Burnley vs Millwall Prediction: Nervy affair at the Turf?

Burnley are still in contention to win the Championship title, and they will want to hit 100 points on the final day with victory over Millwall. They’ve been excellent this season and will need a Leeds United slip-up at Plymouth Argyle to take top spot, but given Argyle’s upturn in form, that’s not out of the question.

Millwall also have a play-off place to compete for, and this vital game kicks off live on Sky Sports+ at 12:30. Below you can find my Burnley vs Millwall predictions. 

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More of the same from Scott Parker? Probably. The secret to Burnley’s success this season has been his ability to find his best XI and trust them to perform, so it’s unlikely that will change too much on the final day. 

The desire they showed in the 5-0 hammering of QPR was impressive, and I think Parker may name an unchanged XI even though there is plenty of competition. Zian Flemming led the line and bagged a brace but is unable to play against his 'parent' club while Jeremy Sarmiento has been patient all season and scored twice off the bench. 

The midfield trio of Hannibal Mejbri, Josh Brownhill and Josh Cullen is working nicely, with Josh Laurent demoted to the bench, while Jaidon Anthony continues to shine on the left wing. Marcus Edwards may return on the right wing in place of Luca Koleosho as Parker targets the title. 

Alex Neil has transformed Millwall’s season and a 1-0 win over Swansea has given them a shot on the final day. George Saville scored that vital goal and will start behind Josh Coburn, with Mihailo Ivanovic playing in a wider role on Saturday. That flexibility could be helpful for Neil for this tough away game, which it looks as though Millwall will have to win. 

Given their goal difference and the fact that Coventry face Middlesbrough, a draw wouldn't be enough to get them above Bristol City, while Boro would also overtake them on goal difference if they secure all three points at the CBS Arena. They need to go to Turf Moor and win. 

Burnley vs Millwall Odds

Burnley are the favourites to win this game at 4/6, giving them an implied win probably of 60%. Millwall are 9/2 to win this away match, while a draw can be backed at 11/4 on Saturday. 

Over 2.5 goals is priced at 11/10 having only come in during 31% of Burnley’s games, while BTTS is 1/1. Brownhill is 6/1 to open the scoring having hit the net 16 times already this term. 

Under 2.5 goals @ 8/11 

Burnley’s last four games have all seen over 2.5 goals and they scored five at QPR last time out, but I think this will be a very different affair to what we have seen of late. Parker deserves massive credit and has just been named Championship Manager of the Season by the EFL, and they’ve won promotion based on their incredible defensive record. 

30 clean sheets in 45 league games and 15 goals conceded - the records keep on tumbling for this team. They’ve not conceded more than one goal in any Championship game this term, which might be the most impressive stat of the lot. I think they will keep things tight at the back again here, while they are also coming up against a Millwall outfit that has kept three clean sheets in their last five matches. 

Neil will focus on trying to make his side hard to beat, and then try and win the game late on, so I think under 2.5 goals is the sensible selection to get us started. 

No goalscorer @ 17/2 

On the same theory, I think there is a big price on there being no goalscorer at Turf Moor. Now both Burnley and Millwall probably need to win this game to realise their ambitions, but I can see it being a tense and nervy affair for at least an hour. The score in the Plymouth v Leeds game will dictate a lot during this 90 minutes. 

If Leeds race into an early lead then the title is theirs and the momentum could disappear from Burnley’s sails. Millwall will be happy to keep things tight until the dying stages and then push for all three points that could take them into the top six. They’ll know what they have to do by that point and could take advantage if others slip up. 0-0 is the same price here, but by backing No goalscorer instead, we will also be onto a winner if the only goal scored is an own goal.

Worth a punt on what is going to be a nervy final day. 

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