Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas Prediction: Moleiro to cause more mayhem

Monday evening's La Liga action comes from the Estadio de Balaidos as ninth-place Celta Vigo take on relegation-threatened Las Palmas. The visitors are currently 19th but can move outside the bottom three with a victory in Vigo, while the hosts will jump to seventh if they beat Los Amarillos.

Below are my Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas predictions, supported by the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this 20:00 kick-off (La Liga TV/Premier Sports 1).

Team News

Oscar Mingueza is suspended for Celta Vigo after picking up his fifth yellow card of the 2024/25 La Liga campaign in the 1-0 victory at Real Valladolid before the international break. The 25-year-old started at left wing-back in the win at the Estadio Jose Zorrilla and could be replaced by Hugo Alvarez or Franco Cervi.

Swedish midfielder Williot Swedberg will also miss out on Monday's game due to a thigh problem. The 21-year-old hasn't featured for Los Celestes since his 17th-minute substitution in the 2-2 draw at Girona on March 1.

Football Odds

Mingueza aside, Celta head coach Claudio Giraldez could name the same starting XI that enjoyed success over Valladolid. Marcos Alonso struck the winning goal in that game, converting an 83rd-minute penalty, and the former Chelsea man looks likely to line up on the left of a back three again unless he is tasked with replacing Mingueza at wing-back.

For the visitors, Benito Ramirez is absent for a third straight match with a muscular issue, while Andy Pelmard (thigh) is set to sit out a fifth.

Kirian Rodriguez, meanwhile, remains out for the foreseeable future after suffering a cancer relapse last month.

Las Palmas are, though, boosted by the returns of Dario Essugo and Viti Rozada, who both missed the 2-2 home draw with Alaves on March 14 due to suspension.

Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas Odds

Celta won the reverse fixture 1-0 in October and are 4/7 to do the double over their opponents, recording a fourth straight home victory in the process. Those odds imply a win probability of 63.6%, while Las Palmas are 5/1, or a 16.7% chance, to end a six-game wait and triumph on their travels for the first time since November 30 when they shocked Barcelona 2-1.

The draw is priced at 3/1, both teams to score at 10/11, and over 2.5 total goals at 4/5.

Celta captain Iago Aspas, who has eight goals in 21 La Liga appearances this season, heads the anytime goalscorer market at 11/8, followed by Borja Iglesias (6/4), who struck the only goal of the game in Gran Canaria. Fabio Silva is considered Las Palmas' most likely goalscorer at 11/4.

Double Chance & BTTS - Celta Vigo or Draw & Yes @ 23/20

Celta Vigo have claimed maximum points in six of their last eight La Liga home games and will expect to make it seven from nine on Monday against a side that are winless in 11.

Las Palmas have been particularly poor on their travels since the turn of the year, losing four of their five away from Gran Canaria - drawing the other - and they are now in real danger of relegation with just 10 matches remaining.

One positive, though, is that they have scored in four of their five away games this calendar year, which includes a trip to the Santiago Bernabeu, where they lost 4-1 to Real Madrid on January 19.

Indiscipline has cost them dearly, however, with dismissals in three of those contests, and in the most recent two, a 1-1 draw with Real Valladolid and a 1-0 defeat to Real Betis, they were 1-0 up and goalless, respectively. Had they kept 11 men on the pitch, Los Amarillos could well have ended up with four points, rather than one, from those two away trips.

It's a big ask for the visitors to avoid defeat at a venue where Celta have won six of their last eight matches, and indeed, only four clubs have claimed more points at home in this season's La Liga than Los Celestes (29).

I certainly wouldn't put you off backing a home win at 4/7, nor a Celta victory and both teams to score at 23/10.

However, I wonder whether there is still some fight left in this Las Palmas side. They've drawn two of their last three games, albeit both against teams battling relegation, and the most recent (2-2 v Alaves) saw them rally from two goals down, netting their first in the 90th minute and the equaliser in the fifth minute of added time.

Celta only beat Valladolid last time out thanks to a late penalty, and a week before that, they had to come from a goal down to beat Leganes 2-1 at home. Their previous victory, a 1-0 win against Osasuna, also required a spot-kick to help them to three points, and they've not beaten an opponent by a two-goal margin since overcoming Real Sociedad 2-0 on December 21. They've done well but haven't exactly run away with games in 2025 and have relied on luck in a few.

Backing the hosts on the double chance and both teams to score looks the safest bet here, with Las Palmas (71%) and Celta (68%) ranking second and third, respectively, in the La Liga BTTS table.

Player to Receive a Card - Javi Rodriguez (CEL) @ 13/5

Javi Rodriguez has enjoyed a breakout season with Celta, making 26 appearances in La Liga, 18 of which have been as a starter. The 21-year-old played the duration of the victory over Valladolid before the March international break and is expected to keep his place on the right-hand side of a three-man defence against Las Palmas.

Rodriguez is one of his side's most booked players, though, with only Alonso (eight) receiving more yellow cards than him (five - level with four others).

The Spaniard is averaging 0.8 fouls per game, and on Monday, he's likely to be in direct contact with Las Palmas' left-winger, Alberto Moleiro, who has been fouled, on average, 1.2 times per game in this season's La Liga.

Moleiro was chopped down five times in his side's draw with Alaves last time out, and three of the four fouls made by Nahuel Tenaglia in that game were on the 21-year-old. The Alaves right-back was booked for the last of those challenges on Moleiro, who won three free-kicks against Celta in October. Two of them resulted in yellows for the opposition, with Fran Beltran cautioned in the first half and Anastasios Douvikas disciplined after the interval.

Six Celta players were carded in that fiery victory against Las Palmas, and two of them - Aspas and Ilaix Moriba - were shown reds for two bookable offences.

Celta's right-sided centre-back that day, Javi Manquillo, was also booked for an off-the-ball challenge, making it a hat-trick of right-sided cards (Mingueza was right wing-back and Aspas played right-wing - Beltran's heat map also showed him a lot of his running on that side).

This all leads me to think that 13/5 is a bit of a steal for a Rodriguez yellow on Monday. Moleiro can be a tricky opponent for anyone and he could pose some problems for his agemate in Vigo.

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