Central Coast Mariners vs Perth Glory Prediction: McCalmont to sprinkle some Mariners magic

The 2024/25 Australia A-League Men's season is yet to fully take flight for either Central Coast Mariners or Perth Glory, who meet at Industree Group Stadium on Saturday (06:00, TNT Sports 1).

Read on for my Central Coast Mariners vs Perth Glory prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

There are no changes to the Central Coast Mariners squad from their 1-1 draw at Adelaide United last Saturday when Sabit Ngor came off the bench to score a second-half equaliser for the visitors. The 23-year-old has done his chances of starting this weekend no harm, with Alou Kuol's spot in the starting XI now under scrutiny.

Nathan Paull came on alongside Ngor at half-time in Adelaide and is also pushing for a start in Gosford in place of Storm Roux.

Experienced Australian defender Trent Sainsbury remains injured for the Mariners.

Football Odds

Perth Glory have three players - Mustafa Amini, Nikola Mileusnic and Josh Risdon - out injured, with the trio all missing last weekend's 2-0 defeat at home to Wellington Phoenix.

Cristian Caicedo and Trent Ostler have been added to the long list.

Central Coast Mariners vs Perth Glory Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Central Coast Mariners vs Perth Glory page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Central Coast Mariners, who won last season's Premier's Plate and Grand Final as part of a historic treble, are 4/9 to win their first league match of the 2024/25 campaign, giving them an implied win probability of 69.2%. Perth Glory, meanwhile, are 9/2, or an 18.2% chance, to get off the mark with a victory in Gosford.

The draw can be backed at 16/5, both teams to score at 8/13, and over 2.5 total goals at 8/15.

Match Result & Total Goals Over/Under 2.5 - Central Coast Mariners & Over 2.5 @ 21/20

Central Coast Mariners kicked off the defence of their crowns with a couple of stalemates last month, playing out a goalless draw in Gosford with Melbourne Victory on October 18 before being held in Adelaide eight days later.

Mark Jackson's side have also made a poor start to their AFC Champions League campaign, losing all three games against Shandong Taishan (1-3), Buriram (1-2) and Shanghai Port (2-3), the second game of which was at home.

Additionally, the Mariners were dumped out of the Australia Cup by NPL Victoria side Heidelberg (1-3, aet) in August.

That's six games without a win to start the season, then. So, why am I backing Saturday's hosts to win this weekend?

Well, for a start, they're playing 2023/24 wooden spooners Perth Glory, who finished a mammoth 33 points behind them last season. The Glory did manage to win their home game at HBF Park 2-0 last November but were beaten 4-2 at Industree Group Stadium the following month.

Perth changed manager in the off-season, bringing in David Zdrilic to avoid another embarrassing A-League Men's campaign. Unfortunately, judging them off their first two games, it looks like there will be more misery in 2024/25.

The Glory were smashed 6-1 by Macarthur FC in round one, conceding five of those goals before half-time in Sydney. Things weren't quite so bad last weekend when Wellington Phoenix pitched up at HBF Park, but they still lost 2-0 and rarely threatened to score.

A trip to the reigning champions up next isn't ideal, then.

In contrast, the Mariners will be licking their lips at the prospect of hosting a Glory side that has lost their last six A-League Men's matches and is winless in their last 12, dating back to February.

Both of CCM's league games this term have seen under 2.5 total goals, but all three of their continental contests have seen at least three goals scored.

Perth, meanwhile, saw seven goals - six against them - fly in on their opening round fixture at Campbelltown Stadium, and eight of their last nine games in all competitions have seen over 2.5 total goals. We can probably ignore the 2-0 defeat to Wellington Phoenix last weekend, as the New Zealanders are a notoriously stingy team that give little up.

While the Mariners did keep a clean sheet against Melbourne Victory on the opening day, their defence can be got at, as illustrated in high-scoring AFC Champions League defeats to Shandong Taishan, Buriram and Shanghai Port.

The Glory scored twice in both head-to-heads last season and also found the net a couple of times home and away in the 2023/24 campaign.

After last Saturday's blank at home to the Nix, Perth should be right up for this one and will take confidence from their previous joy in front of goal against the Mariners.

I do think there will be a few strikes in this one, but I'm going to play things slightly safer and back a Mariners win and over 2.5 total goals. A CCM victory and both teams to score is priced at 7/4 if you're feeling a little braver.

Anytime Goalscorer - Alfie McCalmont (CCM) @ 4/1

This is a price I really like the look of this weekend.

Alfie McCalmont is yet to get off the mark for the Mariners since quitting Carlisle United in England and heading Down Under in July, while he found the net just four times across his two seasons with the Cumbrians.

The Thirsk-born midfielder, who has represented the Northern Ireland senior team four times since making his international debut in 2019, also struck just once in 26 League 1 appearances for Morecambe in 2021/22.

I'm not really selling this, am I?

Well, I prefer to hark back to the days of 2020/21, when Mr. McCalmont was seemingly scoring screamers in League 2 every week for Oldham Athletic, on loan from Leeds United. It was his form at the Latics that really put him on the map in senior football, but the reality is that he has failed to kick on since then.

The Whites Academy graduate has now embarked on an adventure in Australia in a bid to try and fully realise his potential, with Mariners boss Jackson a big reason for his Gosford move.

Jackson is well aware of McCalmont's abilities having coached him in the youth ranks at Leeds. CCM's head coach has already reinvigorated the career of another former Whites player, Ryan Edmondson, who was stumbling around in the lower reaches of the English Football League before heading to Australia and netting seven times in his maiden Mariners campaign to help inspire the side to a historic treble.

McCalmont is hoping to be the next revival story on the Central Coast, and he has made an encouraging start, playing the duration of both A-League games so far.

Truthfully, he could have made himself an instant hero when the ball arrived at his feet in the fifth minute of second-half stoppage time on opening day against Melbourne Victory, only to balloon his shot high and wide of Jack Duncan's goal.

The position he took up offers some encouragement, though, as I think he could get a lot of joy from such pull-backs on the edge of the penalty area.

I'm expecting the Mariners to rattle two or three past Perth at least on Saturday, and McCalmont certainly offers some value in the anytime goalscorer market. He's also 11/1 if you really want to push the boat out and back him to fire first at Industree Group Stadium.

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