Central Coast Mariners vs Brisbane Roar Prediction: A Jacob cracker in Gosford?

Last season's Premiership and Grand Final winners, Central Coast Mariners, have endured a difficult 2024/25 season in the Australian A-League Men's, failing to even make the top six this time around. On Friday (10:35, TNT Sports 1), they can at least clinch 10th by beating second-bottom Brisbane Roar at Industree Group Stadium.

Below are my Central Coast Mariners vs Brisbane Roar predictions, alongside all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Mariners captain Trent Sainsbury opened the scoring in his side's last game, a 2-2 draw with Macarthur on April 20, but the 33-year-old suffered devastation in the closing stages of that stalemate as he went down with a suspected ruptured Achilles tendon, and he has been ruled out of Friday's game against Brisbane Roar.

Another experienced defender, Storm Roux, misses out again as he continues to serve a suspension for a red card received in the 6-0 F3 derby defeat to Newcastle Jets on April 12.

Football Odds

Vitor Feijao, Nathan Paul and and Rocco Smith, none of whom were in Mark Jackson's matchday 18 last time out, are in the extended squad for the Mariners' season finale.

Ben Warland (knee) and Corey Brown (unspecified) remain in Brisbane Roar's treatment room, but otherwise, Ruben Zadkovich's side are at full strength.

He could name an unchanged XI following last Saturday's 1-0 win over Wellington Phoenix, although Jacob Brazete, Keegan Jelacic, Louis Zabala and Nathan Amanatidis will be hopeful of earning promotions from the bench.

Central Coast Mariners vs Brisbane Roar Odds

The Mariners have only won one of their last 12 games and are underdogs for Friday's game, despite playing at home and enjoying an eight-point lead over Brisbane Roar. The hosts are 7/4, or a 36.4% chance, to claim all three points in Gosford, while the visitors are 5/4, implying a 44.4% probability.

The draw is priced at 12/5, both teams to score at 8/15, and over 2.5 total goals at 8/13.

Mariners forward Alou Kuol (15/8) heads the anytime goalscorer market, followed by 18-year-old Arthur De Lima (2/1), who scored his third ALM goal of the season in the draw against Macarthur. Adam Zimarino (21/10) and Henry Hore (9/4) are first up for the Roar.

Total Goals - Over 3.5 @ 6/4

Brisbane are joint-second bottom in the over 3.5 goals table, with 44% (11/25) of their games finishing with at least four goals, whereas the Mariners are sixth with 68% (17/25).

Four of CCM's last five matches have gone over 3.5 goals, including their most recent two - a 6-0 defeat at Newcastle Jets followed by a 2-2 draw at home with Macarthur.

The Roar's last couple of games have been low-scoring, with a 1-1 draw against Adelaide United followed by a 1-0 win over Wellington Phoenix. However, three of their last four away outings, including their last two, have seen at least four strikes, with their most recent, a 3-2 defeat at Melbourne City, producing five.

Four goals were scored in January's reverse fixture at Suncorp Stadium as the Mariners won 3-1, and I'm confident we can hit that number as a minimum on Friday.

The visitors can't move up or down in the table and thus have nothing to lose in Gosford, while they should head here in a confident mood, looking to extend their three-game unbeaten run.

Jackson's side, meanwhile, may need to win to clinch 10th place, depending on Wellington's result earlier in the day against Perth Glory, so there could be something riding on this contest for the hosts.

It's an end-of-season game, and that should lend itself to an entertaining match at Industree Group Stadium, where we will hopefully see a few goals scored to land this 6/4 selection.

Anytime Goalscorer - Jacob Brazete (BRI) @ 12/5

Brisbane winger Brazete has made 20 appearances in his maiden ALM campaign, starting six times - including two of Roar's last three games. He was dropped down to the bench last Saturday, but came on for Hore in the 64th minute and saw a shot blocked 12 minutes later before testing Wellington goalkeeper Joshua Oluwayemi with an effort in the 83rd minute.

The 19-year-old has only scored once in 2024/25, getting off the mark for Roar in a 1-1 draw at Adelaide United on March 8. He equalised for his side in that stalemate only 12 minutes after being introduced at Coopers Stadium, showing that he can make an impact as a substitute, as well as a starter.

I'm hopeful that he'll be given the nod from the off at Industree Group Stadium on Friday, but even if he doesn't appear until the second half, I believe he can have a positive impact on the game and get himself on the scoresheet.

Brazete is averaging 1.4 shots per game in the ALM, despite starting just six of his 20 appearances coming as a starter and featuring for just 786 minutes in total.

Impressively, his shots on target per game average is 0.7, so he's also striking with a degree of accuracy, too.

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