, meanwhile, have played 26 times across all competitions this season and 61.5 per cent (16) of their games have seen four or more strikes. Like Milan, 80 per cent (four) of their league phase contests in the Champions League have seen over 3.5 total goals, and they've all come in the last four game weeks. There have been 10 goals scored across their two trips away from Belgrade as they lost 4-0 on their previous visit to Milan on October 1 when Inter beat them 4-0 at San Siro before Monaco thrashed the Red-Whites 5-1 at the Stade Louis II 21 days later.

A draw doesn't really do much for Red Star's play-off hopes as they are currently four points behind 24th-place Paris Saint-Germain with two rounds of fixtures remaining after this week. As such, I expect an open contest at San Siro with Milan also looking for the win, and they'll be expected to get all three points at home.

Match Result & Both Teams to Score - AC Milan & Yes @ 6/4

Given over 3.5 goals has landed in 80 per cent of Milan's European matches this season, it's no surprise to see that both teams to score has also been a winner 80 per cent of the time, with their 1-0 defeat at Bayer Leverkusen on October 1 proving to be the outlier in both.

Once again, Red Star's statistics are strikingly similar, with 80 per cent of their league phase matches seeing both teams score, their 4-0 defeat to Inter the exception to the rule.

Inter have only conceded one goal fewer than their city rivals in Serie A this season but let in 22 in the league last season compared to Milan's 49 and have only let in one in six Champions League outings this term, whereas Paulo Fonseca's side have shipped eight goals in their first five games.

Ultimately, though, I do expect Milan to triumph on home soil having won six of their last eight games at San Siro (including their 'away' victory over Inter at the stadium). Losing Pulisic is a big blow but Red Star are also missing key personnel and despite showing positive signs going forward, scoring twice against Barcelona and netting five in a big win over Stuttgart, a goals-conceded tally of 17 - behind only Slovan Bratislava and Red Bull Salzburg (both 18) - points at a team that is vulnerable at the back.

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