Southampton vs Liverpool Prediction: Carabao Cup chaos on the South Coast

Liverpool beat Southampton 3-2 at St Mary's Stadium less than a month ago in the Premier League but the sides meet again on Wednesday (20:00, Sky Sports Football), this time in the Carabao Cup quarter-finals. However, Russell Martin won't be in the home dugout in midweek after being sacked as Saints head coach following the South Coast club's 5-0 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday.

Below is my Southampton vs Liverpool prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Southampton U21s head coach Simon Rusk has been named interim manager of the senior team and he could be boosted by the return to fitness of goalkeeper Aaron Ramsdale, who has missed his side's last five matches.

Captain and defender Jack Stephens is still suspended while Gavin Bazunu, Ross Stewart and Will Smallbone are all expected to miss out again through injury.

Nathan Wood, Yukinari Sugawara, Adam Lallana, Cameron Archer and Paul Onuachu were all named as substitutes against Spurs and will be looking to earn promotions to the starting lineup against the reigning Carabao Cup holders.

Football Odds

Unlike yellow cards, red cards are carried over to the domestic cup competitions, so Liverpool head coach Arne Slot will be shorn of the services of Andy Robertson in midweek following his dismissal in last Saturday's 2-2 draw with Fulham at Anfield. Kostas Tsimikas has only recently returned to training, too, and is unlikely to be risked, at least from the start, on Wednesday, so 21-year-old James Norris could make his full Reds debut.

Ibrahima Konate and Conor Bradley are still out injured while Trent Alexander-Arnold, Virgil van Dijk and Joe Gomez could all be rested ahead of a trip to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday. Jarell Quansah will start in central defence and could be joined by 18-year-old centre-back Amara Nallo who is in line to make his Liverpool debut.

One of Tyler Morton or Wataru Endo could also drop into defence, with the other set to start but perhaps in a more familiar midfield position. Caoimhin Kelleher will start in goal.

Alexis Mac Allister hasn't played since the 3-3 draw with Newcastle United on December 4 following one-game suspensions in the Uefa Champions League and Premier League, so the Argentine should begin the game at St Mary's. Harvey Elliott will make his first start of the season but it remains to be seen whether he is deployed in midfield or in attack, where Darwin Nunez and Federico Chiesa are set to get the nod. With Diogo Jota failing to train on Monday, the Portuguese forward may not be risked from the start, and that could force Slot to play Elliott from the right.

James McConnell, Trey Nyoni and Jayden Danns are among the other youngsters who could feature in some capacity.

Southampton vs Liverpool Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Southampton vs Liverpool page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Southampton are 13/2, or a 13.3% chance, to triumph for the first time since November 2 when they beat Liverpool's local rivals, Everton, 1-0 at home in the Premier League. Wednesday's visitors, meanwhile, are 2/5 (71.4%) to win inside regulation time and advance to the semi-finals.

The draw, which would take the tie to a penalty shootout, is available at 4/1, and both teams to score is priced at 4/7.

Anytime Goalscorer - Alexis Mac Allister (LIV) @ 18/5

By the time Wednesday's game rolls around, Mac Allister will have enjoyed a two-week rest, making him a certainty to start at St Mary's. Ryan Gravenberch, Curtis Jones and Dominik Szoboszlai have started Liverpool's last two matches and will, at best, make the bench in midweek. So, there will be a lot of responsibility on the shoulders of Mac Allister, who might be given a more advanced role in midfield if Elliott is deployed as a right-winger.

Despite regularly playing as a holding midfielder, the 25-year-old scored seven times in his debut season with the Reds, scoring five Premier League goals and netting one apiece in the FA Cup and Uefa Europa League. He's already struck twice this term, against Bologna and Real Madrid - both in the Uefa Champions League - and is now eyeing up a first Carabao Cup goal since the 2020/21 campaign when he scored twice in three appearances for previous club Brighton & Hove Albion.

Mac Allister successfully dispatched eight spot-kicks during his time with the Seagulls and scored twice from the penalty spot for Liverpool last season. With Mohamed Salah likely to be benched or left out of the squad on Wednesday, penalty-kick duties are set to be passed over to Mac Allister, who has a 92.3 per cent (12/13) conversion rate in his career.

Whether it be from 12 yards or further out in open play, I think 18/5 represents great value for the 2022 World Cup winner to score anytime at St Mary's.

Bet Builder - Both Teams to Score (Yes), Darwin Nunez (LIV) Anytime Goalscorer, Federico Chiesa (LIV) 2+ Shots, Wataru Endo (LIV) Carded @ 14/1

Southampton have failed to score in their last two games, blanking in defeats at Aston Villa (1-0) and home to Spurs (0-5); however, they had found the net in their previous three matches against Chelsea, Brighton and Liverpool, striking twice against the latter at St Mary's, and this time around, there won't be a Konate or Van Dijk looking to block their path.

The home side's starting XI on Wednesday is anyone's guess but with morale so low, I can't imagine Rusk will send out a weak team, while we know that Liverpool will make wholesale changes, so there should be opportunities for the Saints to grab a goal or two. The Reds haven't kept a clean sheet in this season's competition, beating West Ham United 5-1 at Anfield on September 25 before edging past Brighton 3-2 at the Amex Stadium on October 30. The South Coast side, meanwhile, conceded twice in a 3-2 victory over Stoke City in the last 16 on October 29 and haven't shut out the opposition in their last six matches.

Mac Allister is my value pick in the anytime goalscorer market but in terms of someone who I think is most likely to find the net on Wednesday, it has to be Liverpool striker Nunez. The Uruguayan hasn't found the net in any of his previous eight appearances for club and country, last scoring in the Reds' 2-0 victory over Aston Villa at Anfield on November 9, and supporters' patience is wearing thin.

This game, then, provides the perfect opportunity for him to get a few fans back on his side. Salah, Cody Gakpo and Luis Diaz are unlikely to feature from the off, if at all, on Wednesday, so Nunez will be the main focal point, as he so often is with the Uruguay national team, and he should relish that responsibility with most of the chances falling his way. Against this wretched Saints side, he surely has to take one.

Nunez should receive support from Italian winger Chiesa, who has made just three appearances for the Merseyside club since joining from Juventus in the summer. The 27-year-old has had trouble getting up to speed with the intensity of English football but returned to the squad on the weekend and is in line to start at St Mary's and get some vital minutes into his legs.

Chiesa's only previous start for Liverpool came in this competition against West Ham in September and despite playing less than an hour, he managed to fire off two shots, as he did in his only Premier League appearance against AFC Bournemouth four days earlier.

The Italy international averaged 2.3 shots per game in Serie A last season and averaged two shots per game across four appearances (three starts) at Euro 2024 in the summer, so he looks a good bet to record two shots in midweek, even if he only lasts less than an hour again.

Finally, I'm backing Liverpool and Japan midfielder Endo to pick up a booking. The 31-year-old was immense for the Reds last season, breaking up the play in the middle of the park before distributing the ball to better passers like Alexander-Arnold and Mac Allister.

Endo's game time has been limited under Slot but he should play the majority, if not all, of Wednesday's cup tie, and that marks him out as the number one candidate to go into the referee's notebook.

The former Stuttgart captain received 12 yellow cards for Liverpool in 2023/24, including 10 in 29 Premier League outings, while one of his other two came in the Carabao Cup. He's already been cautioned in this season's competition, seeing yellow in the 51st minute at Brighton before being taken off 13 minutes later, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the thick of the action on the South Coast again.

Endo committed two fouls in the round of 32 against West Ham and conceded another couple of free-kicks against the Seagulls - maintaining that average could see him booked on Wednesday.

Offers

Double Delight & Hat-Trick Heaven: Place a pre-match single bet on the first goalscorer market and get DOUBLE or TREBLE the odds if your winning First Goalscorer bet scores a 2nd and 3rd.

Build your own Bet Builder bet (3/1+) of 4+ legs on any EFL Cup on Wednesday and get 50% of your stake back in Free Bets up to £5 if you lose. (Credited within 24 hours)

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down

You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.