Liverpool vs Southampton Prediction: Saints to give Reds run for their money

Carabao Cup champions as recently as two seasons ago, 2024/25 runners-up Liverpool will be looking to avoid an early exit on Tuesday (20:00 BST, ITV1), when they host EFL Championship side Southampton in the third round at Anfield.

Below are my Liverpool vs Southampton predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Curtis Jones made his return from a two-game injury absence in Saturday's 2-1 Merseyside derby victory over Everton, and the 24-year-old is likely to be one of 11 new starters on Tuesday as Arne Slot rotates his team ahead of Saturday's Premier League trip to Crystal Palace.

Georgian goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili and Italian centre-back Giovanni Leoni are expected to make their competitive debuts for the Reds, while fellow summer signings Jeremie Frimpong, Florian Wirtz and Alexander Isak could all also start against Southampton, with Frimpong remaining on the bench at the weekend and Wirtz and Isak only appearing as second-half substitutes.

Joe Gomez, Andy Robertson, Wataru Endo and Federico Chiesa are likely to provide the experience in the starting XI, with two teenagers, Trey Nyoni (18) and Rio Ngumoha (17), hoping to join the quartet.

Alisson Becker, Virgil van Dijk, Ryan Gravenberch and Mohamed Salah are among the first-team stars who could be handed a complete rest in midweek.

Liverpool haven't reported any major injuries or suspensions, but 20-year-old midfielder Stefan Bajcetic, who spent last season on loan at Red Bull Salzburg and Las Palmas, is still working his way back from a hamstring problem.

Football Odds

Southampton left-back Welington (ankle) has been out injured since being withdrawn in the 21st minute of the 2-1 home defeat to Stoke City on August 23, and the Brazilian will miss out again on Tuesday.

Head coach Will Still could make wholesale changes following Saturday's 3-1 defeat at Hull City, with the likes of Alex McCarthy, Nathan Wood, Elias Jelert, Flynn Downes, Leo Scienza, Cameron Archer and Adam Armstrong set to come into the starting XI.

Today's Football Fixtures

Liverpool vs Southampton Odds

Liverpool did the league double over Southampton last season, beating the Saints 3-2 at St Mary's and 3-1 at Anfield, either side of a 2-1 victory on the South Coast in the Carabao Cup quarter-finals. The Reds (1/7) are huge favourites to win in regulation time on Tuesday, with an implied probability of 87.5%, while the visitors are 18/1, or a 5.3% chance, to shock Slot's side.

The draw, which would take the tie to a penalty shootout, is priced at 15/2, and both teams to score is on offer at 1/1.

Betfred are offering three Price Boosts on this game, including Liverpool to Win to Nil, Liverpool 7+ Corners and Isak to Score at Anytime at 6/1 (was 5/1).

Match Result & Both Teams to Score - Liverpool & Yes @ 7/5

I could harp on about Liverpool only keeping two clean sheets in seven games this season, and conceding twice in five of them, but, really, those statistics are insignificant as Slot prepares to make wholesale changes to his starting XI. Mamardashvili and Leoni are yet to play a minute this season, so is what Alisson and Ibrahima Konate have done likely to impact how the Georgian and Italian play on Tuesday against a second-tier side?

More relevant is the fact that Liverpool will be fielding a starting XI that have next-to-no experience playing with each other, and that's a particularly important point to consider for the back line, as that is where consistency is key.

Mamardashvili and Leoni will be taking to the field for the first time as Reds, while Gomez has featured just twice off the bench this season. Robertson and Frimpong, meanwhile, have only started twice and three times, respectively, and the latter has only recently returned from an injury, just like Jones, who will likely be starting in midfield alongside Nyoni and Endo, neither of whom have featured for Liverpool this month.

I know Southampton could name a second-string side, too, but they have a little more experience playing together, with the Saints already in Carabao Cup action twice this season, playing experimental teams in victories at Northampton (0-1) and Norwich City (0-3).

The visitors, while placing the Carabao Cup at the bottom of their priorities, will be desperate to put in a positive performance following a five-match winless run in the Championship that has heaped the pressure on Still, who possesses a strong squad at that level. Even though the former Reims and Lens boss is likely to make plenty of changes to his starting XI, he can still call upon some really experienced and exciting options that can pose Liverpool plenty of problems on Tuesday night.

Liverpool have conceded and won in the first three rounds of the last two Carabao Cup campaigns, showing that, despite boasting one of the strongest squads in the country, making wholesale changes to the team can lead to disruption.

Southampton could catch the Reds cold on Tuesday, but ultimately, there is enough quality in the home starting XI and on the bench for Slot's side to progress to the fourth round without requiring penalties.

Anytime Goalscorer - Jeremie Frimpong (LIV) @ 7/2

This looks like the perfect game for Liverpool's No. 30 to double his goal tally with the Reds.

The Dutchman was a frequent goalscorer for his previous club Bayer Leverkusen in his final three seasons, netting 28 times in 143 appearances, most of which came as a right wing-back.

Frimpong now starts for Liverpool, on paper, as a more traditional right-back, but with the reigning Premier League champions usually dominating the ball, he's often found in more advanced positions, as seen in last Wednesday's 3-2 victory over Atletico Madrid in the Uefa Champions League, when he nearly scored against the Spaniards in the 42nd minute; the 24-year-old appeared destined to roll the ball into an empty net, but the timing was slightly off and he ended up mis-kicking it.

Still, it meant the Netherlands international kept up his record of taking a shot in every game for Liverpool, recording five efforts across four appearances, the first of which saw him score on his debut against Crystal Palace in the FA Community Shield.

Frimpong was left on the bench against Everton at the weekend, with Conor Bradley playing the full duration, so I'm expecting the Dutchman to start on Tuesday and get a good 60-70 minutes, at least, in the locker.

The likes of Isak (3/5), Chiesa and Ngumoha (both 6/5) aren't providing much value in the anytime goalscorer market, so I think Frimpong is the man to consider if you're thinking of backing someone on the home side to find the net on Tuesday.

Offers

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