Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory Prediction: Both sides to score in A-League Men’s opener

After more than four months without Australian A-League Men's action, the Central Coast Mariners begin the defence of their Premiers Plate and championship title when they host the first game of the 2024/25 campaign at Industree Group Stadium on Friday (09:35).

Last season's beaten finalists in the Grand Final, Melbourne Victory, provide the opposition in Gosford, and you can build up to the contest by checking out my Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory prediction below, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

The Central Coast Mariners' success over the last couple of years has, inevitably, attracted attention from overseas, and they've continued to pay the price for their performances with the departures of more key players in the off-season.

Joshua Nisbet (Ross County), Jacob Farrell (Portsmouth), Daniel Hall (Auckland FC) and Max Balard (NAC Breda), four pillars of their treble-winning team in 2023/24, have all left - three of them to Europe - while captain and number one goalkeeper Danny Vukovic has called time on his career.

Adam Pavlesic has joined from Sydney FC to fill the position vacated by Vukovic, but the 22-year-old has made an inauspicious start to life at the Mariners, shipping eight goals across his first three games in the Australia Cup and AFC Champions League. He was also sent off in a 2-1 home defeat to Buriam in the latter competition at the beginning of the month.

Nevertheless, Pavlesic is expected to make his A-League Men's debut for the Mariners on Friday, which would bring up appearance number four in the competition after playing three times for his previous club in the league.

Other new arrivals include Australian defender Lucas Mauragis (Newcastle Jets), ex-Leeds United Academy graduate Alfie McCalmont (Carlisle United - loan), Vitor Feijao (SER Caxias), Sabit James Ngor (Heidelberg), and, most notably, 58-cap Socceroos international Trent Sainsbury (Al-Wakra), although he has been ruled out for the rest of 2024 after suffering a "freak" chest injury in the gym this week.

Head coach Mark Jackson has a tough task rebuilding the side, but after working his magic last season, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Mariners get back in the groove quickly.

Football Odds

Melbourne Victory have a new man in the dugout in former Melbourne City manager Patrick Kisnorbo, who has replaced the new Australia men's national team boss, Tony Popovic, at the helm. Kisborbo made a great start to life at Victory by winning his first four games in the Australia Cup but Macarthur FC proved a stubborn outfit in the final as the Bulls edged out the Melbourne club 1-0 at AAMI Park.

Still, Kisborno will have been encouraged by what he has seen so far, as well as the fact the club has been able to keep hold of French playmaker Zinedine Machach and Socceroos international Daniel Arzani, although the latter is suspended for Friday's match.

Last season's top scorer, Bruno Fornaroli, also remains at Victory, but the 37-year-old has started just once under Kisnorbo so far and didn't even come off the bench in wins over Moreton City Excelsior (4-0) and Adelaide United (1-0), with new signing Nikos Vergos (Atromitos) preferred at the point of attack. Vergos scored three times in the Australia Cup and is one of the pre-season favourites to win the Golden Boot, which Fornaroli narrowly missed out on in 2023/24 to Perth Glory's Adam Taggart.

Brendan Hamill (Mohun Bagan), Reno Piscopo (Newcastle Jets), Jing Reece (Central Coast Mariners) and Josh Rawlins (Utrecht) have also moved to Melbourne to join Victory, who have seen Damien Da Silva (Clermont), Leigh Broxham (St Albans), Paul Izzo (Randers) and Ben Folami (Adelaide United), among others, depart the club.

Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Friday's hosts are 7/5 to claim all three points in the opening match of the 2024/25 A-League Men's season, giving the Mariners an implied win probability of 41.7%, while the visitors are 7/4, or a 36.4% chance, to secure a long-awaited victory in Gosford. The draw, meanwhile, can be backed at 21/10.

Both teams to score is priced at 8/11 and over 2.5 total goals at 10/11, while Fornaroli (8/5) is favourite to strike anytime, followed by Vergos and Mariners pair Alou Kuol and Ryan Edmondson (all 21/10).

Double Chance & BTTS - Central Coast Mariners or Draw & Yes @ 13/10

The Mariners have been by far and away the best team in Australia over the last couple of years, lifting back-to-back Premiers Plates and winning last season's Grand Final to clinch a historic treble, which also included the AFC Cup.

Their dominance is partly reflected in their recent head-to-head record with Victory, who have only beaten the Mariners once in the last seven meetings dating back to March 2022. In fairness to the Boys in Blue, CCM have only won two of the other six in regulation time, with one of the four draws - May's Grand Final - seeing the Gosford club score twice in extra-time to secure a 3-1 win and the championship.

Victory haven't beaten the Mariners on the Central Coast since February 2019 when a second-half fightback saw them triumph 2-3 at Industree Group Stadium. Since then, CCM are six games unbeaten against them in Gosford, but the Big V have scored in all of them and both teams to score has landed in the previous nine head-to-heads in New South Wales.

The Mariners finished bottom of the BTTS table in 2023/24 with just 47% (14/30) of their matches - including the play-offs - ending with at least a goal on either side; however, that number was up to 69% at Industree Group Stadium with just three clubs - Perth Glory (86%), Brisbane Roar (79%) and Adelaide United (71%) - recording a higher percentage at home.

Victory, meanwhile, finished third in the BTTS table with 68% (21/31), and only the Glory (77%) experienced a higher percentage of away days where both teams found the net.

CCM began last season terribly, losing their opening AFC Cup group game and their first four A-League matches, two of which came at home. However, they rallied to lose just two more in all competitions across the rest of the season, and both defeats came against Sydney FC - 3-1 at home on February 10, and 2-0 away on March 30.

Backing both teams to score feels like an obvious shout given the recent success of this market in games between these two in Gosford, but to up the odds to over EVS I'm also opting for the double chance result on the hosts. Both sides are beginning new eras with many players having departed the Mariners, and Victory starting life under a new manager.

As such, I'm not sure if I want to go all out on one team at this early stage, but I do think CCM can at least avoid defeat in their own stadium.

Anytime Goalscorer - Mikael Doka (CCM) @ 4/1

The Fortaleza-born full-back joined the Mariners in August 2023 from Santos, where he had spent 13 years after joining the Brazilian club's academy aged 10, and he took a while to really get going in Australia.

But, as CCM went from strength to strength, so did Doka as he emerged as one of the club's most influential players in a historic campaign that saw Jackson's side win the treble.

Despite initially being billed as a right-back, Doka found a home in a more advanced position down the right-hand side and ended the campaign with seven goals and 11 assists in 43 appearances.

Penalties have helped to swell those numbers, with three of his strikes in 2023/24 coming from spot-kicks, but that only increases his chances of scoring as he is installed as the club's designated penalty-taker.

The 24-year-old is already off the mark for this season having netted in a 3-1 Australia Cup defeat (aet) at Heidelberg in August, and he followed that effort up with a successfully converted spot-kick in a loss by the same scoreline to Chinese side Shandong Taishan in the AFC Champions League last month.

At 4/1, I'm happy to back one of the Mariners' main men to open his 2024/25 A-League Men's account on Friday.

Offers

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