Burnley vs Middlesbrough Prediction: Immovable object meets unstoppable force

We’ve got a sizzler of a Championship clash coming our way on Friday night as second-placed Burnley host fifth-placed Middlesbrough at Turf Moor. This one is live on Sky Sports Main Event with kick-off at 20:00, and with only six points between the two teams, is a massive game in terms of the race for promotion. 

It also pits the best defence in the second tier against the best attack, so something will have to give in this crucial Friday night encounter. Keep on reading below for my Burnley vs Middlesbrough prediction. 

Team News

Burnley’s injury issues don’t appear to be impacting them too much this season, and they can be thankful for the deep squad they built over the summer. Importantly, Josh Brownhill returned from injury to score a penalty off the bench against Stoke and he is now in competition with Josh Laurent and Josh Cullen for a starting berth. 

Mike Tresor, Manuel Benson, Lyle Foster, Jordan Beyer, Joe Worrall, Hjamlar Ekdal and Hannes Delcroix are all set to return over the festive period which could leave Scott Parker with some difficult decisions to make regarding his bloated matchday squad. Aaron Ramsay remains out for the long-term with an ACL injury. 

Jay Rodriguez has improved Burnley’s attack with his introduction into the starting XI, giving the Clarets a focal point that Zian Flemming was simply not offering. The former Millwall forward is more of a number 10 than a nine, and seemed to find himself in congested areas - whereas Rodriguez will get himself into the box when possible. 

Jeremy Sarmiento has impressed in that number 10 role recently, flanked by Luca Koleosho and Jaidon Anthony, but Parker may choose to be more conservative by naming Hannibal Mejbri in the hole, with Brownhill another option to play further up the pitch. The defensive unit of James Trafford, Conor Roberts, CJ Egan-Riley and Maxime Esteve will remain unchanged, while I’d expect Lucas Pires to return at left-back in place of Bashir Humphreys. 

For Middlesbrough, Michael Carrick must once again decide which number nine to play, with Emmanuel Latte Lath and Tommy Conway both in top form. Unfortunately, only one can play in his 4-2-3-1 system, supported by the in-form number 10 Finn Azaz and the phenomenal Ben Doak from the right wing. 

Delano Burgzorg started on the left against Hull, but Isaiah Jones is a more defensively minded option if Carrick also looks to play things safe. They received a boost last time out as Hayden Hackney made his long-awaited return to the midfield, and he should start again alongside Dan Barlaser or Jonny Howson. 

Unfortunately for Boro, Aidan Morris remains out until the new year and he is joined on the sidelines by Darragh Lenihan, Rav van den Berg and Riley McGree. That trio are expected to return before the end of the year while goalkeeper Seny Dieng should return having missed the last game through illness. 

Burnley vs Middlesbrough Odds

Having won five and drawn three of their home matches this season, Burnley are priced at 13/10 to win this game, giving them an implied win probability of 43%. Carrick’s Middlesbrough are 2/1 to secure all three points having scored 13 goals in their last three away games. 

These two last drew in Lancashire in 2016, and a draw here can be backed at 9/4. Over 2.5 goals is 11/10 and BTTS is 4/5, with the two teams at opposite ends of the table for those two particular statistics. Rodriguez is 6/1 to open the scoring having hit two goals so far this season for the Clarets.

Under 2.5 goals @ 4/6

So, what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immoveable object? Well, we are about to find out. The unstoppable force in this case is Middlesbrough's vibrant and wonderful attack. They’ve now scored a whopping 32 goals in 18 league matches, and Carrick appears to have the tactical nous to overcome most opponents in this division. However, they are coming up against the stagnant winning machine that is Burnley Football Club. 

They’ve now conceded just six goals in 18 matches, which is a record akin to the one Jose Mourinho posted as Chelsea manager in his early years - when they conceded 15 goals in a 38-game Premier League season. They’ve got one of the best goalkeepers in the league in Trafford, while Esteve is far too good to be playing at this level. 

Over 2.5 goals has only come in during three of Burnley’s 18 games so far, giving them a ‘success’ rate of 17 per cent, the lowest in the division by some margin. Meanwhile, despite Boro’s attacking strength, their figure stands at 44 per cent - so I’m more than happy to back this to be another stodgy affair at the Turf.