Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets Prediction: Mariners to make winning return to Gosford

Newcastle Jets will be looking to avenge November's F3 derby defeat to Central Coast Mariners when the two teams meet again on Saturday (08:35, TNT Sports 1) at Industree Group Stadium. The Mariners won 2-1 at McDonald Jones Stadium earlier in the 2024/25 Australian A-League Men's campaign and eight points are separating Saturday's ninth-placed hosts and the Jets (11th) heading into the weekend, although the visitors do have two games in hand on their rivals.

Below is my Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets prediction, alongside the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Central Coast Mariners are still missing injured quintet Brad Tapp, Miguel Di Pizio (both knee), Alfie McCalmont, Nicholas Duarte and Lucas Mauragis (all unspecified).

January signing Abdelelah Faisal has made two substitute appearances for Mark Jackson's side since joining from Perth Glory but Saturday represents his first opportunity to play his first minutes at Industree Group Stadium as a Mariner.

Ryan Edmondson was given the nod to lead the line ahead of Alou Kuol in Wednesday's 2-2 draw with Western United and the 23-year-old repaid Jackson's faith in him by scoring his side's second. The former Leeds United man should start again on Saturday, with Kuol forced to settle for a second-half showing again.

Football Odds

Newcastle Jets announced two player departures earlier this week with Nathan Grimaldi, whose one and only ALM appearance this season came in the 3-1 defeat at Western United on January 17, leaving by mutual consent, and 21-year-old goalkeeper Zac Bowling joining Blacktown City on a season-long loan ahead of the upcoming NSW NPL campaign.

Dane Ingham (muscle), Aleksandar Susnjar (ankle), Oscar Fryer (knee), Jacob Dowse and Alex Nunes (both unspecified) are ruled out again for the Jets, who could hand first starts to January recruits Charles M'Mombwa and Kota Mizunuma, who made their debuts off the bench in last Saturday's 2-2 draw with Perth Glory.

Philip Cancar and Justin Vidic are also back in the extended squad after missing out recently.

Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets Odds

Central Coast Mariners are winless in their last three home games, two of which they lost, but have been installed as 1/1 favourites on Saturday, while Newcastle Jets are 9/4, or a 30.8% chance, to triumph at Industree Group Stadium for the first time since June 2021.

There hasn't been a draw in the F3 derby since July 2020 but you can back a stalemate at 23/10 this weekend, while both teams to score is priced at 8/13.

Kuol (8/5) and Edmondson (7/4) head the anytime goalscorer market with Ben Gibson (11/5) first up for the visitors.

Match Result - Central Coast Mariners @ 1/1

Central Coast Mariners have enjoyed six straight ALM victories against Newcastle Jets, who have lost eight of their 13 league outings this season and have fallen to defeat in two of their last three, the latest of which came at Western United (3-1) on January 17.

The Jets have won three of their seven away games in 2024/25 but two of those were against the only two teams currently below them in the table, Brisbane Roar (0-2) and Perth Glory (0-4), with a 2-1 success at Macarthur - their first away trip of the campaign - on October 25 their only real surprise result.

Stanton's side have lost their other four matches on the road, losing by at least two goals in three of them.

Newcastle might fancy their chances on Saturday, though, given the Mariners' poor home record this season. The 2023/24 treble winners have claimed just a single league success at Industree Group Stadium, losing three and drawing three of the other six.

However, they've not played at home since drawing 1-1 with Melbourne City on New Year's Eve, and since the turn of the year, Jackson's side have lost just one of five games on their travels, winning twice and drawing the same amount.

As a result, the Mariners should head into this contest with more confidence than they had the last time they played on home soil when they were on a three-game winless run.

CCM also have the mental edge in this fixture after winning the reverse fixture in Newcastle and last dropping points against the Jets on December 11, 2022, racking up six straight victories since.

The Jets have won just one of their five matches in 2025 so far and have lost three of their last six, so with the Mariners unbeaten in their last three, I think the momentum is with the hosts, who can claim a seventh consecutive F3 derby win on Saturday.

Booking Points Over/Under +32.5 @ 8/11

There were four yellow cards shared in November's reverse fixture as both teams received a caution in each half at McDonald Jones Stadium.

That was the third and final head-to-head of the calendar year and the two previous each saw five yellows dished out, meaning there were at least 40 booking points in all three F3 derbies in 2024 (10 points for a yellow with Betfred).

This is a fixture that clearly has friction as further evidenced by the fact that of the last seven meetings between the two teams, dating back to 2022, only once has there not been at least three cards - and therefore 30 booking points - shown.

My confidence in cards being produced this weekend also lies in the Mariners topping the yellow card count in this season's ALM, with the Gosford club receiving 31 across their first 15 matches at an average of 2.1 per game.

The Jets have only been shown 18 yellows but have played two games fewer than their rivals, averaging 1.4 per game.

Backing over 42.5 booking points at 6/4, which has landed in five of the last seven F3 derbies, could be tempting, but if you want to play things safer I'd advise over 32.5 at 8/11.

Offers

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down

You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.